Indonesia - India Trade 2023 Q4: Stagnant but Stable
Key Market Takeaways: Indonesia - India Trade
The bilateral trade relationship between Indonesia and India remains stable but stagnant in Q4 2023.
- Indonesia holds a $4.42B surplus, with exports to India ($5.72B) dwarfing imports ($1.30B), though both flows showed flat YoY growth.
- Resource-for-Tech exchange dominates: Indonesia supplies mineral fuels (38.7% of exports) while importing machinery (13.2% of imports), per Indonesia - India trade statistics.
- Complementary but imbalanced: Indonesia’s commodity-heavy exports contrast India’s higher-value machinery, creating asymmetric interdependence.
This bilateral trade snapshot is based on verified customs data from the yTrade database.
Indonesia-India Trade Trend in Q4 2023
Indonesia Export Performance: Shipments to India
- Total Volume: $5.72B in Q4 2023.
- Growth Trend & Context: YoY growth flat (0.0%) across all months, indicating stagnant demand or pricing stability. No significant policy shifts or disruptions noted.
- Key Volatility: October saw the highest MoM surge (+24.88%), while December dropped (-8.47%), suggesting year-end demand softening.
Indonesia Import Performance: Sourcing from India
- Total Volume: $1.30B in Q4 2023.
- Growth Trend & Context: YoY growth also flat (0.0%), mirroring export trends. No supply shocks or policy changes reported.
- Key Volatility: November peaked (+10.38% MoM), but December declined sharply (-9.41%), possibly reflecting inventory adjustments.
Indonesia - India Trade Balance & Market Dynamics
- Net Position: $4.42B surplus for Indonesia (Exports $5.72B > Imports $1.30B).
- Relationship Status: Indonesia maintains a strong net exporter role, with exports to India exceeding imports by over 4x. Trade remains unbalanced but stable.
Indonesia Import Trend from India 2023 Q4 (Source: yTrade)**
| Month | Value | MoM | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct | 419.67M | 15.65% | 0.0% |
| Nov | 463.22M | 10.38% | 0.0% |
| Dec | 419.64M | -9.41% | 0.0% |
| Total | 1.30B | - | - |
Indonesia Export Trend to India 2023 Q4 (Source: yTrade)**
| Month | Value | MoM | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct | 1.87B | 24.88% | 0.0% |
| Nov | 2.01B | 7.04% | 0.0% |
| Dec | 1.84B | -8.47% | 0.0% |
| Total | 5.72B | - | - |
Get Historical Indonesia India Trade Records
Indonesia-India Top Trading Products in Q4 2023
Indonesia Export Profile: What Does Indonesia Sell to India
- Top Commodity: Rank #1 export is HS 27 (Mineral Fuels) at 38.67% of total exports to India.
- Demand Driver: India uses these for industrial processing and energy needs.
- Concentration: Trade is highly concentrated, with HS 27 alone accounting for nearly 40% of exports.
Indonesia Import Profile: What Does Indonesia Buy from India
- Top Commodity: Rank #1 import is HS 84 (Nuclear Reactors, Machinery) at 13.23% of total imports from India.
- Dependency Nature: Reflects critical technology dependency, as machinery is essential for industrial and infrastructure development.
Indonesia - India Trade Relationship Dynamics
- The Exchange Model: Resource-for-Tech Complementarity. Indonesia supplies raw materials (Mineral Fuels, Ores) to India, while importing high-value machinery and equipment.
- Value Chain Position: India holds the higher value-add position, exporting complex machinery (HS 84, 85) against Indonesia's commodity-heavy exports (HS 27, 15).
Import Analysis by Product: India to Indonesia (Source: yTrade)
| HS Code | Value | Percent |
|---|---|---|
| 84 | 172.30M | 13.23% |
| 87 | 147.80M | 11.35% |
| 02 | 103.18M | 7.92% |
| 29 | 95.52M | 7.33% |
| 72 | 74.62M | 5.73% |
| 12 | 68.72M | 5.28% |
| 85 | 42.83M | 3.29% |
| 28 | 41.91M | 3.22% |
| 24 | 36.32M | 2.79% |
| 09 | 34.80M | 2.67% |
Export Analysis by Product: Indonesia to India (Source: yTrade)
| HS Code | Value | Percent |
|---|---|---|
| 27 | 2.21B | 38.67% |
| 15 | 1.18B | 20.67% |
| 72 | 462.98M | 8.10% |
| 26 | 322.47M | 5.64% |
| 28 | 171.47M | 3.00% |
| 31 | 131.03M | 2.29% |
| 38 | 129.32M | 2.26% |
| 84 | 116.74M | 2.04% |
| 71 | 104.38M | 1.83% |
| 80 | 88.04M | 1.54% |
Check Detailed Indonesia-India Trade HS Code Breakdown
Future Outlook & Strategic Recommendations
Forecast for Indonesia-India Trade
The Indonesia-India trade relationship is expected to remain stable in the near term, with modest growth potential. Given the flat YoY performance in Q4 2023, demand for Indonesia’s mineral fuels (HS 27) and India’s machinery (HS 84) is likely to persist, but without significant expansion unless new policy incentives or supply chain efficiencies emerge. Volatility in monthly trade flows—particularly the year-end dip—suggests traders should prepare for seasonal adjustments. However, the entrenched resource-for-tech complementarity ensures a steady baseline, making the Indonesia-India trade forecast cautiously optimistic for 2024.
Strategic Moves for Traders & Policymakers
- Lock in Fuel Supply Contracts: Indonesian exporters of mineral fuels should secure long-term agreements with Indian buyers to mitigate price fluctuations and stabilize revenue streams.
- Diversify Import Sources: Indonesian importers reliant on Indian machinery (HS 84) must explore alternative suppliers in markets like Japan or Germany to reduce dependency and enhance bargaining power.
- Invest in Trade Infrastructure: Both nations should prioritize port upgrades and digital customs clearance to streamline the exchange of high-volume commodities (HS 27) and time-sensitive machinery (HS 84), cutting delays and costs.
Frequently Asked Questions
How did Indonesia - India trade perform in 2023 Q4?
Indonesia's exports to India totaled $5.72B, while imports were $1.30B, with both showing flat YoY growth (0.0%).
What are the top exports from Indonesia to India?
Mineral Fuels (HS 27) dominated, accounting for 38.67% of Indonesia's exports to India.
What does Indonesia import from India?
Nuclear Reactors and Machinery (HS 84) were the top imports, making up 13.23% of total imports from India.
What is the trade balance between Indonesia and India?
Indonesia maintained a $4.42B trade surplus with India, with exports exceeding imports by over 4x.
Indonesia - India Trade 2023 Q3: Stagnant Growth
Indonesia's trade with India stagnated in Q3 2023, with a $3.83B surplus. Explore Indonesia India trade trends and top trading products via yTrade data.
Indonesia - India Trade 2024 Whole Year: $6.6B Surplus
Indonesia's $6.6B trade surplus with India highlights the volatile 2024 trend, dominated by mineral fuels/oils swaps. Explore Indonesia India trade trends & top trading products via yTrade data.
