Indonesia - Japan Trade 2025 Q3: Balanced Growth Surplus
Key Market Takeaways: Indonesia - Japan Trade
The bilateral trade relationship between Indonesia and Japan remains stable with balanced growth in Q3 2025.
- $1.62B exports vs. $1.30B imports yield a $320M surplus for Indonesia, reflecting steady demand and supply chain resilience.
- Resource-for-Tech Complementarity: Indonesia - Japan trade statistics show mineral fuels (30% of exports) exchanged for high-tech machinery (23% of imports), reinforcing a raw-materials-for-manufactured-goods dynamic.
- Strategic Fit: Japan’s advanced industrial inputs support Indonesia’s manufacturing sector, while Indonesia feeds Japan’s energy needs—a classic symbiotic pairing.
This bilateral trade snapshot is based on verified customs data from the yTrade database.
Indonesia-Japan Trade Trend in Q3 2025
Indonesia Export Performance: Shipments to Japan
- Total Volume: $1.62B in Q3 2025.
- Growth Trend & Context: YoY growth flat (0.0%), indicating stable demand. No significant policy shifts or disruptions noted.
- Key Volatility: July saw a 14.28% MoM surge, suggesting short-term demand spikes or inventory restocking.
Indonesia Import Performance: Sourcing from Japan
- Total Volume: $1.30B in Q3 2025.
- Growth Trend & Context: YoY growth flat (0.0%), reflecting steady supply chains. No news-driven disruptions.
- Key Volatility: July imports rose 11.49% MoM, potentially linked to pre-seasonal procurement.
Indonesia - Japan Trade Balance & Market Dynamics
- Net Position: $320M surplus for Indonesia (Exports: $1.62B > Imports: $1.30B).
- Relationship Status: Indonesia maintains a net exporter role, with balanced but slightly favorable trade dynamics.
Indonesia Import Trend from Japan 2025 Q3 (Source: yTrade)**
| Month | Value | MoM | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jul | 1.30B | 11.49% | 0.0% |
| Total | 1.30B | - | - |
Indonesia Export Trend to Japan 2025 Q3 (Source: yTrade)**
| Month | Value | MoM | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jul | 1.62B | 14.28% | 0.0% |
| Total | 1.62B | - | - |
Get Historical Indonesia Japan Trade Records
Indonesia-Japan Top Trading Products in Q3 2025
Indonesia Export Profile: What Does Indonesia Sell to Japan
- Top Commodity: Rank #1 export is HS 27 (Mineral Fuels, Oils) at 30.13% of total exports to Japan.
- Demand Driver: Japan uses these for industrial processing and energy needs.
- Concentration: The trade is moderately concentrated, with the top commodity holding a 30% share.
Indonesia Import Profile: What Does Indonesia Buy from Japan
- Top Commodity: Rank #1 import is HS 84 (Nuclear Reactors, Machinery) at 22.87% of total imports from Japan.
- Dependency Nature: Critical technology dependency, as these imports likely support Indonesia's industrial and manufacturing sectors.
Indonesia - Japan Trade Relationship Dynamics
- The Exchange Model: Resource-for-Tech Complementarity. Indonesia exports raw materials (mineral fuels) to Japan, while importing high-tech machinery and equipment.
- Value Chain Position: Japan holds the higher value-add position, supplying advanced machinery, while Indonesia provides energy resources.
Import Analysis by Product: Japan to Indonesia (Source: yTrade)
| HS Code | Value | Percent |
|---|---|---|
| 84 | 296.88M | 22.87% |
| 87 | 213.27M | 16.43% |
| 72 | 141.98M | 10.93% |
| 85 | 139.85M | 10.77% |
| 40 | 70.22M | 5.41% |
| 39 | 49.84M | 3.84% |
| 74 | 44.88M | 3.46% |
| 98 | 39.77M | 3.06% |
| 73 | 39.11M | 3.01% |
| 90 | 34.39M | 2.65% |
Export Analysis by Product: Indonesia to Japan (Source: yTrade)
| HS Code | Value | Percent |
|---|---|---|
| 27 | 488.53M | 30.13% |
| 85 | 142.12M | 8.77% |
| 75 | 114.37M | 7.05% |
| 87 | 87.79M | 5.42% |
| 84 | 82.31M | 5.08% |
| 44 | 69.52M | 4.29% |
| 26 | 64.96M | 4.01% |
| 40 | 57.84M | 3.57% |
| 14 | 47.19M | 2.91% |
| 39 | 44.73M | 2.76% |
Check Detailed Indonesia-Japan Trade HS Code Breakdown
Future Outlook & Strategic Recommendations
Forecast
The Indonesia-Japan trade relationship is expected to maintain its stable trajectory into Q4 2025, with modest growth potential driven by Japan’s steady demand for Indonesian mineral fuels (HS 27) and Indonesia’s reliance on Japanese machinery (HS 84). The flat YoY growth in Q3 suggests equilibrium, but the July MoM spikes hint at underlying volatility—likely tied to seasonal procurement cycles. Given Japan’s energy dependency and Indonesia’s industrial modernization needs, the resource-for-tech complementarity will continue to define bilateral trade. However, exporters should prepare for potential price fluctuations in energy markets, which could impact margins.
Strategic Moves
- Lock in Long-Term Fuel Contracts: Indonesian energy exporters should secure multi-year agreements with Japanese buyers to stabilize revenue streams amid volatile global oil prices.
- Diversify Tech Imports: Indonesian manufacturers must reduce overreliance on Japanese machinery by exploring alternative suppliers (e.g., South Korea or Germany) to mitigate supply chain risks.
- Capitalize on Niche Exports: Beyond mineral fuels, Indonesian traders should push higher-value downstream products (e.g., processed nickel for EV batteries) to Japan, leveraging the latter’s green energy transition.
Frequently Asked Questions
How did Indonesia - Japan trade perform in 2025 Q3?
Indonesia's exports to Japan totaled $1.62B, while imports were $1.30B in Q3 2025. Both showed flat YoY growth (0.0%), indicating stable trade dynamics.
What are the top exports from Indonesia to Japan?
HS 27 (Mineral Fuels, Oils) dominated Indonesia’s exports to Japan, accounting for 30.13% of total shipments, driven by Japan’s industrial and energy needs.
What does Indonesia import from Japan?
HS 84 (Nuclear Reactors, Machinery) was Indonesia’s top import from Japan, representing 22.87% of total imports, reflecting reliance on Japanese technology for industrial sectors.
What is the trade balance between Indonesia and Japan?
Indonesia maintained a $320M trade surplus with Japan in Q3 2025, sustaining its net exporter role with balanced but favorable trade dynamics.
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