Indonesia - India Trade 2025 Q1: $3.0B Surplus
Key Market Takeaways: Indonesia - India Trade
The bilateral trade relationship between Indonesia and India shows volatility but remains strongly in Indonesia's favor in Q1 2025.
- Economic Pulse: Indonesia holds a $3.0B trade surplus with India ($4.28B exports vs. $1.28B imports), though export growth was uneven with sharp YoY declines in January and March.
- Exchange Structure: Indonesia - India trade statistics reveal a resource-for-tech dynamic: Indonesia supplies mineral fuels (33.6% of exports) while importing vehicles, machinery, and chemicals from India.
- Strategic Interdependence: The partnership is highly complementary, with Indonesia feeding India’s energy needs and India providing higher-value industrial goods.
This bilateral trade snapshot is based on verified customs data from the yTrade database.
Indonesia-India Trade Trend in Q1 2025
Indonesia Export Performance: Shipments to India
- Total Volume: $4.28B in Q1 2025.
- Growth Trend & Context: YoY growth was volatile, with January (-31.47%) and March (-20.99%) showing sharp declines, offset by February's 8.06% rise. No specific news explains this inconsistency.
- Key Volatility: February saw a 34.84% MoM surge, while March dropped 14.62% MoM.
Indonesia Import Performance: Sourcing from India
- Total Volume: $1.28B in Q1 2025.
- Growth Trend & Context: YoY imports fell consistently (-10.8% in February, -16.85% in March), suggesting weakening demand or supply constraints. No news context provided.
- Key Volatility: February imports plunged 27.21% MoM, the sharpest quarterly drop.
Indonesia - India Trade Balance & Market Dynamics
- Net Position: $3.0B trade surplus for Indonesia (Exports $4.28B > Imports $1.28B).
- Relationship Status: Indonesia maintains a strong net exporter role, with exports triple the import volume.
Indonesia Import Trend from India 2025 Q1 (Source: yTrade)**
| Month | Value | MoM | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jan | 528.41M | 0.0% | 3.94% |
| Feb | 384.63M | -27.21% | -10.8% |
| Mar | 370.80M | -3.6% | -16.85% |
| Total | 1.28B | - | - |
Indonesia Export Trend to India 2025 Q1 (Source: yTrade)**
| Month | Value | MoM | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jan | 1.22B | 0.0% | -31.47% |
| Feb | 1.65B | 34.84% | 8.06% |
| Mar | 1.41B | -14.62% | -20.99% |
| Total | 4.28B | - | - |
Get Historical Indonesia India Trade Records
Indonesia-India Top Trading Products in Q1 2025
Indonesia Export Profile: What Does Indonesia Sell to India
- Top Commodity: Rank #1 export is HS Code 27 (Mineral fuels, oils, waxes) at 33.61% of total exports to India.
- Demand Driver: India uses these for industrial processing and energy needs, reflecting its reliance on imported energy resources.
- Concentration: Trade is highly concentrated, with the top 3 exports (HS 27, 15, 72) accounting for 58.56% of total exports.
Indonesia Import Profile: What Does Indonesia Buy from India
- Top Commodity: Rank #1 import is HS Code 87 (Vehicles, parts) at 13.59% of total imports from India.
- Dependency Nature: Imports are diverse, spanning machinery (HS 84, 85), chemicals (HS 29, 28), and agricultural goods (HS 12, 02), indicating a mix of industrial and consumer demand.
Indonesia - India Trade Relationship Dynamics
- The Exchange Model: Resource-for-Tech Complementarity. Indonesia exports raw materials (mineral fuels, fats/oils) to India, while importing higher-value goods like vehicles, machinery, and chemicals.
- Value Chain Position: India holds the higher value-add position, with exports dominated by processed goods (vehicles, machinery) versus Indonesia’s resource-heavy exports.
Import Analysis by Product: India to Indonesia (Source: yTrade)
| HS Code | Value | Percent |
|---|---|---|
| 87 | 174.42M | 13.59% |
| 84 | 163.72M | 12.75% |
| 29 | 104.39M | 8.13% |
| 12 | 78.51M | 6.11% |
| 24 | 58.17M | 4.53% |
| 28 | 55.44M | 4.32% |
| 02 | 54.12M | 4.22% |
| 85 | 51.31M | 4.00% |
| 32 | 33.16M | 2.58% |
| 27 | 29.53M | 2.30% |
Export Analysis by Product: Indonesia to India (Source: yTrade)
| HS Code | Value | Percent |
|---|---|---|
| 27 | 1.44B | 33.61% |
| 15 | 724.77M | 16.92% |
| 72 | 343.99M | 8.03% |
| 28 | 244.63M | 5.71% |
| 38 | 181.61M | 4.24% |
| 18 | 155.75M | 3.64% |
| 29 | 131.48M | 3.07% |
| 85 | 125.55M | 2.93% |
| 09 | 68.66M | 1.60% |
| 84 | 66.38M | 1.55% |
Check Detailed Indonesia-India Trade HS Code Breakdown
Future Outlook & Strategic Recommendations
Forecast for Indonesia-India Trade
Indonesia’s trade surplus with India is likely to persist in Q2 2025, driven by sustained demand for mineral fuels (HS 27) and fats/oils (HS 15). However, volatility in export growth—marked by sharp monthly swings—signals potential supply chain disruptions or pricing pressures. India’s weakening import demand, particularly for vehicles (HS 87) and machinery, may further constrain bilateral trade expansion. To stabilize flows, both nations must address structural imbalances, with Indonesia diversifying exports beyond raw materials and India securing long-term energy supply agreements.
Strategic Moves for Traders & Policymakers
- Lock in Energy Contracts: Indonesian exporters of mineral fuels should negotiate multi-year supply deals with Indian buyers to mitigate price volatility and ensure stable revenue streams.
- Diversify Export Basket: Indonesia must reduce reliance on HS 27 by promoting processed goods (e.g., refined palm oil, nickel-based products) to capture higher value in the India market.
- Monitor Indian Industrial Demand: Importers of Indian vehicles and machinery should track India’s domestic manufacturing policies (e.g., PLI schemes) to anticipate shifts in pricing and availability.
Frequently Asked Questions
How did Indonesia - India trade perform in 2025 Q1?
Indonesia exported $4.28B to India and imported $1.28B, with volatile YoY growth in exports (-31.47% in January, +8.06% in February) and consistent YoY import declines (-10.8% to -16.85%).
What are the top exports from Indonesia to India?
Mineral fuels, oils, and waxes (HS Code 27) dominated Indonesia’s exports to India, accounting for 33.61% of total exports, followed by fats/oils (HS 15) and metals (HS 72).
What does Indonesia import from India?
Vehicles and parts (HS Code 87) were the top import, making up 13.59% of total imports, alongside machinery (HS 84, 85), chemicals (HS 29, 28), and agricultural goods.
What is the trade balance between Indonesia and India?
Indonesia had a $3.0B trade surplus with India in Q1 2025, as exports ($4.28B) tripled imports ($1.28B), reinforcing its net exporter role.
Indonesia - India Trade 2024 Q2: Surplus & Energy Focus
Indonesia's $2.89B trade surplus with India in Q2 2024 highlights robust energy trade, with HS 27 dominating Indonesia India trade trends. Verified by yTrade data.
Indonesia - India Trade 2025 Q2: Resource-for-Tech Surplus
Indonesia's $3.54B trade surplus with India in Q2 2025 highlights a resource-for-tech exchange. Explore Indonesia India trade trends and top trading products via yTrade data.
