Indonesia - India Trade 2024 Q2: Surplus & Energy Focus
Key Market Takeaways: Indonesia - India Trade
The bilateral trade relationship between Indonesia and India is marked by Indonesia's growing trade surplus and robust export demand in Q2 2024.
- Economic Pulse: Indonesia holds a $2.89B trade surplus with India, driven by $3.76B in exports (+17.54% YoY growth) against $874.37M in imports (-23.6% YoY decline).
- Exchange Structure: Indonesia - India trade statistics reveal a resource-for-resource exchange, with HS 27 (Mineral Fuels, Oils) dominating both exports (37.14%) and imports (14.44%), highlighting mutual energy sector reliance.
- Strategic Interdependence: The relationship remains commodity-driven, with limited value-add, signaling bilateral dependence on raw materials rather than deeper supply chain integration.
This bilateral trade snapshot is based on verified customs data from the yTrade database.
Indonesia-India Trade Trend in Q2 2024
Indonesia Export Performance: Shipments to India
- Total Volume: $3.76B in Q2 2024.
- Growth Trend & Context:
- YoY growth surged (+17.54% in April, +27.64% in May), indicating robust demand for Indonesian exports in India.
- No specific trade news or policy changes were reported to explain this trend.
- Key Volatility: May saw a sharp MoM jump (+7.23%), the highest in the quarter.
Indonesia Import Performance: Sourcing from India
- Total Volume: $874.37M in Q2 2024.
- Growth Trend & Context:
- YoY imports collapsed (-23.6% in April, -46.9% in May), signaling reduced Indonesian demand for Indian goods.
- Key Volatility: May recorded the steepest YoY decline (-46.9%), with imports remaining subdued.
Indonesia - India Trade Balance & Market Dynamics
- Net Position: Indonesia holds a trade surplus of $2.89B ($3.76B exports - $874.37M imports).
- Relationship Status: Strong net exporter role, with exports to India far outpacing imports. The widening surplus suggests deepening trade asymmetry.
Indonesia Import Trend from India 2024 Q2 (Source: yTrade)**
| Month | Value | MoM | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|
| Apr | 432.76M | -2.96% | -23.6% |
| May | 441.61M | 2.05% | -46.9% |
| Total | 874.37M | - | - |
Indonesia Export Trend to India 2024 Q2 (Source: yTrade)**
| Month | Value | MoM | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|
| Apr | 1.82B | 1.82% | 17.54% |
| May | 1.95B | 7.23% | 27.64% |
| Total | 3.76B | - | - |
Get Historical Indonesia India Trade Records
Indonesia-India Top Trading Products in Q2 2024
Indonesia Export Profile: What Does Indonesia Sell to India
- Top Commodity: Rank #1 export is HS 27 (Mineral Fuels, Oils) at 37.14% of total exports to India.
- Demand Driver: India uses these for industrial processing and energy needs, reflecting its reliance on imported energy resources.
- Concentration: Trade is highly concentrated, with HS 27 alone accounting for over a third of exports.
Indonesia Import Profile: What Does Indonesia Buy from India
- Top Commodity: Rank #1 import is HS 27 (Mineral Fuels, Oils) at 14.44% of total imports from India.
- Dependency Nature: Energy security dependency, though less pronounced than Indonesia's exports in the same category.
Indonesia - India Trade Relationship Dynamics
- The Exchange Model: Resource-for-Resource Trade, with both sides heavily exchanging mineral fuels and oils (HS 27). This suggests mutual energy sector interdependence rather than complementary exchange.
- Value Chain Position: Neither side clearly dominates in value-add; trade is skewed toward raw materials, indicating a bilateral reliance on primary commodities.
Import Analysis by Product: India to Indonesia (Source: yTrade)
| HS Code | Value | Percent |
|---|---|---|
| 27 | 126.22M | 14.44% |
| 87 | 97.00M | 11.09% |
| 84 | 95.63M | 10.94% |
| 12 | 60.61M | 6.93% |
| 29 | 53.68M | 6.14% |
| 72 | 46.15M | 5.28% |
| 85 | 33.02M | 3.78% |
| 10 | 29.79M | 3.41% |
| 32 | 23.32M | 2.67% |
| 11 | 21.19M | 2.42% |
Export Analysis by Product: Indonesia to India (Source: yTrade)
| HS Code | Value | Percent |
|---|---|---|
| 27 | 1.40B | 37.14% |
| 71 | 494.72M | 13.15% |
| 15 | 409.79M | 10.89% |
| 72 | 319.27M | 8.49% |
| 26 | 316.20M | 8.40% |
| 28 | 113.22M | 3.01% |
| 38 | 72.39M | 1.92% |
| 80 | 66.01M | 1.75% |
| 29 | 63.69M | 1.69% |
| 18 | 45.31M | 1.20% |
Check Detailed Indonesia-India Trade HS Code Breakdown
Future Outlook & Strategic Recommendations
Forecast
Indonesia’s trade surplus with India is expected to widen further in Q3 2024, driven by sustained demand for Indonesian mineral fuels (HS 27) amid India’s growing energy needs. The sharp YoY export growth (+17.54% in April, +27.64% in May) signals resilience, while India’s declining imports (-46.9% YoY in May) suggest a prolonged asymmetry. With both economies reliant on raw material exchanges, volatility in commodity prices could amplify trade swings, but Indonesia’s position as a net exporter remains secure.
Strategic Moves
- Lock in Energy Contracts: Indonesian exporters should secure long-term agreements for HS 27 shipments to India, capitalizing on current demand spikes and insulating against future price fluctuations.
- Diversify Export Mix: Reduce reliance on mineral fuels by promoting secondary export categories (e.g., palm oil, machinery) to mitigate concentration risk and align with India’s broader industrial demand.
- Monitor Indian Policy Shifts: Anticipate potential Indian import restrictions or energy sector reforms by strengthening market intelligence networks to preempt disruptions.
Frequently Asked Questions
How did Indonesia - India trade perform in 2024 Q2?
Indonesia's exports to India surged (+17.54% YoY in April, +27.64% in May), totaling $3.76B, while imports from India collapsed (-23.6% YoY in April, -46.9% in May), reaching $874.37M.
What are the top exports from Indonesia to India?
HS 27 (Mineral Fuels, Oils) dominated Indonesia's exports to India, accounting for 37.14% of total shipments, reflecting India's reliance on imported energy resources.
What does Indonesia import from India?
HS 27 (Mineral Fuels, Oils) was also the top import from India, though less significant at 14.44% of total imports, indicating a mutual energy sector interdependence.
What is the trade balance between Indonesia and India?
Indonesia holds a trade surplus of $2.89B with India, as exports far outpaced imports. The widening surplus suggests deepening trade asymmetry.
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