Indonesia - Malaysia Trade 2025 Q2: Energy Trade Dominates

Key Market Takeaways: Indonesia - Malaysia Trade

The bilateral trade relationship between Indonesia and Malaysia shows growth with volatility in Q2 2025, with Indonesia maintaining a clear net exporter position.

• Economic Pulse: Indonesia posted a $1.02B trade surplus ($3.37B exports vs. $2.35B imports), though June saw export stagnation and import spikes.
• Exchange Structure: Intra-industry trade dominates, with HS 27 (Mineral fuels, oils) leading both sides (31% of Indonesia’s exports, 43% of imports), reflecting energy supply chain integration.
• Strategic Interdependence: The bilateral trade data reveals tight energy sector linkages, with Malaysia holding slight diversification advantages in non-fuel exports.

This bilateral trade snapshot is based on verified customs data from the yTrade database.

Indonesia-Malaysia Trade Trend in Q2 2025

Indonesia Export Performance: Shipments to Malaysia

• Total Volume: $3.37B in Q2 2025.
• Growth Trend & Context:
  • YoY growth was mixed, with April (+19.02%) and May (+11.15%) showing strong gains, but June flatlined at 0.0%.
  • No significant trade news to explain the June stagnation.
• Key Volatility: June saw a -6.76% MoM drop, the sharpest decline in the quarter.

Indonesia Import Performance: Sourcing from Malaysia

• Total Volume: $2.35B in Q2 2025.
• Growth Trend & Context:
  • YoY growth was inconsistent: April (+13.53%) surged, but May (-5.52%) and June (0.0%) underperformed.
• Key Volatility: June posted the highest monthly value ($852.69M) with a +10.39% MoM spike.

Indonesia - Malaysia Trade Balance & Market Dynamics

• Net Position: Trade surplus of $1.02B (Exports $3.37B > Imports $2.35B).
• Relationship Status: Indonesia maintains a clear net exporter role, though import volatility suggests fluctuating demand for Malaysian goods.

Indonesia Import Trend from Malaysia 2025 Q2 (Source: yTrade)**

Indonesia Export Trend to Malaysia 2025 Q2 (Source: yTrade)**

Get Historical Indonesia Malaysia Trade Records

Indonesia-Malaysia Top Trading Products in Q2 2025

Indonesia Export Profile: What Does Indonesia Sell to Malaysia

• Top Commodity: Rank #1 export is HS 27 (Mineral fuels, oils) at 31.07% of total exports.
• Demand Driver: Malaysia uses these for industrial processing, likely refining or energy generation.
• Concentration: No single category dominates (>50% share), but HS 27 holds a significant plurality.

Indonesia Import Profile: What Does Indonesia Buy from Malaysia

• Top Commodity: Rank #1 import is HS 27 (Mineral fuels, oils) at 43.23% of total imports.
• Dependency Nature: Energy security dependency, suggesting cross-border fuel trade for refining or distribution.

Indonesia - Malaysia Trade Relationship Dynamics

• The Exchange Model: Intra-Industry Trade in energy products (HS 27 dominates both sides), indicating bilateral fuel swaps or supply chain integration in the oil sector.
• Value Chain Position: Both countries trade similar commodities, with Malaysia holding a slight edge in export diversification (e.g., HS 15, 74). Indonesia’s exports are more concentrated in raw materials.

Import Analysis by Product: Malaysia to Indonesia (Source: yTrade)

Export Analysis by Product: Indonesia to Malaysia (Source: yTrade)

Check Detailed Indonesia-Malaysia Trade HS Code Breakdown

Future Outlook & Strategic Recommendations

Forecast

Indonesia’s trade with Malaysia in Q3 2025 is expected to stabilize with moderate growth, driven by sustained demand for energy products (HS 27). The June stagnation in exports suggests a temporary lull rather than a structural decline, given Malaysia’s reliance on Indonesian mineral fuels for industrial processing. However, import volatility signals fluctuating Malaysian supply chains, requiring closer monitoring. The trade surplus will likely persist, but exporters should prepare for potential price swings in the energy sector.

Strategic Moves

• Secure Long-term Contracts: Indonesian energy exporters should lock in agreements with Malaysian refiners to mitigate price volatility and ensure steady revenue streams.
• Optimize Cross-border Logistics: Traders dealing in HS 27 must streamline shipping and storage to capitalize on Malaysia’s sporadic import spikes, reducing inefficiencies.
• Diversify Export Mix: Indonesia should reduce reliance on HS 27 by promoting secondary export categories (e.g., HS 15, 74) to Malaysia, leveraging existing trade channels for broader market penetration.

Frequently Asked Questions

How did Indonesia - Malaysia trade perform in 2025 Q2?

Indonesia exported $3.37B and imported $2.35B, with mixed YoY growth in exports and inconsistent import performance, particularly a sharp MoM drop in June.

What are the top exports from Indonesia to Malaysia?

The top export is HS 27 (Mineral fuels, oils), accounting for 31.07% of total exports, primarily used for industrial processing in Malaysia.

What does Indonesia import from Malaysia?

The top import is also HS 27 (Mineral fuels, oils), making up 43.23% of total imports, reflecting energy security dependency between the two countries.

What is the trade balance between Indonesia and Malaysia?

Indonesia recorded a trade surplus of $1.02B in Q2 2025, maintaining its net exporter role despite import volatility.