Indonesia - Philippines Trade 2023 Q3: Stagnant Growth, $2.29B Surplus
Key Market Takeaways: Indonesia - Philippines Trade
The bilateral trade relationship between Indonesia and Philippines remains stable with stagnant growth in Q3 2023.
- Economic Pulse: Indonesia holds a $2.29B trade surplus, exporting $2.65B to the Philippines while importing $361.84M—a 7x export dominance. Volatility in monthly flows hints at uneven demand.
- Exchange Structure: Indonesia - Philippines trade statistics reveal a resource-for-tech complementarity: vehicles (HS 87) and fuels (HS 27) flow out, while high-tech machinery (HS 85) dominates imports.
- Strategic Interdependence: The Philippines holds higher value-add in electrical machinery, while Indonesia supplies critical raw materials—a lopsided but stable exchange.
This bilateral trade snapshot is based on verified customs data from the yTrade database.
Indonesia-Philippines Trade Trend in Q3 2023
Indonesia Export Performance: Shipments to Philippines
- Total Volume: $2.65B in Q3 2023.
- Growth Trend & Context: YoY growth flat (0.0%), indicating stagnant demand or pricing stability. No significant policy shifts or disruptions noted.
- Key Volatility: August saw a 14.13% MoM surge, followed by a 7.74% drop in September, suggesting uneven demand or inventory adjustments.
Indonesia Import Performance: Sourcing from Philippines
- Total Volume: $361.84M in Q3 2023.
- Growth Trend & Context: YoY growth flat (0.0%), reflecting steady supply conditions. No news-driven disruptions.
- Key Volatility: September imports spiked 20.21% MoM, potentially due to pre-holiday stockpiling or delayed shipments.
Indonesia - Philippines Trade Balance & Market Dynamics
- Net Position: Trade surplus of $2.29B (Exports $2.65B - Imports $361.84M).
- Relationship Status: Indonesia dominates as a net exporter, with exports exceeding imports by over 7x, highlighting strong export reliance on the Philippine market.
Indonesia Import Trend from Philippines 2023 Q3 (Source: yTrade)**
| Month | Value | MoM | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jul | 111.79M | 3.97% | 0.0% |
| Aug | 113.55M | 1.57% | 0.0% |
| Sep | 136.50M | 20.21% | 0.0% |
| Total | 361.84M | - | - |
Indonesia Export Trend to Philippines 2023 Q3 (Source: yTrade)**
| Month | Value | MoM | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jul | 830.80M | -11.13% | 0.0% |
| Aug | 948.15M | 14.13% | 0.0% |
| Sep | 874.79M | -7.74% | 0.0% |
| Total | 2.65B | - | - |
Get Historical Indonesia Philippines Trade Records
Indonesia-Philippines Top Trading Products in Q3 2023
Indonesia Export Profile: What Does Indonesia Sell to Philippines
- Top Commodity: Rank #1 export is HS 87 (Vehicles, parts) at 27.89% of total exports.
- Demand Driver: Philippines imports vehicles and parts to serve its consumer market and automotive assembly needs.
- Concentration: Trade is moderately concentrated, with the top 2 categories (HS 87 and HS 27) accounting for 53.5% of exports.
Indonesia Import Profile: What Does Indonesia Buy from Philippines
- Top Commodity: Rank #1 import is HS 85 (Electrical machinery) at 43.81% of total imports.
- Dependency Nature: High-tech imports (HS 85, HS 84) suggest critical technology dependency for Indonesia's industrial and consumer electronics sectors.
Indonesia - Philippines Trade Relationship Dynamics
- The Exchange Model: Resource-for-Tech Complementarity. Indonesia exports raw materials (HS 27, HS 26) and vehicles, while importing high-tech machinery (HS 85, HS 84) from the Philippines.
- Value Chain Position: Philippines holds a higher value-add position, dominating in electrical machinery (HS 85), while Indonesia supplies lower-value intermediates like ores (HS 26) and fuels (HS 27).
Import Analysis by Product: Philippines to Indonesia (Source: yTrade)
| HS Code | Value | Percent |
|---|---|---|
| 85 | 158.53M | 43.81% |
| 84 | 33.16M | 9.16% |
| 74 | 32.37M | 8.94% |
| 27 | 29.77M | 8.23% |
| 87 | 19.38M | 5.36% |
| 39 | 13.43M | 3.71% |
| 90 | 9.73M | 2.69% |
| 26 | 7.39M | 2.04% |
| 15 | 7.12M | 1.97% |
| 36 | 7.05M | 1.95% |
Export Analysis by Product: Indonesia to Philippines (Source: yTrade)
| HS Code | Value | Percent |
|---|---|---|
| 87 | 740.05M | 27.89% |
| 27 | 679.63M | 25.61% |
| 21 | 151.34M | 5.70% |
| 26 | 120.94M | 4.56% |
| 15 | 118.35M | 4.46% |
| 84 | 89.56M | 3.37% |
| 24 | 81.75M | 3.08% |
| 85 | 69.16M | 2.61% |
| 72 | 66.82M | 2.52% |
| 48 | 56.89M | 2.14% |
Check Detailed Indonesia-Philippines Trade HS Code Breakdown
Future Outlook & Strategic Recommendations
Forecast
Indonesia’s trade surplus with the Philippines is expected to hold steady in Q4 2023, supported by sustained demand for vehicles (HS 87) and fuels (HS 27). However, flat YoY growth signals potential stagnation, requiring proactive measures to avoid a slowdown. The Philippines’ reliance on Indonesian exports and Indonesia’s tech dependency on Philippine electrical machinery (HS 85) suggest a stable but unoptimized trade relationship. Traders should anticipate moderate volatility, particularly in vehicle parts and high-tech imports, driven by inventory cycles and pre-holiday demand shifts.
Strategic Moves
- Lock in Long-Term Contracts for Critical Imports: Indonesian buyers of Philippine electrical machinery (HS 85) should secure fixed-price agreements to mitigate supply chain disruptions and price fluctuations.
- Diversify Export Markets for Vehicles (HS 87): Indonesian exporters must reduce overreliance on the Philippine market by targeting emerging Southeast Asian economies with growing automotive demand.
- Optimize Inventory for High-Tech Imports: Given the September spike in imports, Indonesian manufacturers should adopt just-in-time (JIT) strategies to balance stock levels and avoid overstocking ahead of Q4 demand swings.
Frequently Asked Questions
How did Indonesia - Philippines trade perform in 2023 Q3?
Indonesia's exports to the Philippines totaled $2.65B, with flat YoY growth (0.0%). Imports from the Philippines were $361.84M, also showing no YoY change.
What are the top exports from Indonesia to Philippines?
The top exports are HS 87 (Vehicles and parts) at 27.89% and HS 27 (Mineral fuels) together accounting for 53.5% of total exports.
What does Indonesia import from Philippines?
The top import is HS 85 (Electrical machinery) at 43.81% of total imports, reflecting Indonesia's reliance on high-tech goods from the Philippines.
What is the trade balance between Indonesia and Philippines?
Indonesia recorded a trade surplus of $2.29B, with exports exceeding imports by over 7x, maintaining a dominant net exporter position.
Indonesia - Philippines Trade 2023 Q2: Stagnant Growth
Indonesia's trade surplus with the Philippines hit $2.33B in Q2 2023, but growth stalled. Explore Indonesia Philippines trade trends and top trading products via yTrade data.
Indonesia - Philippines Trade 2023 Q4: $2.79B Surplus
Indonesia's $2.4B trade surplus with the Philippines highlights a resource-for-tech exchange. Explore Indonesia Philippines trade trends and top trading products via yTrade data.
