Indonesia - Singapore Trade 2025 Q1: Deficit Widens

Key Market Takeaways: Indonesia - Singapore Trade

The bilateral trade relationship between Indonesia and Singapore reflects a persistent deficit for Indonesia amid mixed export growth and declining imports in Q1 2025.

• Economic Pulse: Indonesia posted a $1.63B trade deficit with Singapore (exports: $2.96B, imports: $4.59B), with imports down YoY across all three months.
• Exchange Structure: The trade is dominated by HS 27 (Mineral fuels) on both sides—Indonesia supplies raw/semi-processed materials, while Singapore adds value through refining and re-export.
• Strategic Interdependence: A resource-for-resource dynamic underscores Singapore’s role as a regional energy hub, with Indonesia dependent on refined fuel imports despite its crude exports.

This bilateral trade snapshot is based on verified customs data from the yTrade database.

Indonesia-Singapore Trade Trend in Q1 2025

Indonesia Export Performance: Shipments to Singapore

• Total Volume: $2.96B in Q1 2025.
• Growth Trend & Context:
  • YoY growth was mixed: January (-5.32%) and March (+1.0%) showed marginal declines or stagnation, while February (+13.09%) rebounded sharply.
  • No specific trade news or policy changes were reported to explain these fluctuations.
• Key Volatility: March saw the highest MoM surge (+17.68%), signaling a late-quarter recovery.

Indonesia Import Performance: Sourcing from Singapore

• Total Volume: $4.59B in Q1 2025.
• Growth Trend & Context:
  • Persistent YoY declines: January (-14.93%), February (-3.34%), March (-11.97%), suggesting weakened demand or supply constraints.
  • No relevant news to contextualize the downtrend.
• Key Volatility: February posted the strongest MoM growth (+17.67%), though YoY remained negative.

Indonesia - Singapore Trade Balance & Market Dynamics

• Net Position: Trade deficit of $1.63B (Exports $2.96B vs. Imports $4.59B).
• Relationship Status: Indonesia remains a net importer from Singapore, with imports exceeding exports by 55% in Q1. The consistent YoY import contraction hints at potential demand shifts or inventory adjustments.

Indonesia Import Trend from Singapore 2025 Q1 (Source: yTrade)**

Indonesia Export Trend to Singapore 2025 Q1 (Source: yTrade)**

Get Historical Indonesia Singapore Trade Records

Indonesia-Singapore Top Trading Products in Q1 2025

Indonesia Export Profile: What Does Indonesia Sell to Singapore

• Top Commodity: Rank #1 export is HS 27 (Mineral fuels, oils, distillation products) at 38.34% of total exports.
• Demand Driver: Singapore uses these for industrial processing and energy needs, leveraging Indonesia's resource base.
• Concentration: Trade is moderately concentrated, with HS 27 accounting for over a third of exports.

Indonesia Import Profile: What Does Indonesia Buy from Singapore

• Top Commodity: Rank #1 import is HS 27 (Mineral fuels, oils, distillation products) at 57.80% of total imports.
• Dependency Nature: Reflects energy security dependency, likely involving refined petroleum products or re-exports.

Indonesia - Singapore Trade Relationship Dynamics

• The Exchange Model: Resource-for-Resource Trade, with both sides exchanging similar HS 27 products—likely crude vs. refined fuels or specialized derivatives.
• Value Chain Position: Singapore holds higher value-add, given its refining and trading hub status, while Indonesia supplies raw or semi-processed materials.

Import Analysis by Product: Singapore to Indonesia (Source: yTrade)

Export Analysis by Product: Indonesia to Singapore (Source: yTrade)

Check Detailed Indonesia-Singapore Trade HS Code Breakdown

Future Outlook & Strategic Recommendations

Forecast

Indonesia’s trade with Singapore in Q1 2025 reveals a persistent deficit, driven by volatile export performance and declining imports. The rebound in February exports (+13.09% YoY) and March’s MoM surge (+17.68%) suggest potential recovery, but sustained import contraction (-11.97% YoY in March) signals weakened demand or supply chain adjustments. Given Singapore’s role as a refining hub and Indonesia’s reliance on energy trade (HS 27), the deficit may persist unless Indonesia diversifies exports or secures higher-value agreements. Traders should anticipate moderate export growth but prepare for import volatility amid shifting energy dynamics.

Strategic Moves

• Diversify Export Markets: Reduce reliance on HS 27 (38.34% of exports) by promoting non-energy sectors like processed foods or textiles to Singapore’s consumer market.
• Negotiate Refinery Partnerships: Leverage Indonesia’s crude oil exports to secure joint ventures with Singaporean refiners, capturing more value in the supply chain.
• Optimize Import Substitution: Address the $1.63B deficit by sourcing alternative suppliers for refined fuels (HS 27, 57.80% of imports) or boosting domestic refining capacity.

Frequently Asked Questions

How did Indonesia - Singapore trade perform in 2025 Q1?

Indonesia's exports to Singapore totaled $2.96B, with mixed YoY growth (-5.32% in January, +13.09% in February). Imports from Singapore fell YoY to $4.59B, marking a persistent decline across all months.

What are the top exports from Indonesia to Singapore?

HS 27 (Mineral fuels, oils, distillation products) dominated, accounting for 38.34% of Indonesia's exports to Singapore, driven by industrial and energy demand.

What does Indonesia import from Singapore?

HS 27 (Mineral fuels, oils, distillation products) was also the top import, representing 57.80% of total imports, reflecting energy security dependency or re-exports.

What is the trade balance between Indonesia and Singapore?

Indonesia recorded a trade deficit of $1.63B with Singapore in Q1 2025, as imports exceeded exports by 55%. The YoY import decline suggests potential demand shifts.