Indonesia - India Trade 2023 Q1: Energy Trade Surge
Key Market Takeaways: Indonesia - India Trade
The bilateral trade relationship between Indonesia and India shows a strong net exporter position for Indonesia in Q1 2023, despite mixed growth trends.
- Economic Pulse: Indonesia holds a $2.56B trade surplus with India ($4.67B exports vs. $2.11B imports), though import demand from India weakened sharply (-33.88% YoY in March).
- Exchange Structure: The trade is dominated by resource-for-resource exchange, with HS 27 (Mineral fuels, oils) accounting for 41.81% of Indonesia’s exports to India and 20.14% of imports—highlighting a bilateral energy trade dynamic.
- Strategic Interdependence: Indonesia serves as a key energy supplier to India, while both sides leverage refining or logistical advantages in this complementary exchange.
This bilateral trade snapshot is based on verified customs data from the yTrade database.
Indonesia-India Trade Trend in Q1 2023
Indonesia Export Performance: Shipments to India
- Total Volume: $4.67B in Q1 2023.
- Growth Trend & Context:
- YoY growth was mixed: +30.18% in January, +12.63% in February, but a sharp -17.46% drop in March.
- No specific trade news to explain the March decline.
- Key Volatility: February saw the strongest MoM surge (+19.09%), while March growth slowed to +5.44%.
Indonesia Import Performance: Sourcing from India
- Total Volume: $2.11B in Q1 2023.
- Growth Trend & Context:
- Consistently negative YoY trends: -6.68% (Jan), -12.23% (Feb), and a steep -33.88% (Mar).
- Key Volatility: March imports spiked +22.75% MoM but remained deeply negative YoY.
Indonesia - India Trade Balance & Market Dynamics
- Net Position: $2.56B surplus for Indonesia (Exports $4.67B > Imports $2.11B).
- Relationship Status: Indonesia maintains a strong net exporter role, though import demand from India weakened significantly YoY.
Indonesia Import Trend from India 2023 Q1 (Source: yTrade)**
| Month | Value | MoM | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jan | 661.76M | 0.0% | -6.68% |
| Feb | 651.47M | -1.55% | -12.23% |
| Mar | 799.71M | 22.75% | -33.88% |
| Total | 2.11B | - | - |
Indonesia Export Trend to India 2023 Q1 (Source: yTrade)**
| Month | Value | MoM | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jan | 1.35B | 0.0% | 30.18% |
| Feb | 1.61B | 19.09% | 12.63% |
| Mar | 1.70B | 5.44% | -17.46% |
| Total | 4.67B | - | - |
Get Historical Indonesia India Trade Records
Indonesia-India Top Trading Products in Q1 2023
Indonesia Export Profile: What Does Indonesia Sell to India
- Top Commodity: Rank #1 export is HS 27 (Mineral fuels, oils) at 41.81% of total exports to India.
- Demand Driver: India uses these for industrial processing and energy needs, reflecting its reliance on imported energy.
- Concentration: Trade is highly concentrated, with HS 27 alone accounting for over 40% of exports.
Indonesia Import Profile: What Does Indonesia Buy from India
- Top Commodity: Rank #1 import is HS 27 (Mineral fuels, oils) at 20.14% of total imports from India.
- Dependency Nature: This suggests energy security dependency, though the share is less dominant than Indonesia's exports of the same category.
Indonesia - India Trade Relationship Dynamics
- The Exchange Model: Resource-for-Resource Trade, with both sides heavily exchanging mineral fuels (HS 27). This indicates a bilateral energy trade relationship, possibly driven by refining or logistical advantages.
- Value Chain Position: Indonesia holds a stronger export position in HS 27 (higher value and share), while India's exports of the same category are less dominant. This could imply Indonesia's role as a net energy supplier to India.
Import Analysis by Product: India to Indonesia (Source: yTrade)
| HS Code | Value | Percent |
|---|---|---|
| 27 | 425.60M | 20.14% |
| 87 | 330.13M | 15.62% |
| 84 | 175.09M | 8.29% |
| 29 | 126.28M | 5.98% |
| 72 | 108.49M | 5.13% |
| 17 | 108.48M | 5.13% |
| 73 | 96.18M | 4.55% |
| 12 | 86.77M | 4.11% |
| 85 | 45.33M | 2.15% |
| 02 | 38.40M | 1.82% |
Export Analysis by Product: Indonesia to India (Source: yTrade)
| HS Code | Value | Percent |
|---|---|---|
| 27 | 1.95B | 41.81% |
| 15 | 874.57M | 18.74% |
| 72 | 418.04M | 8.96% |
| 26 | 258.97M | 5.55% |
| 38 | 126.90M | 2.72% |
| 28 | 106.45M | 2.28% |
| 71 | 86.53M | 1.85% |
| 48 | 64.73M | 1.39% |
| 40 | 57.90M | 1.24% |
| 39 | 57.66M | 1.24% |
Check Detailed Indonesia-India Trade HS Code Breakdown
Future Outlook & Strategic Recommendations
Forecast for Indonesia-India Trade
The Indonesia-India trade relationship is likely to face near-term volatility, particularly in energy commodities (HS 27), given the sharp March 2023 export decline and India’s weakening import demand. However, Indonesia’s strong surplus position and India’s structural reliance on imported fuels suggest a rebound in Q2, assuming stable energy prices. Traders should anticipate tighter margins in mineral fuels but expect sustained bilateral energy trade due to logistical efficiencies. Over the next year, Indonesia must diversify exports beyond HS 27 to mitigate concentration risks.
Strategic Moves for Traders & Policymakers
- Lock in Long-Term Fuel Contracts: Indonesian exporters should secure multi-year agreements with Indian refiners to stabilize revenue streams amid price fluctuations.
- Diversify Export Baskets: Reduce reliance on HS 27 by promoting Indonesian machinery (HS 84) and agricultural products (HS 12) to India, leveraging ASEAN-India FTA benefits.
- Monitor India’s Energy Policy Shifts: Track India’s renewable energy investments, which could disrupt fossil fuel demand. Indonesian traders must pivot quickly if India accelerates alternative energy adoption.
Frequently Asked Questions
How did Indonesia - India trade perform in 2023 Q1?
Indonesia's exports to India totaled $4.67B in Q1 2023, with mixed YoY growth (+30.18% in January, -17.46% in March). Imports from India fell YoY to $2.11B, marking a weak demand trend.
What are the top exports from Indonesia to India?
Mineral fuels and oils (HS 27) dominated Indonesia's exports to India, accounting for 41.81% of total shipments, reflecting India's reliance on imported energy.
What does Indonesia import from India?
Indonesia's top import from India was also mineral fuels and oils (HS 27), though less dominant at 20.14% of total imports, indicating a bilateral energy trade relationship.
What is the trade balance between Indonesia and India?
Indonesia maintained a strong trade surplus of $2.56B with India in Q1 2023, driven by higher exports of mineral fuels compared to imports.
Indonesia - India Trade 2023 Whole Year: Resource-Driven Surplus
Indonesia's $13.59B trade surplus with India in 2023 highlights a resource-for-resource model, with mineral fuels dominating. Explore Indonesia India trade trends and top trading products via yTrade data.
Indonesia - India Trade 2023 Q2: Stalled Momentum
Indonesia's trade surplus with India hits $2.8B, but growth stalls. Explore Indonesia India trade trends and top trading products like crude fuels on yTrade.
