Indonesia - Japan Trade 2025 Q1: Surplus Amid Export Slump
Key Market Takeaways: Indonesia - Japan Trade
The bilateral trade relationship between Indonesia and Japan shows a weakening export trend but sustained import demand in Q1 2025.
- Economic Pulse: Indonesia maintains a $0.33B trade surplus ($4.06B exports vs. $3.73B imports), though exports to Japan fell sharply YoY (-18% to -25%).
- Exchange Structure: Indonesia - Japan trade statistics reveal a resource-for-tech dynamic—Indonesia supplies mineral fuels (29% of exports) while importing machinery (21% of imports).
- Strategic Interdependence: The partnership remains asymmetrically complementary, with Japan holding the high-value position in technology and Indonesia providing critical raw materials.
This bilateral trade snapshot is based on verified customs data from the yTrade database.
Indonesia-Japan Trade Trend in Q1 2025
Indonesia Export Performance: Shipments to Japan
- Total Volume: $4.06B in Q1 2025.
- Growth Trend & Context: YoY decline persisted across all months (-18.16% in Jan, -21.32% in Feb, -25.3% in Mar), signaling weakening demand or competitive shifts. No news to contextualize the drop.
- Key Volatility: Minimal MoM fluctuations (-0.09% in Feb, +0.11% in Mar), indicating stable but depressed export levels.
Indonesia Import Performance: Sourcing from Japan
- Total Volume: $3.73B in Q1 2025.
- Growth Trend & Context: Mixed YoY growth (+14.72% in Jan, +8.03% in Feb, +12.6% in Mar), suggesting sustained demand for Japanese goods. No news to explain the trend.
- Key Volatility: February saw the highest value ($1.26B), while March had the sharpest MoM drop (-2.75%).
Indonesia - Japan Trade Balance & Market Dynamics
- Net Position: Trade surplus of $0.33B (Exports $4.06B > Imports $3.73B).
- Relationship Status: Indonesia maintains a net exporter role, but declining exports YoY warrant monitoring for structural shifts.
Indonesia Import Trend from Japan 2025 Q1 (Source: yTrade)**
| Month | Value | MoM | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jan | 1.24B | 0.0% | 14.72% |
| Feb | 1.26B | 1.58% | 8.03% |
| Mar | 1.23B | -2.75% | 12.6% |
| Total | 3.73B | - | - |
Indonesia Export Trend to Japan 2025 Q1 (Source: yTrade)**
| Month | Value | MoM | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jan | 1.35B | 0.0% | -18.16% |
| Feb | 1.35B | -0.09% | -21.32% |
| Mar | 1.35B | 0.11% | -25.3% |
| Total | 4.06B | - | - |
Get Historical Indonesia Japan Trade Records
Indonesia-Japan Top Trading Products in Q1 2025
Indonesia Export Profile: What Does Indonesia Sell to Japan
- Top Commodity: Rank #1 export is HS 27 (Mineral fuels, oils) at 29.27% of total exports to Japan.
- Demand Driver: Japan uses these for energy supply and industrial processing, reflecting its reliance on imported fuels.
- Concentration: The trade is moderately concentrated, with the top category (HS 27) accounting for nearly 30% of exports.
Indonesia Import Profile: What Does Indonesia Buy from Japan
- Top Commodity: Rank #1 import is HS 84 (Nuclear reactors, machinery) at 21.05% of total imports from Japan.
- Dependency Nature: Imports are critical technology dependency, dominated by machinery and vehicles (HS 84, 87), essential for Indonesia’s industrial and infrastructure development.
Indonesia - Japan Trade Relationship Dynamics
- The Exchange Model: Resource-for-Tech Complementarity. Indonesia exports raw materials (mineral fuels) and imports high-tech machinery, showing a classic asymmetric trade pattern.
- Value Chain Position: Japan holds the higher value-add position, supplying advanced machinery (HS 84, 85) while Indonesia provides commodities (HS 27, 40).
Import Analysis by Product: Japan to Indonesia (Source: yTrade)
| HS Code | Value | Percent |
|---|---|---|
| 84 | 785.14M | 21.05% |
| 87 | 601.12M | 16.12% |
| 72 | 481.59M | 12.91% |
| 85 | 346.23M | 9.28% |
| 71 | 137.36M | 3.68% |
| 39 | 134.93M | 3.62% |
| 74 | 133.32M | 3.57% |
| 40 | 116.74M | 3.13% |
| 98 | 113.78M | 3.05% |
| 73 | 112.82M | 3.03% |
Export Analysis by Product: Indonesia to Japan (Source: yTrade)
| HS Code | Value | Percent |
|---|---|---|
| 27 | 1.19B | 29.27% |
| 85 | 408.48M | 10.07% |
| 75 | 253.32M | 6.24% |
| 40 | 221.81M | 5.47% |
| 84 | 198.87M | 4.90% |
| 44 | 182.77M | 4.50% |
| 14 | 142.79M | 3.52% |
| 39 | 132.96M | 3.28% |
| 87 | 130.44M | 3.21% |
| 64 | 113.58M | 2.80% |
Check Detailed Indonesia-Japan Trade HS Code Breakdown
Future Outlook & Strategic Recommendations
Forecast
Indonesia’s trade surplus with Japan is expected to narrow in Q2 2025 as declining exports of mineral fuels (HS 27) face sustained pressure from weakening Japanese demand or potential substitution. However, imports of Japanese machinery (HS 84) will likely remain robust, driven by Indonesia’s infrastructure and industrial expansion. Without intervention, the current resource-for-tech complementarity may tilt further in Japan’s favor, eroding Indonesia’s trade balance. Traders should prepare for continued volatility in energy exports while capitalizing on stable machinery imports.
Strategic Moves
- Diversify Export Markets for Commodities: Indonesian exporters must reduce reliance on Japan for HS 27 (mineral fuels) by targeting emerging Asian markets to mitigate demand shocks.
- Lock in Long-Term Tech Supply Contracts: Importers should secure fixed-price agreements for critical machinery (HS 84, 85) to hedge against potential yen appreciation or supply chain disruptions.
- Invest in Upgrading Export Composition: The Indonesian government and private sector must prioritize value-added processing of raw materials (e.g., refining fuels, manufacturing rubber products) to shift away from low-margin commodity dependence.
Frequently Asked Questions
How did Indonesia - Japan trade perform in 2025 Q1?
Indonesia recorded a trade surplus of $0.33B, with exports totaling $4.06B (YoY decline) and imports at $3.73B (mixed YoY growth).
What are the top exports from Indonesia to Japan?
Mineral fuels and oils (HS 27) dominate, accounting for 29.27% of Indonesia’s exports to Japan.
What does Indonesia import from Japan?
Machinery and nuclear reactors (HS 84) lead imports, representing 21.05% of total imports from Japan.
What is the trade balance between Indonesia and Japan?
Indonesia maintains a trade surplus ($0.33B), though declining exports YoY suggest potential shifts in the trade dynamic.
Indonesia - Japan Trade 2024 Q2: $1.46B Surplus
Indonesia's trade surplus with Japan hits $1.46B in Q2 2024, fueled by resource-for-tech exchange. Explore Indonesia Japan trade trends and top trading products via yTrade data.
Indonesia - Japan Trade 2025 Q2: Mixed Growth Trends
Indonesia's trade with Japan shows a $220M surplus in 2025 Q2, driven by mineral fuels and machinery. Explore Indonesia Japan trade trends and top trading products via yTrade data.
