Indonesia - India Trade 2023 Q2: Stalled Momentum
Key Market Takeaways: Indonesia - India Trade
The bilateral trade relationship between Indonesia and India stagnated in Q2 2023, with flat YoY growth and volatile monthly swings.
- Economic Pulse: Indonesia holds a $2.8B trade surplus ($4.74B exports vs. $1.94B imports), but both flows showed zero YoY growth, signaling stalled momentum.
- Exchange Structure: Indonesia - India trade statistics reveal a resource-for-resource exchange—crude fuels (39% of exports) and fats flow to India, while refined fuels (20% of imports) and machinery return.
- Strategic Interdependence: Partial supply chain integration exists, with India adding value through refined exports and industrial goods, while Indonesia leans on raw material dominance.
This bilateral trade snapshot is based on verified customs data from the yTrade database.
Indonesia-India Trade Trend in Q2 2023
Indonesia Export Performance: Shipments to India
- Total Volume: $4.74B in Q2 2023.
- Growth Trend & Context: YoY growth flat (0.0% across all months). No significant policy shifts or external events to explain stagnation.
- Key Volatility: June saw a 9.35% MoM rebound after consecutive declines in April (-9.17%) and May (-1.26%).
Indonesia Import Performance: Sourcing from India
- Total Volume: $1.94B in Q2 2023.
- Growth Trend & Context: YoY growth flat (0.0%). No news to contextualize the lack of momentum.
- Key Volatility: May spiked 46.82% MoM, followed by a sharp -34.62% drop in June. Extreme month-to-month swings suggest unstable demand or supply chain disruptions.
Indonesia - India Trade Balance & Market Dynamics
- Net Position: Trade surplus of $2.8B (Exports $4.74B vs. Imports $1.94B).
- Relationship Status: Indonesia maintains a strong net exporter role, with exports more than double imports. Volatility in imports hints at uneven procurement patterns.
Indonesia Import Trend from India 2023 Q2 (Source: yTrade)**
| Month | Value | MoM | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|
| Apr | 566.43M | -29.17% | 0.0% |
| May | 831.61M | 46.82% | 0.0% |
| Jun | 543.73M | -34.62% | 0.0% |
| Total | 1.94B | - | - |
Indonesia Export Trend to India 2023 Q2 (Source: yTrade)**
| Month | Value | MoM | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|
| Apr | 1.54B | -9.17% | 0.0% |
| May | 1.53B | -1.26% | 0.0% |
| Jun | 1.67B | 9.35% | 0.0% |
| Total | 4.74B | - | - |
Get Historical Indonesia India Trade Records
Indonesia-India Top Trading Products in Q2 2023
Indonesia Export Profile: What Does Indonesia Sell to India
- Top Commodity: Rank #1 export is HS Code 27 (Mineral fuels, oils, distillation products) at 38.97% of total exports to India.
- Demand Driver: India imports these for industrial processing and energy needs, reflecting its growing manufacturing and energy demand.
- Concentration: Trade is highly concentrated, with the top commodity (HS 27) accounting for nearly 39% of exports, followed by HS 15 (Animal/vegetable fats) at 20.12%.
Indonesia Import Profile: What Does Indonesia Buy from India
- Top Commodity: Rank #1 import is HS Code 27 (Mineral fuels, oils, distillation products) at 20.03% of total imports from India.
- Dependency Nature: This suggests energy security dependency, as Indonesia sources refined petroleum products from India. Other key imports include vehicles (HS 87) and machinery (HS 84), indicating industrial supply chain reliance.
Indonesia - India Trade Relationship Dynamics
- The Exchange Model: Resource-for-Resource Complementarity, with both countries trading mineral fuels (HS 27) but in different forms (crude vs. refined). Indonesia also supplies fats (HS 15) while importing machinery and vehicles, hinting at partial supply chain integration.
- Value Chain Position: India holds a higher value-add position, exporting refined fuels (HS 27) and machinery (HS 84), while Indonesia’s exports are more raw-material heavy (crude fuels, fats).
Import Analysis by Product: India to Indonesia (Source: yTrade)
| HS Code | Value | Percent |
|---|---|---|
| 27 | 388.96M | 20.03% |
| 87 | 296.70M | 15.28% |
| 84 | 149.31M | 7.69% |
| 29 | 118.41M | 6.10% |
| 72 | 105.73M | 5.45% |
| 12 | 99.51M | 5.12% |
| 17 | 84.30M | 4.34% |
| 02 | 63.13M | 3.25% |
| 73 | 60.54M | 3.12% |
| 25 | 55.52M | 2.86% |
Export Analysis by Product: Indonesia to India (Source: yTrade)
| HS Code | Value | Percent |
|---|---|---|
| 27 | 1.85B | 38.97% |
| 15 | 953.02M | 20.12% |
| 72 | 354.00M | 7.47% |
| 71 | 247.66M | 5.23% |
| 28 | 143.90M | 3.04% |
| 26 | 116.64M | 2.46% |
| 38 | 98.47M | 2.08% |
| 47 | 90.11M | 1.90% |
| 80 | 85.75M | 1.81% |
| 48 | 74.86M | 1.58% |
Check Detailed Indonesia-India Trade HS Code Breakdown
Future Outlook & Strategic Recommendations
Forecast
Indonesia’s trade with India is expected to stabilize in the near term, with modest growth potential driven by sustained demand for mineral fuels (HS 27) and industrial inputs. However, the extreme volatility in imports—particularly the 46.82% MoM spike followed by a -34.62% drop—signals underlying supply chain fragility. Traders should anticipate uneven procurement patterns, especially in refined petroleum (HS 27) and machinery (HS 84), as India’s domestic energy and manufacturing policies could disrupt flows. The Indonesia - India trade forecast hinges on stabilizing these swings to unlock deeper integration.
Strategic Moves
- Lock in Long-Term Fuel Contracts: Given the high concentration of mineral fuel trade (38.97% of exports, 20.03% of imports), Indonesian exporters and importers should secure fixed-price agreements to mitigate volatility risks.
- Diversify Industrial Imports: Reduce reliance on India’s machinery (HS 84) and vehicles (HS 87) by exploring alternative suppliers in Southeast Asia or Europe to buffer against sudden procurement shocks.
- Invest in Refining Capacity: To capture higher value-add opportunities, Indonesian energy firms should explore partnerships with Indian refiners to process crude domestically, shifting from raw-material exports to finished products.
Frequently Asked Questions
How did Indonesia - India trade perform in 2023 Q2?
Indonesia's exports to India totaled $4.74B, with flat YoY growth (0.0%). Imports from India stood at $1.94B, also showing no YoY growth.
What are the top exports from Indonesia to India?
Mineral fuels, oils, and distillation products (HS Code 27) accounted for 38.97% of exports, followed by animal/vegetable fats (HS Code 15) at 20.12%.
What does Indonesia import from India?
Top imports include mineral fuels, oils (HS Code 27) at 20.03%, along with vehicles (HS Code 87) and machinery (HS Code 84).
What is the trade balance between Indonesia and India?
Indonesia maintained a trade surplus of $2.8B, with exports more than double imports. Volatility in imports suggests uneven procurement patterns.
Indonesia - India Trade 2023 Q1: Energy Trade Surge
Indonesia's $2.56B trade surplus with India highlights a strong energy trade dynamic, with mineral fuels dominating Indonesia India trade trends. Explore insights on yTrade.
Indonesia - India Trade 2023 Q3: Stagnant Growth
Indonesia's trade with India stagnated in Q3 2023, with a $3.83B surplus. Explore Indonesia India trade trends and top trading products via yTrade data.
