Indonesia - Philippines Trade 2023 Q1: Resource-for-Tech Exchange

Key Market Takeaways: Indonesia - Philippines Trade

The bilateral trade relationship between Indonesia and Philippines shows growth with notable volatility in Q1 2023.

• Indonesia dominates with a $2.54B trade surplus, exporting $2.95B (mixed YoY growth) while importing $413.93M (strong early-year growth).
• Resource-for-Tech exchange: Indonesia supplies mineral fuels (33.54% of exports) and vehicles, while Philippines exports high-value electrical machinery (43.74% of imports).
• Complementary but asymmetric: Philippines holds higher value-add in tech, while Indonesia leverages commodity strength.

This bilateral trade snapshot is based on verified customs data from the yTrade database.

Indonesia-Philippines Trade Trend in Q1 2023

Indonesia Export Performance: Shipments to Philippines

• Total Volume: $2.95B in Q1 2023.
• Growth Trend & Context:
  • YoY growth was mixed: +62.09% in January, +14.35% in February, but -9.12% in March.
  • No specific trade news to explain the volatility.
• Key Volatility: February saw an -8.38% MoM drop, while March rebounded slightly (+1.7%).

Indonesia Import Performance: Sourcing from Philippines

• Total Volume: $413.93M in Q1 2023.
• Growth Trend & Context:
  • Strong YoY growth in January (+24.85%) and February (+25.3%), but slowed sharply in March (+9.81%).
• Key Volatility: March recorded a 22.08% MoM surge, the highest quarterly spike.

Indonesia - Philippines Trade Balance & Market Dynamics

• Net Position: Trade surplus of $2.54B (Exports $2.95B vs. Imports $413.93M).
• Relationship Status: Indonesia dominates as a net exporter, with exports nearly 7x imports.

Indonesia Import Trend from Philippines 2023 Q1 (Source: yTrade)**

Indonesia Export Trend to Philippines 2023 Q1 (Source: yTrade)**

Get Historical Indonesia Philippines Trade Records

Indonesia-Philippines Top Trading Products in Q1 2023

Indonesia Export Profile: What Does Indonesia Sell to Philippines

• Top Commodity: Rank #1 export is Mineral Fuels (HS 27) at 33.54% of total exports.
• Demand Driver: Philippines imports these for energy needs and industrial processing.
• Concentration: Trade is moderately concentrated, with the top two categories (HS 27 & 87) accounting for 60.76% of exports.

Indonesia Import Profile: What Does Indonesia Buy from Philippines

• Top Commodity: Rank #1 import is Electrical Machinery (HS 85) at 43.74% of total imports.
• Dependency Nature: Reflects critical technology dependency, as HS 85 covers high-value electronics and components.

Indonesia - Philippines Trade Relationship Dynamics

• The Exchange Model: Resource-for-Tech Complementarity. Indonesia exports raw materials (mineral fuels, vehicles) and imports high-tech goods (electrical machinery).
• Value Chain Position: Philippines holds higher value-add, dominating tech exports (HS 85, 84) while Indonesia supplies bulk commodities (HS 27, 26).

Import Analysis by Product: Philippines to Indonesia (Source: yTrade)

Export Analysis by Product: Indonesia to Philippines (Source: yTrade)

Check Detailed Indonesia-Philippines Trade HS Code Breakdown

Future Outlook & Strategic Recommendations

Forecast

Indonesia’s trade surplus with the Philippines is expected to hold steady in Q2 2023, driven by sustained demand for mineral fuels (HS 27) and vehicles (HS 87). However, the volatility in monthly export growth signals potential supply chain disruptions or pricing fluctuations, requiring close monitoring. Meanwhile, the Philippines’ tech-driven exports (HS 85) will likely maintain their upward trajectory, reinforcing the resource-for-tech exchange model. Traders should prepare for tighter margins in energy exports if global commodity prices soften, while Indonesian importers of high-value electronics must anticipate supply-side constraints.

Strategic Moves

• Lock in Long-Term Fuel Contracts: Indonesian exporters should secure fixed-price agreements with Philippine buyers to mitigate price volatility and ensure stable revenue streams.
• Diversify Tech Imports: Reduce overreliance on Philippine electronics by exploring alternative suppliers in Vietnam or Malaysia to hedge against supply chain risks.
• Accelerate Trade Facilitation: Both governments should streamline customs procedures, particularly for high-volume commodities like mineral fuels, to reduce delays and stabilize shipment schedules.

Frequently Asked Questions

How did Indonesia - Philippines trade perform in 2023 Q1?

Indonesia's exports to the Philippines totaled $2.95B in Q1 2023, with mixed YoY growth (+62.09% in January, -9.12% in March). Imports from the Philippines reached $413.93M, showing strong YoY growth early in the quarter.

What are the top exports from Indonesia to Philippines?

Mineral Fuels (HS 27) dominated Indonesia's exports to the Philippines, accounting for 33.54% of total exports, followed by vehicles (HS 87), together making up 60.76% of shipments.

What does Indonesia import from Philippines?

Electrical Machinery (HS 85) was the top import, representing 43.74% of Indonesia's imports from the Philippines, highlighting a reliance on high-tech electronics and components.

What is the trade balance between Indonesia and Philippines?

Indonesia maintained a trade surplus of $2.54B in Q1 2023, with exports nearly 7x higher than imports, reinforcing its position as a net exporter to the Philippines.