Brazil - Japan Trade 2024 Q4: Volatile Swings

Key Market Takeaways: Brazil - Japan Trade

The bilateral trade relationship between Brazil and Japan showed mixed performance with volatile swings in Q4 2024.

• Economic Pulse: Brazil held a narrow $40M trade surplus ($1.44B exports vs. $1.40B imports), but both flows faced erratic YoY declines, signaling demand instability.
• Exchange Structure: Brazil - Japan trade statistics reveal a resource-for-tech dynamic—Brazil supplies meat, ores, and agricultural goods (69% of exports), while Japan dominates with machinery and industrial equipment (26% of imports).
• Strategic Interdependence: Highly complementary but imbalanced—Japan retains the high-value position, while Brazil’s export concentration risks exposure to commodity volatility.

This bilateral trade snapshot is based on verified customs data from the yTrade database.

Brazil-Japan Trade Trend in Q4 2024

Brazil Export Performance: Shipments to Japan

• Total Volume: $1.44B in Q4 2024.
• Growth Trend & Context:
  • YoY declines persisted across all months, with December (-26.21%) showing the sharpest contraction.
  • No mitigating news to explain the downturn.
• Key Volatility: November saw the steepest MoM drop (-17.3%), signaling demand weakening early in the quarter.

Brazil Import Performance: Sourcing from Japan

• Total Volume: $1.40B in Q4 2024.
• Growth Trend & Context:
  • Mixed YoY performance: October (+37.0% YoY) surged, but November (-21.24% YoY) reversed gains.
  • No news to contextualize the swings.
• Key Volatility: October’s 20.01% MoM spike was followed by a -25.38% plunge in November, indicating erratic procurement.

Brazil - Japan Trade Balance & Market Dynamics

• Net Position: Brazil held a narrow $40M trade surplus with Japan.
• Relationship Status: Near-balanced trade, but reliance on volatile month-to-month flows risks exposure to sudden demand shifts.

Brazil Import Trend from Japan 2024 Q4 (Source: yTrade)**

Brazil Export Trend to Japan 2024 Q4 (Source: yTrade)**

Get Historical Brazil Japan Trade Records

Brazil-Japan Top Trading Products in Q4 2024

Brazil Export Profile: What Does Brazil Sell to Japan

• Top Commodity: Rank #1 Export is HS Code 02 (Meat and edible meat offal) with a 20.72% share.
• Demand Driver: Japan buys these primarily for its consumer market, indicating strong demand for Brazilian meat products.
• Concentration: The top 5 exports (HS Codes 02, 26, 09, 10, 76) account for 69.24% of total exports, showing moderate concentration in raw materials and agricultural goods.

Brazil Import Profile: What Does Brazil Buy from Japan

• Top Commodity: Rank #1 Import is HS Code 84 (Nuclear reactors, boilers, machinery) with a 26.22% share.
• Dependency Nature: Brazil relies heavily on Japan for high-tech machinery and industrial equipment, reflecting a critical technology dependency.

Brazil - Japan Trade Relationship Dynamics

• The Exchange Model: Resource-for-Tech Complementarity. Brazil exports raw materials (meat, ores, agricultural products) to Japan, while importing advanced machinery and industrial goods.
• Value Chain Position: Japan holds the higher value-add position, supplying complex manufactured goods, while Brazil provides commodities and intermediate products.

Import Analysis by Product: Japan to Brazil (Source: yTrade)

Export Analysis by Product: Brazil to Japan (Source: yTrade)

Check Detailed Brazil-Japan Trade HS Code Breakdown

Future Outlook & Strategic Recommendations

Forecast

The Brazil-Japan trade relationship faces near-term volatility, with Brazil’s export declines (-26.21% YoY in December 2024) signaling weakening demand for key commodities like meat and ores. Japan’s erratic import patterns—swinging from +37.0% to -21.24% YoY—suggest procurement instability, likely tied to inventory adjustments or supply chain bottlenecks. However, the structural resource-for-tech complementarity remains intact: Brazil’s reliance on Japanese machinery (26.22% of imports) and Japan’s dependence on Brazilian agricultural exports (20.72% share) create a foundation for recovery. Traders should brace for Q1 2025 consolidation, with potential stabilization by mid-year if commodity demand rebounds.

Strategic Moves

• Lock in Long-Term Meat Contracts: Brazilian meat exporters must secure multi-year agreements with Japanese buyers to mitigate price volatility, leveraging Japan’s consistent consumer demand for HS Code 02 products.
• Diversify Tech Suppliers: Brazilian importers should reduce dependency on Japanese machinery (HS Code 84) by exploring alternative markets like South Korea or Germany, ensuring supply chain resilience.
• Monitor Currency Fluctuations: With trade balances narrowing ($40M surplus), both sides must hedge against JPY-BRL swings, particularly for high-value machinery imports and bulk commodity shipments.

Frequently Asked Questions

How did Brazil - Japan trade perform in 2024 Q4?

Brazil's exports to Japan totaled $1.44B in Q4 2024, with YoY declines across all months. Imports from Japan were $1.40B, showing mixed YoY performance and erratic procurement patterns.

What are the top exports from Brazil to Japan?

The top exports include HS Code 02 (Meat and edible meat offal), HS Code 26 (Ores), HS Code 09 (Coffee and spices), HS Code 10 (Cereals), and HS Code 76 (Aluminum).

What does Brazil import from Japan?

Brazil primarily imports HS Code 84 (Nuclear reactors, boilers, machinery) from Japan, reflecting a critical dependency on high-tech industrial equipment.

What is the trade balance between Brazil and Japan?

Brazil held a narrow $40M trade surplus with Japan in Q4 2024, indicating near-balanced trade with volatile month-to-month flows.