Indonesia - Philippines Trade 2023 Q2: Stagnant Growth
Key Market Takeaways: Indonesia - Philippines Trade
The bilateral trade relationship between Indonesia and Philippines remains heavily skewed in Indonesia’s favor, with stagnant growth in Q2 2023.
- Economic Pulse: Indonesia holds a $2.33B trade surplus ($2.65B exports vs. $323.32M imports), but both flows showed 0.0% YoY growth, signaling flat demand.
- Exchange Structure: Indonesia - Philippines trade statistics reveal a resource-for-tech complementarity—Indonesia supplies mineral fuels (38% of exports) and vehicles, while importing electrical machinery (46% of imports).
- Strategic Interdependence: The partnership is asymmetrical but stable, with Indonesia as the dominant exporter of raw materials and the Philippines supplying higher-value tech components.
This bilateral trade snapshot is based on verified customs data from the yTrade database.
Indonesia-Philippines Trade Trend in Q2 2023
Indonesia Export Performance: Shipments to Philippines
- Total Volume: $2.65B in Q2 2023.
- Growth Trend & Context: YoY growth remained flat (0.0%), indicating stagnant demand or pricing stability. No trade policy shifts were reported to explain this trend.
- Key Volatility: May saw a sharp 30.09% MoM surge, followed by a mild -3.45% correction in June.
Indonesia Import Performance: Sourcing from Philippines
- Total Volume: $323.32M in Q2 2023.
- Growth Trend & Context: YoY growth was neutral (0.0%), suggesting steady procurement volumes. No supply disruptions or policy changes were noted.
- Key Volatility: Imports plummeted -45.2% MoM in April, rebounding 48.67% in May before a -16.66% dip in June.
Indonesia - Philippines Trade Balance & Market Dynamics
- Net Position: Indonesia holds a trade surplus of $2.33B (Exports: $2.65B vs. Imports: $323.32M).
- Relationship Status: Dominant exporter role, with exports exceeding imports by 8.2x. Trade remains heavily skewed in Indonesia’s favor.
Indonesia Import Trend from Philippines 2023 Q2 (Source: yTrade)**
| Month | Value | MoM | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|
| Apr | 86.78M | -45.2% | 0.0% |
| May | 129.02M | 48.67% | 0.0% |
| Jun | 107.52M | -16.66% | 0.0% |
| Total | 323.32M | - | - |
Indonesia Export Trend to Philippines 2023 Q2 (Source: yTrade)**
| Month | Value | MoM | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|
| Apr | 744.35M | -22.85% | 0.0% |
| May | 968.31M | 30.09% | 0.0% |
| Jun | 934.89M | -3.45% | 0.0% |
| Total | 2.65B | - | - |
Get Historical Indonesia Philippines Trade Records
Indonesia-Philippines Top Trading Products in Q2 2023
Indonesia Export Profile: What Does Indonesia Sell to Philippines
- Top Commodity: Rank #1 export is HS 27 (Mineral fuels, oils) at 38.09% of total exports.
- Demand Driver: Philippines imports these for energy needs and industrial processing.
- Concentration: Trade is highly concentrated, with HS 27 and HS 87 (Vehicles) together accounting for 61.77% of exports.
Indonesia Import Profile: What Does Indonesia Buy from Philippines
- Top Commodity: Rank #1 import is HS 85 (Electrical machinery) at 46.30% of total imports.
- Dependency Nature: Reflects critical technology dependency, as HS 85 covers electronics and high-tech components.
Indonesia - Philippines Trade Relationship Dynamics
- The Exchange Model: Resource-for-Tech Complementarity. Indonesia exports energy (HS 27) and vehicles (HS 87) while importing electrical machinery (HS 85) and industrial inputs.
- Value Chain Position: Philippines holds higher value-add, supplying advanced electronics, while Indonesia provides raw materials and intermediate goods.
Import Analysis by Product: Philippines to Indonesia (Source: yTrade)
| HS Code | Value | Percent |
|---|---|---|
| 85 | 149.69M | 46.30% |
| 84 | 30.98M | 9.58% |
| 74 | 26.71M | 8.26% |
| 87 | 20.06M | 6.21% |
| 39 | 18.88M | 5.84% |
| 36 | 11.31M | 3.50% |
| 15 | 10.61M | 3.28% |
| 90 | 8.94M | 2.77% |
| 24 | 6.24M | 1.93% |
| 29 | 5.16M | 1.59% |
Export Analysis by Product: Indonesia to Philippines (Source: yTrade)
| HS Code | Value | Percent |
|---|---|---|
| 27 | 1.01B | 38.09% |
| 87 | 627.01M | 23.68% |
| 21 | 145.56M | 5.50% |
| 15 | 89.97M | 3.40% |
| 84 | 73.02M | 2.76% |
| 48 | 65.74M | 2.48% |
| 26 | 63.64M | 2.40% |
| 85 | 61.12M | 2.31% |
| 24 | 59.27M | 2.24% |
| 38 | 51.12M | 1.93% |
Check Detailed Indonesia-Philippines Trade HS Code Breakdown
Future Outlook & Strategic Recommendations
Forecast
Indonesia’s trade surplus with the Philippines is expected to hold steady in Q3 2023, supported by sustained demand for mineral fuels (HS 27) and vehicles (HS 87). However, flat YoY growth signals potential stagnation, requiring proactive measures to avoid a downturn. The Philippines’ reliance on Indonesian energy exports and Indonesia’s dependence on high-tech imports (HS 85) will maintain the resource-for-tech complementarity, but volatility in monthly trade flows suggests traders should prepare for short-term disruptions. Without policy shifts or new trade agreements, the Indonesia - Philippines trade forecast remains stable but lacks upward momentum.
Strategic Moves
- Lock in Energy Contracts: Indonesian exporters of mineral fuels should secure long-term supply agreements with Philippine buyers to stabilize revenue amid fluctuating monthly demand.
- Diversify Tech Suppliers: Indonesian importers must reduce overreliance on Philippine electronics (HS 85) by exploring alternative markets like Vietnam or Malaysia to mitigate supply chain risks.
- Expand Non-Commodity Exports: Indonesia should aggressively promote secondary exports (e.g., processed foods, textiles) to the Philippines to reduce dependence on HS 27 and HS 87, balancing the trade structure.
Frequently Asked Questions
How did Indonesia - Philippines trade perform in 2023 Q2?
Indonesia's exports to the Philippines totaled $2.65B with 0.0% YoY growth, while imports were $323.32M, also showing flat YoY growth.
What are the top exports from Indonesia to Philippines?
Mineral fuels and oils (HS 27) and vehicles (HS 87) dominate, accounting for 61.77% of Indonesia's exports to the Philippines.
What does Indonesia import from Philippines?
Electrical machinery (HS 85) is the top import, making up 46.30% of Indonesia's purchases from the Philippines.
What is the trade balance between Indonesia and Philippines?
Indonesia holds a $2.33B trade surplus, with exports exceeding imports by 8.2x, maintaining a dominant exporter position.
Indonesia - Philippines Trade 2023 Q1: Resource-for-Tech Exchange
Indonesia's $2.54B trade surplus with Philippines highlights a resource-for-tech exchange, with mineral fuels and electrical machinery leading Indonesia Philippines trade trends. Data via yTrade.
Indonesia - Philippines Trade 2023 Q3: Stagnant Growth, $2.29B Surplus
Indonesia's trade surplus with the Philippines hit $2.29B in Q3 2023, fueled by vehicle & fuel exports. Explore Indonesia Philippines trade trends & top trading products via yTrade data.
