2025 Indonesia Baked Pastries (HS 1905) Export: Price Collapse & Stability

Key Takeaways

Baked Pastries, classified under HS Code 1905 (Bread, pastries, biscuits and other baked pastries, whether or not they contain cocoa; communion cakes, empty pouches for medicine, sealing, glutinous rice paper and similar products), exhibited extreme volatility before stabilizing from January to September 2025.

• Market Pulse: Prices collapsed 73% in February 2025 after an anomalous $9.53/kg peak, then stabilized between $2.48-$2.66/kg from March onward, with monthly values fluctuating between $54M-$75M.
• Structural Shift: Indonesia Baked Pastries Export relies heavily on Malaysia (27.96% of value), creating concentration risk, while high-frequency, premium-driven demand suggests retail/e-commerce dominance.
• Product Logic: HS Code 1905 trade data reveals a split between bulk commodities (e.g., $0.21/kg rusks) and high-value specialties (e.g., $16+ communion wafers), with waffles/wafers and sweet biscuits dominating exports.

This overview covers the period from January to September 2025 and is based on verified customs data from the yTrade database.

Indonesia Baked Pastries (HS Code 1905) Key Metrics Trend

Market Trend Summary

The Indonesia Baked Pastries Export trend began 2025 with extreme volatility before stabilizing into a narrow trading range. January's anomalous $9.53/kg unit price collapsed 73% in February alongside a 67% value drop, despite a 25% volume increase. From March through September, exports entered a consolidation phase with unit prices holding steady between $2.48-$2.66/kg while monthly values fluctuated between $54M-$75M on relatively consistent volumes of 21M-29M kg.

Drivers & Industry Context

The February price anomaly likely reflects either data misclassification or a one-time shipment of premium products, as no corresponding policy changes occurred. The subsequent stabilization through Q2-Q3 2025 suggests normal market operations, though the proposed halal certification requirements [Global Cosmetics News] could impact future hs code 1905 value. Exporters should monitor the November 2025 WTO notification for finalized HS code inclusions, as mandatory certification would introduce new compliance costs and potential trade barriers for bakery products.

Table: Indonesia Baked Pastries Export Trend (Source: yTrade)

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Indonesia HS Code 1905 Export Breakdown

Market Composition & Top Categories

According to yTrade data, waffles and wafers dominate Indonesia's HS Code 1905 export, capturing over 30% of the total value in the first three quarters of 2025. Sweet biscuits follow closely, representing nearly 40% of exports when combined. The remaining sub-codes include various bakers' wares and niche products like communion wafers, which hold smaller but distinct shares in the market.

Value Chain & Strategic Insights

Unit prices range from $0.21 for basic rusks to over $16 for specialized items, indicating a market split between commodity and high-value finished goods. This HS Code 1905 trade structure is quality-sensitive, with premiums for specialized products rather than bulk commodities. Export strategies should prioritize higher-value segments to maximize returns, given the clear price differentiation.

Table: Indonesia HS Code 1905) Export Breakdown Details (Source: yTrade)

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Indonesia Baked Pastries Destination Countries

Geographic Concentration & Market Risk

From January to September 2025, Indonesia's Baked Pastries exports are heavily concentrated in Malaysia, which captures 27.96% of the total export value. This dominance highlights a significant market risk, as any disruption in Malaysian demand could sharply impact Indonesia's trade stability. The export destinations for Indonesia Baked Pastries remain primarily within Asia, underscoring a regional dependency that may require diversification to mitigate volatility.

Purchasing Behavior & Demand Segmentation

Malaysia's import profile shows a clear premium intent, with value ratio (27.96) far exceeding weight ratio (11.76), indicating quality-conscious demand for high-value Baked Pastries. The high frequency ratio (22.15) suggests fragmented, frequent purchases, likely driven by retail or e-commerce replenishment. This behavior offers Indonesian exporters margin potential rather than volume scale, focusing on premium specifications over bulk processing.

Table: Indonesia Baked Pastries (HS Code 1905) Top Destination Countries (Source: yTrade)

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Indonesia Baked Pastries Buyer Companies Analysis

Buyer Concentration & Market Structure

According to yTrade data, the Indonesia Baked Pastries export market is heavily concentrated among key accounts that combine high value and high frequency purchases, representing 95.95% of the total value share from January to September 2025. This structure points to a stable, contract-driven supply chain, typically involving large-scale retailers or food processors as the core Indonesia Baked Pastries buyers. The extreme dominance of this segment underscores a market reliant on a small group of powerful, repeat clients.

Purchasing Behavior & Sales Strategy

The HS Code 1905 buyer trends reveal that these high-volume repeaters maintain consistent, loyal purchasing patterns, indicating deep-rooted supplier relationships and predictable order cycles. Sales efforts should prioritize securing long-term contracts and offering tailored services to reinforce loyalty and prevent churn among these accounts. Given the concentration risk, where the loss of a single major buyer could disrupt operations, a balanced approach that nurtures existing partnerships while gradually expanding into secondary markets is essential for stability.

Table: Indonesia Baked Pastries (HS Code 1905) Top Buyers List (Source: yTrade)

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Action Plan for Baked Pastries Market Operation and Expansion

• Diversify export markets: Reduce reliance on Malaysia by targeting secondary Asian markets to mitigate geographic concentration risk.
• Lock in long-term contracts: Secure high-volume repeat buyers (95.95% of value share) with tailored services to prevent churn in this contract-driven market.
• Prioritize premium segments: Focus on high-value products like specialty wafers and sweet biscuits, where unit prices exceed $16, to maximize margins.
• Monitor halal certification: Track WTO notifications for mandatory halal requirements, which could introduce compliance costs for HS Code 1905 exports.
• Optimize logistics for bulk: For low-value items like rusks, streamline shipping to offset thin margins in commodity segments.

Take Action Now —— Explore Indonesia Baked Pastries HS Code 1905 Export Data

Frequently Asked Questions

Q1. What is driving the recent changes in Indonesia Baked Pastries Export in 2025?

The market began 2025 with extreme volatility, including a 73% unit price drop in February, before stabilizing into a narrow trading range. The anomaly likely reflects a one-time premium shipment, while the consolidation phase suggests normal market operations with steady unit prices and fluctuating monthly values.

Q2. Who are the main destination countries of Indonesia Baked Pastries (HS Code 1905) in 2025?

Malaysia dominates as the top destination, capturing 27.96% of Indonesia’s export value. The remaining exports are primarily concentrated within Asia, highlighting regional dependency.

Q3. Why does the unit price differ across destination countries of Indonesia Baked Pastries Export in 2025?

Prices range from $0.21 for basic rusks to over $16 for specialized items, reflecting a split between commodity-grade and high-value finished goods like premium wafers or sweet biscuits.

Q4. What should exporters in Indonesia focus on in the current Baked Pastries export market?

Exporters should prioritize securing long-term contracts with high-value repeat buyers (95.95% of trade value) and diversify destinations to mitigate overreliance on Malaysia.

Q5. What does this Indonesia Baked Pastries export pattern mean for buyers in partner countries?

Buyers in Malaysia and other Asian markets benefit from stable, quality-focused supply chains but face concentration risks if Indonesian exports are disrupted.

Q6. How is Baked Pastries typically used in this trade flow?

Baked Pastries are primarily exported as finished consumer goods, with waffles, wafers, and sweet biscuits dominating the trade, catering to retail and food service demand.