Indonesia - Philippines Trade 2023 Q4: $2.79B Surplus

Key Market Takeaways: Indonesia - Philippines Trade

The bilateral trade relationship between Indonesia and Philippines remains stable but lopsided, with Indonesia dominating as a net exporter in Q4 2023.

• $2.79B Surplus: Indonesia holds a $2.4B trade surplus, exporting 7x more to the Philippines than it imports ($392.37M). Volatility in exports (sharp MoM swings) contrasts with steady imports.
• Resource-for-Tech Trade: Indonesia - Philippines trade statistics reveal a complementary exchange—Indonesia supplies mineral fuels (25.7% of exports) while importing high-tech electrical machinery (37.5% of imports).
• Asymmetric Interdependence: The Philippines holds the higher value-add position, but Indonesia’s commodity exports anchor the partnership.

This bilateral trade snapshot is based on verified customs data from the yTrade database.

Indonesia-Philippines Trade Trend in Q4 2023

Indonesia Export Performance: Shipments to Philippines

• Total Volume: $2.79B in Q4 2023.
• Growth Trend & Context: YoY growth flat (0.0%), but MoM volatility was significant—October surged 17.64%, followed by sharp declines in November (-9.51%) and December (-10.93%).
• Key Volatility: October was the peak month ($1.03B), while December saw the lowest exports ($829.46M).

Indonesia Import Performance: Sourcing from Philippines

• Total Volume: $392.37M in Q4 2023.
• Growth Trend & Context: YoY growth flat (0.0%). MoM shifts were modest, with November showing the highest imports ($134.36M) and October the lowest ($123.33M).
• Key Volatility: November marked the peak month, though MoM changes were minor (<9%).

Indonesia - Philippines Trade Balance & Market Dynamics

• Net Position: Trade surplus of $2.4B (Exports $2.79B vs. Imports $392.37M).
• Relationship Status: Indonesia dominates as a net exporter, with exports to the Philippines 7x higher than imports. Trade remains lopsided but stable YoY.

Indonesia Import Trend from Philippines 2023 Q4 (Source: yTrade)**

Indonesia Export Trend to Philippines 2023 Q4 (Source: yTrade)**

Get Historical Indonesia Philippines Trade Records

Indonesia-Philippines Top Trading Products in Q4 2023

Indonesia Export Profile: What Does Indonesia Sell to Philippines

• Top Commodity: Rank #1 export is Mineral Fuels (HS 27) at 25.73% of total exports.
• Demand Driver: Philippines imports these for energy needs and industrial processing.
• Concentration: The top 3 exports (HS 27, 87, 26) account for 58.65% of total exports, indicating moderate concentration.

Indonesia Import Profile: What Does Indonesia Buy from Philippines

• Top Commodity: Rank #1 import is Electrical Machinery (HS 85) at 37.49% of total imports.
• Dependency Nature: Critical technology dependency, as HS 85 covers high-tech components.

Indonesia - Philippines Trade Relationship Dynamics

• The Exchange Model: Resource-for-Tech Complementarity. Indonesia exports raw materials (mineral fuels, ores) while importing high-tech goods (electrical machinery).
• Value Chain Position: Philippines holds the higher value-add position, supplying advanced electronics (HS 85) and machinery (HS 84), while Indonesia provides commodities.

Import Analysis by Product: Philippines to Indonesia (Source: yTrade)

Export Analysis by Product: Indonesia to Philippines (Source: yTrade)

Check Detailed Indonesia-Philippines Trade HS Code Breakdown

Future Outlook & Strategic Recommendations

Forecast

Indonesia’s trade surplus with the Philippines is expected to hold steady in 2024, driven by sustained demand for mineral fuels (HS 27) and industrial inputs. However, MoM volatility in exports signals potential supply chain disruptions or pricing fluctuations, requiring close monitoring. The resource-for-tech exchange model will remain dominant, but Indonesia should push for higher-value exports to reduce reliance on raw materials. Without diversification, the lopsided trade balance may face pressure from external shocks.

Strategic Moves

• Lock in Energy Contracts: Indonesian exporters of mineral fuels should secure long-term agreements with Philippine buyers to stabilize revenue amid volatile monthly shipments.
• Diversify Export Mix: Indonesia must invest in processing capabilities to move up the value chain, reducing over-dependence on commodity exports while capturing more tech-driven trade opportunities.
• Monitor Tech Imports: Given the critical role of electrical machinery (HS 85) imports, Indonesian manufacturers should assess alternative suppliers or domestic production to mitigate supply chain risks.

Frequently Asked Questions

How did Indonesia - Philippines trade perform in 2023 Q4?

Indonesia's exports to the Philippines totaled $2.79B in Q4 2023, with flat YoY growth but significant MoM volatility, while imports from the Philippines were $392.37M, also showing flat YoY growth.

What are the top exports from Indonesia to Philippines?

The top exports from Indonesia to the Philippines are Mineral Fuels (HS 27), Vehicles (HS 87), and Ores (HS 26), accounting for 58.65% of total exports.

What does Indonesia import from Philippines?

Indonesia primarily imports Electrical Machinery (HS 85) from the Philippines, which makes up 37.49% of total imports, reflecting a high-tech dependency.

What is the trade balance between Indonesia and Philippines?

Indonesia recorded a trade surplus of $2.4B with the Philippines in Q4 2023, with exports 7x higher than imports, maintaining a stable but lopsided trade relationship.