Indonesia - India Trade 2024 Q1: $3.71B Surplus
Key Market Takeaways: Indonesia - India Trade
The bilateral trade relationship between Indonesia and India remains robust, with Indonesia maintaining a strong net exporter position in Q1 2024.
- Economic Pulse: Indonesia holds a $3.71B trade surplus with India, exporting $5.10B (up with mixed YoY growth) while imports fell to $1.39B (sharp YoY declines).
- Exchange Structure: Indonesia - India trade statistics reveal a resource-for-resource complementarity, with mineral fuels (HS 27) dominating both flows. Indonesia’s exports are more concentrated in raw materials, while India ships higher-value processed goods.
- Strategic Interdependence: The partnership is anchored in mutual energy and industrial material needs, though Indonesia’s export resilience contrasts with India’s weakening import demand.
This bilateral trade snapshot is based on verified customs data from the yTrade database.
Indonesia-India Trade Trend in Q1 2024
Indonesia Export Performance: Shipments to India
- Total Volume: $5.10B in Q1 2024.
- Growth Trend & Context:
- YoY growth was mixed: +31.85% in January, -5.33% in February, and +4.85% in March.
- No specific trade news or policy changes were reported to explain these fluctuations.
- Key Volatility: February saw a -14.49% MoM drop, while March rebounded with +16.78% growth.
Indonesia Import Performance: Sourcing from India
- Total Volume: $1.39B in Q1 2024.
- Growth Trend & Context:
- YoY declines persisted: -23.18% in January, -33.81% in February, and -44.24% in March.
- Key Volatility: January had the highest MoM increase (+21.14%), while February fell -15.18%.
Indonesia - India Trade Balance & Market Dynamics
- Net Position: Indonesia holds a trade surplus of $3.71B (Exports $5.10B - Imports $1.39B).
- Relationship Status: Strong net exporter role, with exports nearly 3.7x imports. Demand for Indonesian goods in India remains robust despite import contraction.
Indonesia Import Trend from India 2024 Q1 (Source: yTrade)**
| Month | Value | MoM | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jan | 508.36M | 21.14% | -23.18% |
| Feb | 431.20M | -15.18% | -33.81% |
| Mar | 445.94M | 3.42% | -44.24% |
| Total | 1.39B | - | - |
Indonesia Export Trend to India 2024 Q1 (Source: yTrade)**
| Month | Value | MoM | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jan | 1.79B | -2.73% | 31.85% |
| Feb | 1.53B | -14.49% | -5.33% |
| Mar | 1.78B | 16.78% | 4.85% |
| Total | 5.10B | - | - |
Get Historical Indonesia India Trade Records
Indonesia-India Top Trading Products in Q1 2024
Indonesia Export Profile: What Does Indonesia Sell to India
- Top Commodity: HS Code 27 (Mineral fuels, oils) dominates with $1.98B (38.95% share).
- Demand Driver: India imports these for energy security and industrial processing.
- Concentration: High—top 3 exports (HS 27, 15, 72) account for 65.51% of total exports.
Indonesia Import Profile: What Does Indonesia Buy from India
- Top Commodity: HS Code 27 (Mineral fuels, oils) leads at $257.76M (18.60% share).
- Dependency Nature: Energy security, though less concentrated than exports.
Indonesia - India Trade Relationship Dynamics
- The Exchange Model: Resource-for-Resource Complementarity. Both sides trade heavily in mineral fuels (HS 27) and ores (HS 26, 72), indicating mutual reliance on raw materials.
- Value Chain Position: India holds a slight edge in value-add, exporting higher-value processed oils (HS 15) and gems (HS 71) alongside raw materials. Indonesia’s exports are more concentrated in unprocessed fuels.
Import Analysis by Product: India to Indonesia (Source: yTrade)
| HS Code | Value | Percent |
|---|---|---|
| 27 | 257.76M | 18.60% |
| 84 | 154.26M | 11.13% |
| 87 | 125.30M | 9.04% |
| 12 | 104.17M | 7.52% |
| 72 | 90.12M | 6.50% |
| 29 | 83.66M | 6.04% |
| 26 | 49.46M | 3.57% |
| 28 | 45.65M | 3.29% |
| 85 | 44.19M | 3.19% |
| 39 | 30.55M | 2.20% |
Export Analysis by Product: Indonesia to India (Source: yTrade)
| HS Code | Value | Percent |
|---|---|---|
| 27 | 1.98B | 38.95% |
| 15 | 960.11M | 18.84% |
| 72 | 393.16M | 7.72% |
| 26 | 300.04M | 5.89% |
| 71 | 266.92M | 5.24% |
| 28 | 140.61M | 2.76% |
| 38 | 112.40M | 2.21% |
| 84 | 95.17M | 1.87% |
| 29 | 87.09M | 1.71% |
| 18 | 76.01M | 1.49% |
Check Detailed Indonesia-India Trade HS Code Breakdown
Future Outlook & Strategic Recommendations
Forecast
Indonesia’s trade surplus with India is expected to widen further in Q2 2024, driven by sustained demand for mineral fuels (HS 27) and industrial raw materials. While exports may stabilize with moderate growth, imports from India could continue declining unless new trade incentives are introduced. The volatility in monthly export performance suggests traders should prepare for short-term fluctuations, but the long-term outlook remains positive due to India’s reliance on Indonesian energy supplies.
Strategic Moves
- Lock in Long-Term Supply Contracts: Indonesian exporters of mineral fuels (HS 27) should secure multi-year agreements with Indian buyers to stabilize revenue amid volatile monthly demand shifts.
- Diversify Import Sources: Indonesian importers should reduce dependency on Indian mineral fuels (HS 27) by exploring alternative suppliers in the Middle East or Africa to mitigate supply chain risks.
- Expand High-Value Exports: Indonesia must push beyond raw materials by increasing shipments of processed palm oil (HS 15) and metals (HS 72) to capture higher margins in India’s manufacturing sector.
Frequently Asked Questions
How did Indonesia - India trade perform in 2024 Q1?
Indonesia's exports to India totaled $5.10B with mixed YoY growth, while imports from India fell to $1.39B, marking persistent YoY declines.
What are the top exports from Indonesia to India?
The top exports are Mineral fuels and oils (HS 27), followed by HS 15 and HS 72, accounting for 65.51% of total exports.
What does Indonesia import from India?
Indonesia primarily imports Mineral fuels and oils (HS 27) from India, making up 18.60% of total imports.
What is the trade balance between Indonesia and India?
Indonesia holds a trade surplus of $3.71B, with exports nearly 3.7x higher than imports, reinforcing its strong net exporter role.
Indonesia - India Trade 2024 Whole Year: $6.6B Surplus
Indonesia's $6.6B trade surplus with India highlights the volatile 2024 trend, dominated by mineral fuels/oils swaps. Explore Indonesia India trade trends & top trading products via yTrade data.
Indonesia - India Trade 2024 Q2: Surplus & Energy Focus
Indonesia's $2.89B trade surplus with India in Q2 2024 highlights robust energy trade, with HS 27 dominating Indonesia India trade trends. Verified by yTrade data.
