Indonesia - India Trade 2023 Q3: Stagnant Growth
Key Market Takeaways: Indonesia - India Trade
The bilateral trade relationship between Indonesia and India stagnated in Q3 2023, with flat YoY growth in both exports and imports.
- Indonesia holds a $3.83B surplus, exporting $5.17B (primarily fats/oils and fuels) while importing $1.34B (vehicles, machinery, and chemicals) from India.
- Trade statistics reveal a resource-for-tech exchange: Indonesia supplies bulk commodities (60% concentrated in top 2 categories), while India delivers higher-value manufactured goods.
- Complementary but imbalanced: Indonesia’s raw material exports fuel India’s industrial needs, but the relationship lacks diversification beyond core commodities.
This bilateral trade snapshot is based on verified customs data from the yTrade database.
Indonesia-India Trade Trend in Q3 2023
Indonesia Export Performance: Shipments to India
- Total Volume: $5.17B in Q3 2023.
- Growth Trend & Context:
- YoY growth flat (0.0%), indicating stagnation compared to 2022.
- Key Volatility: September saw an 18.63% MoM drop, the sharpest decline in the quarter.
Indonesia Import Performance: Sourcing from India
- Total Volume: $1.34B in Q3 2023.
- Growth Trend & Context:
- YoY growth flat (0.0%), mirroring export trends.
- Key Volatility: Imports fell consistently MoM, with September recording a 20.59% plunge—the lowest monthly value.
Indonesia - India Trade Balance & Market Dynamics
- Net Position: $3.83B surplus for Indonesia (Exports: $5.17B > Imports: $1.34B).
- Relationship Status: Indonesia maintains a strong net exporter role, with exports nearly 4x imports.
Indonesia Import Trend from India 2023 Q3 (Source: yTrade)**
| Month | Value | MoM | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jul | 524.10M | -3.61% | 0.0% |
| Aug | 456.97M | -12.81% | 0.0% |
| Sep | 362.88M | -20.59% | 0.0% |
| Total | 1.34B | - | - |
Indonesia Export Trend to India 2023 Q3 (Source: yTrade)**
| Month | Value | MoM | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jul | 1.82B | 9.39% | 0.0% |
| Aug | 1.84B | 1.08% | 0.0% |
| Sep | 1.50B | -18.63% | 0.0% |
| Total | 5.17B | - | - |
Get Historical Indonesia India Trade Records
Indonesia-India Top Trading Products in Q3 2023
Indonesia Export Profile: What Does Indonesia Sell to India
- Top Commodity: HS Code 15 (Animal/vegetable fats and oils) dominates at 29.72% of exports.
- Demand Driver: India likely uses these for industrial processing (e.g., food manufacturing, biofuels).
- Concentration: High—top 2 categories (HS 15 and 27) account for nearly 60% of exports, indicating heavy reliance on a few commodities.
Indonesia Import Profile: What Does Indonesia Buy from India
- Top Commodity: HS Code 87 (Vehicles) leads at 13.20% of imports.
- Dependency Nature: Imports include machinery (HS 84), chemicals (HS 29), and steel (HS 72), suggesting a mix of industrial inputs and technology.
Indonesia - India Trade Relationship Dynamics
- The Exchange Model: Resource-for-Tech Complementarity. Indonesia exports raw materials (fats, fuels, ores) and imports higher-value goods (vehicles, machinery, chemicals).
- Value Chain Position: India holds the higher value-add position, supplying finished products (vehicles) and advanced intermediates (chemicals), while Indonesia provides bulk commodities.
Import Analysis by Product: India to Indonesia (Source: yTrade)
| HS Code | Value | Percent |
|---|---|---|
| 87 | 177.41M | 13.20% |
| 84 | 166.69M | 12.40% |
| 02 | 144.16M | 10.73% |
| 27 | 121.51M | 9.04% |
| 29 | 77.38M | 5.76% |
| 72 | 76.16M | 5.67% |
| 85 | 53.64M | 3.99% |
| 26 | 40.88M | 3.04% |
| 38 | 35.82M | 2.67% |
| 12 | 32.10M | 2.39% |
Export Analysis by Product: Indonesia to India (Source: yTrade)
| HS Code | Value | Percent |
|---|---|---|
| 15 | 1.54B | 29.72% |
| 27 | 1.53B | 29.59% |
| 72 | 436.54M | 8.45% |
| 26 | 291.06M | 5.63% |
| 38 | 159.26M | 3.08% |
| 28 | 98.62M | 1.91% |
| 84 | 89.10M | 1.72% |
| 71 | 76.77M | 1.49% |
| 85 | 66.07M | 1.28% |
| 80 | 62.86M | 1.22% |
Check Detailed Indonesia-India Trade HS Code Breakdown
Future Outlook & Strategic Recommendations
Forecast
Indonesia’s trade surplus with India is expected to hold steady in Q4 2023, but stagnation in both exports and imports signals a need for strategic adjustments. The heavy reliance on HS Code 15 (fats/oils) and HS Code 27 (fuels) leaves Indonesia vulnerable to commodity price swings, while India’s demand for industrial inputs may slow if global economic conditions weaken. However, India’s growing manufacturing sector could drive renewed demand for Indonesian raw materials, provided exporters adapt to shifting buyer priorities. Traders should prepare for volatility, particularly in bulk commodity shipments.
Strategic Moves
- Diversify Export Mix: Reduce dependence on fats/oils and fuels by expanding into processed agricultural goods or minerals, where Indonesia holds untapped potential.
- Lock in Long-Term Contracts: With India’s vehicle and machinery imports stable, Indonesian buyers should secure multi-year deals to hedge against supply chain disruptions.
- Monitor India’s Industrial Policy: Anticipate shifts in India’s import needs by tracking subsidies for biofuels (impacting HS 15 demand) or production-linked incentives for machinery (affecting HS 84 flows).
Frequently Asked Questions
How did Indonesia - India trade perform in 2023 Q3?
Indonesia's trade with India stagnated in Q3 2023, with both exports ($5.17B) and imports ($1.34B) showing 0.0% YoY growth. September saw sharp monthly declines in both directions.
What are the top exports from Indonesia to India?
Animal/vegetable fats and oils (HS 15) dominated Indonesia’s exports to India (29.72%), followed by fuels (HS 27), together accounting for nearly 60% of shipments.
What does Indonesia import from India?
Vehicles (HS 87) led Indonesia’s imports from India (13.20%), alongside machinery (HS 84), chemicals (HS 29), and steel (HS 72), reflecting a tech-industrial mix.
What is the trade balance between Indonesia and India?
Indonesia holds a $3.83B trade surplus with India, exporting nearly 4x more than it imports. The surplus remained stable with flat YoY growth in
Q3.
Indonesia - India Trade 2023 Q2: Stalled Momentum
Indonesia's trade surplus with India hits $2.8B, but growth stalls. Explore Indonesia India trade trends and top trading products like crude fuels on yTrade.
Indonesia - India Trade 2023 Q4: Stagnant but Stable
Indonesia's trade surplus with India hit $4.42B in Q4 2023, fueled by mineral fuel exports. Explore Indonesia-India trade trends and top trading products via yTrade data.
