Indonesia - Japan Trade 2025 Q2: Mixed Growth Trends

Key Market Takeaways: Indonesia - Japan Trade

The bilateral trade relationship between Indonesia and Japan shows mixed growth with underlying volatility in 2025 Q2.

• Economic Pulse: Indonesia maintains a $220M trade surplus ($4.07B exports vs. $3.85B imports), though both flows saw erratic YoY swings—sharp export declines in April-May countered by June stability.
• Exchange Structure: Indonesia - Japan trade statistics reveal a resource-for-tech dynamic: Indonesia supplies mineral fuels (24% of exports) while importing high-tech machinery (20% of imports), reflecting moderate export concentration.
• Strategic Interdependence: The partnership hinges on complementary needs—Japan secures energy/raw materials, while Indonesia relies on Japanese capital goods for industrial development.

This bilateral trade snapshot is based on verified customs data from the yTrade database.

Indonesia-Japan Trade Trend in Q2 2025

Indonesia Export Performance: Shipments to Japan

• Total Volume: $4.07B in Q2 2025.
• Growth Trend & Context:
  • Mixed YoY performance: April (-16.09%) and May (-32.34%) saw sharp declines, while June stabilized (0% YoY).
  • No significant policy or external events to explain the volatility.
• Key Volatility: June recorded the highest MoM growth (+5.79%), reversing May’s modest gain (+2.63%).

Indonesia Import Performance: Sourcing from Japan

• Total Volume: $3.85B in Q2 2025.
• Growth Trend & Context:
  • Strong YoY growth in April (+35.55%) and May (+22.01%), but June flatlined (0% YoY).
  • No news to contextualize the fluctuations.
• Key Volatility: April posted the highest MoM surge (+14.99%), followed by consecutive declines in May (-9.89%) and June (-8.36%).

Indonesia - Japan Trade Balance & Market Dynamics

• Net Position: Trade surplus of $220M (Exports: $4.07B > Imports: $3.85B).
• Relationship Status: Indonesia maintains a net exporter role, though import reliance on Japanese goods remains significant.

Indonesia Import Trend from Japan 2025 Q2 (Source: yTrade)**

Indonesia Export Trend to Japan 2025 Q2 (Source: yTrade)**

Get Historical Indonesia Japan Trade Records

Indonesia-Japan Top Trading Products in Q2 2025

Indonesia Export Profile: What Does Indonesia Sell to Japan

• Top Commodity: Rank #1 export is HS Code 27 (Mineral Fuels, Oils) at 23.97% of total exports to Japan.
• Demand Driver: Japan imports these for energy security and industrial processing, reflecting its reliance on external energy sources.
• Concentration: The top 3 exports (HS Codes 27, 85, 26) account for 41.54% of total exports, indicating moderate concentration.

Indonesia Import Profile: What Does Indonesia Buy from Japan

• Top Commodity: Rank #1 import is HS Code 84 (Nuclear Reactors, Machinery) at 20.18% of total imports from Japan.
• Dependency Nature: Imports are dominated by high-tech machinery and capital goods, highlighting critical technology dependency for Indonesia's industrial base.

Indonesia - Japan Trade Relationship Dynamics

• The Exchange Model: Resource-for-Tech Complementarity—Indonesia exports raw materials (mineral fuels, ores) while importing advanced machinery and industrial goods from Japan.
• Value Chain Position: Japan holds the higher value-add position, supplying complex machinery (HS 84, 85) versus Indonesia’s commodity-driven exports (HS 27, 26).

Import Analysis by Product: Japan to Indonesia (Source: yTrade)

Export Analysis by Product: Indonesia to Japan (Source: yTrade)

Check Detailed Indonesia-Japan Trade HS Code Breakdown

Future Outlook & Strategic Recommendations

Forecast

Indonesia’s trade surplus with Japan is expected to stabilize in Q3 2025, driven by steady demand for mineral fuels (HS 27) and a rebound in machinery imports (HS 84). However, volatility in monthly trade flows—particularly the sharp YoY declines in April-May exports—suggests exporters should prepare for potential demand fluctuations. The resource-for-tech complementarity will remain the core dynamic, but Indonesia must push for higher-value exports to reduce reliance on commodity price swings.

Strategic Moves

• Secure Long-term Fuel Contracts: Indonesian energy exporters should lock in multi-year agreements with Japanese buyers to mitigate pricing volatility and ensure stable revenue streams.
• Diversify Export Mix: Indonesia must accelerate value-added processing of raw materials (e.g., refined nickel for EV batteries) to capture more of the supply chain and reduce dependency on unprocessed commodity exports.
• Monitor Machinery Demand Cycles: Importers of Japanese capital goods (HS 84) should align purchases with Indonesia’s industrial expansion phases, avoiding overstocking during potential downturns.

Frequently Asked Questions

How did Indonesia - Japan trade perform in 2025 Q2?

Indonesia exported $4.07B and imported $3.85B from Japan, with mixed YoY growth: exports saw declines in April-May but stabilized in June, while imports surged in April-May before flatlining in June.

What are the top exports from Indonesia to Japan?

Mineral Fuels, Oils (HS Code 27) lead Indonesia’s exports to Japan, followed by Electrical Machinery (HS Code 85) and Ores (HS Code 26), accounting for 41.54% of total exports.

What does Indonesia import from Japan?

Nuclear Reactors, Machinery (HS Code 84) is Indonesia’s top import from Japan, reflecting a dependency on high-tech capital goods for industrial development.

What is the trade balance between Indonesia and Japan?

Indonesia maintained a trade surplus of $220M in Q2 2025, driven by higher exports of raw materials compared to imports of advanced machinery from Japan.