Indonesia - Malaysia Trade 2025 Q3: Stagnant Growth

Key Market Takeaways: Indonesia - Malaysia Trade

The bilateral trade relationship between Indonesia and Malaysia shows muted momentum in 2025 Q3, with flat YoY growth and mixed monthly volatility.

• Economic Pulse: Indonesia maintains a $165.91M trade surplus with Malaysia ($1.04B exports vs. $874.09M imports), but stagnant YoY growth signals softening demand or supply constraints.
• Exchange Structure: The trade is dominated by resource-for-resource complementarity, with both countries exchanging mineral fuels (HS 27)—24.34% of Indonesia’s exports and 43.58% of its imports—highlighting energy-driven bilateral trade statistics.
• Strategic Interdependence: The relationship hinges on cross-border energy flows and raw material trade, lacking high-value manufacturing integration.

This bilateral trade snapshot is based on verified customs data from the yTrade database.

Indonesia-Malaysia Trade Trend in Q3 2025

Indonesia Export Performance: Shipments to Malaysia

• Total Volume: $1.04B in July 2025.
• Growth Trend & Context: YoY growth stagnated at 0.0%, indicating no year-over-year change. MoM declined by 3.65%, suggesting short-term softening in demand or supply constraints.
• Key Volatility: July’s MoM drop (-3.65%) marks the sharpest monthly contraction in the reported period.

Indonesia Import Performance: Sourcing from Malaysia

• Total Volume: $874.09M in July 2025.
• Growth Trend & Context: YoY growth flat at 0.0%, mirroring export trends. MoM rose by 2.51%, hinting at slight recovery or inventory restocking.
• Key Volatility: July’s MoM increase (2.51%) was the only notable monthly uptick.

Indonesia - Malaysia Trade Balance & Market Dynamics

• Net Position: Indonesia held a trade surplus of $165.91M ($1.04B exports - $874.09M imports).
• Relationship Status: Indonesia maintains a net exporter role, though trade flows show muted YoY momentum. The surplus suggests continued reliance on Malaysian demand for Indonesian goods.

Indonesia Import Trend from Malaysia 2025 Q3 (Source: yTrade)**

Indonesia Export Trend to Malaysia 2025 Q3 (Source: yTrade)**

Get Historical Indonesia Malaysia Trade Records

Indonesia-Malaysia Top Trading Products in Q3 2025

Indonesia Export Profile: What Does Indonesia Sell to Malaysia

• Top Commodity: Rank #1 export is HS Code 27 (Mineral fuels, oils, distillation products) at 24.34% of total exports.
• Demand Driver: Malaysia uses these for industrial processing, likely refining or energy generation.
• Concentration: No single category dominates (>50% share), but mineral fuels (24.34%) and animal/vegetable fats (12.22%) form a significant combined share.

Indonesia Import Profile: What Does Indonesia Buy from Malaysia

• Top Commodity: Rank #1 import is HS Code 27 (Mineral fuels, oils, distillation products) at 43.58% of total imports.
• Dependency Nature: Energy security dependency, with nearly half of imports being fuel-related.

Indonesia - Malaysia Trade Relationship Dynamics

• The Exchange Model: Resource-for-Resource Complementarity. Both countries trade heavily in mineral fuels (HS 27), suggesting cross-border energy flows rather than a tech or manufacturing exchange.
• Value Chain Position: Neither side clearly holds a higher value-add position; trade is dominated by raw or semi-processed commodities (fuels, fats, metals).

Import Analysis by Product: Malaysia to Indonesia (Source: yTrade)

Export Analysis by Product: Indonesia to Malaysia (Source: yTrade)

Check Detailed Indonesia-Malaysia Trade HS Code Breakdown

Future Outlook & Strategic Recommendations

Forecast

The Indonesia-Malaysia trade relationship is likely to remain stable but subdued in the near term, with muted growth expected in Q4 2025. The stagnation in YoY trade volumes and recent MoM volatility suggest a period of consolidation, particularly in the energy sector (HS Code 27), which dominates bilateral flows. However, Malaysia’s slight MoM import recovery (2.51%) could signal tentative demand resilience, offering cautious optimism for Indonesian exporters. Without structural shifts, the trade surplus will persist but may narrow if Malaysia diversifies its energy sourcing.

Strategic Moves

• Lock in Energy Contracts: Indonesian fuel exporters should secure long-term agreements with Malaysian buyers to stabilize revenue streams amid fluctuating demand.
• Diversify Export Mix: Reduce reliance on mineral fuels by promoting higher-value processed goods (e.g., refined palm oil under HS 15) to capture more margin in Malaysia’s market.
• Monitor Logistics Costs: With commodity-driven trade, optimize shipping routes and storage to offset MoM export declines (-3.65%) and protect profitability.

Frequently Asked Questions

How did Indonesia - Malaysia trade perform in 2025 Q3?

Indonesia's exports to Malaysia totaled $1.04B in July 2025, with 0.0% YoY growth and a 3.65% MoM decline. Imports from Malaysia rose slightly by 2.51% MoM to $874.09M, also showing flat YoY growth.

What are the top exports from Indonesia to Malaysia?

Mineral fuels, oils, and distillation products (HS Code 27) accounted for 24.34% of exports, followed by animal/vegetable fats (12.22%). No single category dominated, but these two formed a significant share.

What does Indonesia import from Malaysia?

Mineral fuels, oils, and distillation products (HS Code 27) were the top import, making up 43.58% of total imports, reflecting Indonesia's energy security dependency on Malaysia.

What is the trade balance between Indonesia and Malaysia?

Indonesia maintained a trade surplus of $165.91M ($1.04B exports - $874.09M imports). The surplus suggests continued reliance on Malaysian demand for Indonesian goods, though trade momentum remained muted.