Indonesia - India Trade 2024 Whole Year: $6.6B Surplus
Key Market Takeaways: Indonesia - India Trade
The bilateral trade relationship between Indonesia and India is marked by Indonesia's dominant export surplus and volatile growth trends in 2024.
- $6.6B Surplus for Indonesia: Exports to India ($8.86B) dwarf imports ($2.26B), but India’s import demand is collapsing (-34.3% YoY).
- Resource-for-Resource Trade: Indonesia - India trade statistics reveal both sides exchange HS 27 (Mineral fuels/oils), signaling energy product swaps rather than complementary goods.
- Bulk Commodity Dependence: The partnership lacks high-value supply chain integration, relying on raw material flows with no clear value-add advantage for either side.
This bilateral trade snapshot is based on verified customs data from the yTrade database.
Indonesia-India Trade Trend in Whole Year 2024
Indonesia Export Performance: Shipments to India
- Total Volume: $8.86B (Jan-May 2024).
- Growth Trend & Context: YoY growth was mixed, with strong rebounds in April (+17.54%) and May (+27.64%), offsetting February’s -5.33% dip. No news drivers were reported.
- Key Volatility: March saw a sharp 16.78% MoM surge, while February dropped -14.49% MoM.
Indonesia Import Performance: Sourcing from India
- Total Volume: $2.26B (Jan-May 2024).
- Growth Trend & Context: Persistent YoY declines, averaging -34.3%, with May’s -46.9% being the steepest. No news explained the contraction.
- Key Volatility: January’s 21.14% MoM jump was followed by a -15.18% drop in February.
Indonesia - India Trade Balance & Market Dynamics
- Net Position: $6.6B surplus for Indonesia (Exports $8.86B > Imports $2.26B).
- Relationship Status: Indonesia maintains a dominant net exporter role, with exports nearly 4x imports. Demand for Indonesian goods in India appears resilient despite import weakness.
Indonesia Import Trend from India 2024 Whole Year (Source: yTrade)**
| Month | Value | MoM | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jan | 508.36M | 21.14% | -23.18% |
| Feb | 431.20M | -15.18% | -33.81% |
| Mar | 445.94M | 3.42% | -44.24% |
| Apr | 432.76M | -2.96% | -23.6% |
| May | 441.61M | 2.05% | -46.9% |
| Total | 2.26B | - | - |
Indonesia Export Trend to India 2024 Whole Year (Source: yTrade)**
| Month | Value | MoM | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jan | 1.79B | -2.73% | 31.85% |
| Feb | 1.53B | -14.49% | -5.33% |
| Mar | 1.78B | 16.78% | 4.85% |
| Apr | 1.82B | 1.82% | 17.54% |
| May | 1.95B | 7.23% | 27.64% |
| Total | 8.86B | - | - |
Get Historical Indonesia India Trade Records
Indonesia-India Top Trading Products in Whole Year 2024
Indonesia Export Profile: What Does Indonesia Sell to India
- Top Commodity: Rank #1 export is HS 27 (Mineral fuels, oils, etc.) with a 38.18% share.
- Demand Driver: India uses these for industrial processing and energy needs.
- Concentration: Trade is highly concentrated, with HS 27 alone accounting for over 38% of exports.
Indonesia Import Profile: What Does Indonesia Buy from India
- Top Commodity: Rank #1 import is HS 27 (Mineral fuels, oils, etc.) with a 16.99% share.
- Dependency Nature: Energy security dependency, though less concentrated than exports.
Indonesia - India Trade Relationship Dynamics
- The Exchange Model: Resource-for-Resource Trade—both sides exchange similar categories (HS 27 dominates both flows), indicating energy product swaps rather than complementary goods.
- Value Chain Position: Neither side holds a clear high-value-add position; trade is dominated by bulk commodities.
Import Analysis by Product: India to Indonesia (Source: yTrade)
| HS Code | Value | Percent |
|---|---|---|
| 27 | 383.98M | 16.99% |
| 84 | 249.90M | 11.06% |
| 87 | 222.30M | 9.84% |
| 12 | 164.78M | 7.29% |
| 29 | 137.33M | 6.08% |
| 72 | 136.27M | 6.03% |
| 85 | 77.21M | 3.42% |
| 26 | 68.44M | 3.03% |
| 28 | 59.22M | 2.62% |
| 32 | 53.46M | 2.37% |
Export Analysis by Product: Indonesia to India (Source: yTrade)
| HS Code | Value | Percent |
|---|---|---|
| 27 | 3.38B | 38.18% |
| 15 | 1.37B | 15.47% |
| 71 | 761.64M | 8.60% |
| 72 | 712.43M | 8.04% |
| 26 | 616.24M | 6.96% |
| 28 | 253.82M | 2.87% |
| 38 | 184.79M | 2.09% |
| 29 | 150.78M | 1.70% |
| 84 | 132.23M | 1.49% |
| 18 | 121.32M | 1.37% |
Check Detailed Indonesia-India Trade HS Code Breakdown
Future Outlook & Strategic Recommendations
Forecast
Indonesia’s trade surplus with India is expected to widen further in 2024, driven by resilient demand for Indonesian mineral fuels (HS 27) and India’s persistent energy needs. However, the sharp decline in Indonesian imports from India (-34.3% YoY) signals a potential imbalance that could strain long-term trade relations if unaddressed. Volatility in monthly trade flows—particularly in energy swaps—suggests traders should prepare for price fluctuations and supply chain disruptions. Without diversification, both economies risk over-reliance on a single commodity exchange, leaving trade vulnerable to external shocks.
Strategic Moves
- Diversify Export Offerings: Indonesian exporters must reduce dependence on HS 27 by promoting secondary commodities like palm oil (HS 15) or rubber (HS 40) to Indian buyers, leveraging India’s growing consumer market.
- Secure Fixed-Price Contracts: Given the volatility in mineral fuel trade, Indonesian energy suppliers should lock in long-term agreements with Indian refiners to stabilize revenue streams and mitigate price swings.
- Address Import Decline: Indonesian importers should investigate India’s weakening exports (e.g., pharmaceuticals or machinery) and negotiate preferential terms to rebalance the trade relationship and avoid protectionist backlash.
Frequently Asked Questions
How did Indonesia - India trade perform in 2024 Whole Year?
Indonesia exported $8.86B to India (Jan-May 2024) with mixed YoY growth, while imports from India fell 34.3% YoY to $2.26B.
What are the top exports from Indonesia to India?
HS 27 (Mineral fuels, oils, etc.) dominated Indonesia’s exports to India, accounting for 38.18% of total shipments.
What does Indonesia import from India?
HS 27 (Mineral fuels, oils, etc.) was also the top import from India, though less concentrated at 16.99% of total imports.
What is the trade balance between Indonesia and India?
Indonesia maintained a $6.6B surplus, with exports nearly 4x higher than imports. The gap reflects resilient demand for Indonesian goods in India.
Indonesia - India Trade 2023 Q4: Stagnant but Stable
Indonesia's trade surplus with India hit $4.42B in Q4 2023, fueled by mineral fuel exports. Explore Indonesia-India trade trends and top trading products via yTrade data.
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Indonesia's trade surplus with India hits $3.71B in Q1 2024, fueled by mineral fuels. Explore Indonesia India trade trends and top trading products via yTrade data.
