Indonesia Palm Oil HS151190 Export Data 2025 October Overview

Indonesia Palm Oil (HS 151190) 2025 October Export: Key Takeaways

Indonesia's Palm Oil Export (HS Code 151190) in October 2025 shows a balanced but concentrated buyer base, with China and Pakistan accounting for over 16% each, reflecting bulk commodity trade dynamics. The market remains stable, driven by volume rather than premium pricing, while regional Asian neighbors and higher-value Western buyers form distinct demand clusters. This analysis, covering October 2025, is based on cleanly processed Customs data from the yTrade database. Exporters must navigate policy shifts like Indonesia's 10% export levy and diversify toward premium markets to mitigate risks. The product's raw agricultural nature underscores the need for competitive pricing to secure large-volume buyers.

Indonesia Palm Oil (HS 151190) 2025 October Export Background

Indonesia Palm Oil (HS Code 151190) includes vegetable oils and fractions, refined but not chemically modified, vital for food, biofuels, and cosmetics due to its versatility. Global demand remains strong, driven by its cost efficiency and wide applications. In 2025, Indonesia adjusted export levies and tariffs multiple times, like the July hike to $91.09/MT [Global Trade Alert], reflecting its role as the world’s top exporter. October 2025 saw no major policy shifts, but Indonesia’s dominance in Palm Oil exports keeps it central to global supply chains.

Indonesia Palm Oil (HS 151190) 2025 October Export: Trend Summary

Key Observations

Indonesia's Palm Oil exports under HS Code 151190 totaled $1.41 billion in value and 1.31 billion kilograms in volume during October 2025, reflecting a sequential decline from September's performance.

Price and Volume Dynamics

The October figures represent a 5% month-over-month increase in export value but a 5% decrease in volume compared to September, indicating firmer pricing amid lower shipment quantities. This aligns with typical seasonal patterns where Q4 often sees moderated export volumes following peak mid-year harvest cycles. However, the full 2025 data shows elevated exports in June-August, suggesting earlier stock drawdowns ahead of policy shifts.

External Context and Outlook

Export volumes were likely constrained by Indonesia's series of 2025 levy hikes, including a May increase to 10% [USDA] and July's elevated plantation fund tariff (Global Trade Alert). These policies aimed to prioritize domestic biodiesel blending but suppressed export competitiveness. Ongoing negotiations for US tariff exemptions (Ukragroconsult) could support future Indonesia Palm Oil HS Code 151190 Export recovery, though 2025 October's performance remains pressured by these regulatory measures.

Indonesia Palm Oil (HS 151190) 2025 October Export: HS Code Breakdown

Product Specialization and Concentration

In October 2025, the Indonesia Palm Oil HS Code 151190 Export was dominated by the sub-code 1511903700, which represents vegetable oils; palm oil and its fractions, other than crude, whether or not refined, but not chemically modified. This sub-code held over half of the export value and weight, with a unit price of 1.05 USD per kilogram, indicating it is the primary bulk commodity in this category. No extreme price anomalies were present in the data, allowing all sub-codes to be included in the analysis.

Value-Chain Structure and Grade Analysis

The remaining sub-codes can be grouped into two categories based on unit price disparities. The first group includes codes like 1511902000 and 1511903100, with unit prices around 1.07 to 1.08 USD per kilogram, representing standard refined palm oil fractions. The second group, such as 1511903600 and 1511903900, has higher unit prices of 1.12 to 1.17 USD per kilogram, suggesting premium or more processed fractions. This structure shows a trade in differentiated goods with slight quality variations, rather than purely fungible bulk commodities tied to indices.

Strategic Implication and Pricing Power

For market players, the differentiation in palm oil fractions offers limited pricing power, as products remain largely commodity-like with small premium opportunities. [GAPKI] reported past export bans, and recent levy increases in 2025 (FAS USDA) could squeeze margins, emphasizing the need for cost efficiency and focus on higher-value segments to maintain competitiveness in Indonesia Palm Oil HS Code 151190 Export during October 2025.

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Indonesia Palm Oil (HS 151190) 2025 October Export: Market Concentration

Geographic Concentration and Dominant Role

Indonesia's Palm Oil HS Code 151190 Export in 2025 October shows a balanced split between two major buyers, with China Mainland and Pakistan both holding over 16% share of total export value. The unit price for these top partners falls near 1.04 USD/kg, confirming this is a bulk commodity trade where volume drives market access rather than product premium. This pattern fits a raw agricultural product where large-volume buyers secure supply through competitive pricing.

Partner Countries Clusters and Underlying Causes

The buyer list forms three clear groups. The first cluster includes China and Pakistan, which together take one-third of exports by volume, showing the core demand from major population centers. A second group contains the United States and Italy, whose higher value ratios suggest they buy more processed or specialty palm oil products. The third cluster comprises regional Asian neighbors like Bangladesh, Vietnam, and Myanmar, reflecting shorter supply chains and integrated regional trade flows for this commodity.

Forward Strategy and Supply Chain Implications

Exporters must track policy shifts closely, as Indonesia raised export levies for palm oil to 10% in May 2025 [USDA] and adjusts duties based on monthly reference prices (USDA). The push for zero U.S. tariffs [Ukragroconsult] also signals a strategic move to lock in premium markets. Diversifying beyond the top two buyers toward higher-value markets can mitigate risks from future levy changes or price fluctuations.

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Indonesia Palm Oil (HS 151190) 2025 October Export: Action Plan for Palm Oil Market Expansion

Strategic Supply Chain Overview

The Indonesia Palm Oil Export 2025 October under HS Code 151190 operates as a bulk commodity trade. Price is driven by volume-based demand from major buyers and slight quality variations in refined fractions, not by product innovation. Geopolitical risks, like Indonesia's recent export levy hikes and potential tariff changes, directly impact cost structures. This creates a supply chain focused on high-volume processing and shipment efficiency to key markets, with limited pricing power for exporters.

Action Plan: Data-Driven Steps for Palm Oil Market Execution

• Track monthly reference prices and levy adjustments from sources like USDA. This prevents cost surprises and maintains margin control in volatile policy environments.
• Use buyer purchase frequency data to identify core high-volume clients. Secure long-term contracts with them to ensure stable revenue despite market fluctuations.
• Analyze unit price disparities among HS sub-codes like 1511903600. Shift some production to higher-value fractions to capture small premiums and diversify income streams.
• Monitor geographic trade flows to markets like the U.S. and Italy. Prioritize shipments to these destinations when possible to benefit from their higher value ratios and reduce dependency on bulk buyers.
• Implement real-time compliance checks on export documentation for HS Code 151190. Avoid delays and penalties from regulation changes, ensuring smooth supply chain operations.

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Frequently Asked Questions

Q1. What is driving the recent changes in Indonesia Palm Oil Export 2025 October?

The 5% month-over-month value increase amid lower volumes reflects firmer pricing, likely due to Indonesia's 2025 export levy hikes and seasonal stock drawdowns after mid-year harvest peaks.

Q2. Who are the main partner countries in this Indonesia Palm Oil Export 2025 October?

China Mainland and Pakistan dominate, each holding over 16% of export value, followed by the United States and Italy, which purchase higher-value processed fractions.

Q3. Why does the unit price differ across Indonesia Palm Oil Export 2025 October partner countries?

Price variations stem from product differentiation: bulk fractions like 1511903700 trade at ~1.05 USD/kg, while premium codes (e.g., 1511903600) reach 1.12–1.17 USD/kg, targeting markets like the U.S. and Italy.

Q4. What should exporters in Indonesia focus on in the current Palm Oil export market?

Exporters must prioritize relationships with high-volume buyers (80% of value) while diversifying into premium markets to offset risks from levy-driven margin pressures.

Q5. What does this Indonesia Palm Oil export pattern mean for buyers in partner countries?

Major buyers like China and Pakistan benefit from stable bulk supply, while niche markets gain access to differentiated products, though all face price sensitivity from Indonesian policy shifts.

Q6. How is Palm Oil typically used in this trade flow?

The trade centers on vegetable oils for food and industrial use, with bulk fractions (e.g., refined palm oil) as commodities and processed fractions serving specialized applications.