Brazil - Japan Trade 2025 Q1: Deficit & Tech-Commodity Swap
Key Market Takeaways: Brazil - Japan Trade
The bilateral trade relationship between Brazil and Japan shows mixed growth with notable volatility in Q1 2025.
- Economic Pulse: Brazil posted a $360M trade deficit with Japan, importing $1.55B (up YoY) while exporting $1.19B (rebounding after a weak January).
- Exchange Structure: Brazil - Japan trade statistics reveal a resource-for-tech complementarity—Brazil supplies coffee, meat, and ores (56% of exports), while Japan dominates with machinery and high-tech goods (23% of imports).
- Strategic Interdependence: Japan holds the higher value-add position, reflecting Brazil’s reliance on Japanese industrial inputs and Japan’s demand for Brazilian commodities.
This bilateral trade snapshot is based on verified customs data from the yTrade database.
Brazil-Japan Trade Trend in Q1 2025
Brazil Export Performance: Shipments to Japan
- Total Volume: $1.19B in Q1 2025.
- Growth Trend & Context:
- Mixed YoY performance: January saw a sharp decline (-36.52%), but February and March rebounded with +33.33% and +14.18% growth, respectively.
- No clear external driver (no relevant news).
- Key Volatility: March posted the strongest MoM surge (+23.31%), while January had the steepest drop (-19.1%).
Brazil Import Performance: Sourcing from Japan
- Total Volume: $1.55B in Q1 2025.
- Growth Trend & Context:
- Robust YoY growth in February (+41.93%) and steady expansion in January (+13.11%) and March (+15.5%).
- Key Volatility: February’s imports dipped MoM (-7.11%) after a strong January (+20.91%).
Brazil - Japan Trade Balance & Market Dynamics
- Net Position: Brazil ran a trade deficit of $360M (Imports > Exports).
- Relationship Status: Brazil remains a net importer from Japan, with imports outpacing exports by 30% in Q1.
Brazil Import Trend from Japan 2025 Q1 (Source: yTrade)**
| Month | Value | MoM | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jan | 540.70M | 20.91% | 13.11% |
| Feb | 502.27M | -7.11% | 41.93% |
| Mar | 504.34M | 0.41% | 15.5% |
| Total | 1.55B | - | - |
Brazil Export Trend to Japan 2025 Q1 (Source: yTrade)**
| Month | Value | MoM | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jan | 359.18M | -19.1% | -36.52% |
| Feb | 370.10M | 3.04% | 33.33% |
| Mar | 456.38M | 23.31% | 14.18% |
| Total | 1.19B | - | - |
Get Historical Brazil Japan Trade Records
Brazil-Japan Top Trading Products in Q1 2025
Brazil Export Profile: What Does Brazil Sell to Japan
- Top Commodity: Rank #1 export is HS 09 (Coffee, tea, and spices) at 21.50% of total exports to Japan.
- Demand Driver: Japan imports these primarily for consumer market consumption, reflecting strong demand for Brazilian agricultural products.
- Concentration: The top 3 exports (HS 09, 02, 26) account for 56% of total exports, indicating moderate concentration in agricultural and mineral commodities.
Brazil Import Profile: What Does Brazil Buy from Japan
- Top Commodity: Rank #1 import is HS 84 (Nuclear reactors, boilers, machinery) at 22.83% of total imports from Japan.
- Dependency Nature: Brazil relies heavily on Japanese high-tech machinery and equipment, highlighting a critical technology dependency for industrial and manufacturing sectors.
Brazil - Japan Trade Relationship Dynamics
- The Exchange Model: Resource-for-Tech Complementarity. Brazil exports raw materials (coffee, meat, ores) to Japan, while importing advanced machinery and pharmaceuticals.
- Value Chain Position: Japan holds the higher value-add position, supplying complex manufactured goods, while Brazil provides commodities with lower value-addition.
Import Analysis by Product: Japan to Brazil (Source: yTrade)
| HS Code | Value | Percent |
|---|---|---|
| 84 | 353.21M | 22.83% |
| 87 | 351.30M | 22.70% |
| 85 | 216.78M | 14.01% |
| 90 | 136.45M | 8.82% |
| 30 | 88.65M | 5.73% |
| 29 | 72.75M | 4.70% |
| 73 | 59.28M | 3.83% |
| 72 | 48.86M | 3.16% |
| 40 | 39.80M | 2.57% |
| 39 | 35.90M | 2.32% |
Export Analysis by Product: Brazil to Japan (Source: yTrade)
| HS Code | Value | Percent |
|---|---|---|
| 09 | 254.95M | 21.50% |
| 02 | 254.71M | 21.48% |
| 26 | 154.32M | 13.02% |
| 76 | 111.45M | 9.40% |
| 72 | 80.48M | 6.79% |
| 12 | 41.71M | 3.52% |
| 23 | 39.25M | 3.31% |
| 47 | 35.17M | 2.97% |
| 20 | 32.51M | 2.74% |
| 28 | 28.22M | 2.38% |
Check Detailed Brazil-Japan Trade HS Code Breakdown
Future Outlook & Strategic Recommendations
Forecast for Brazil-Japan Trade
Brazil’s trade with Japan is expected to stabilize in Q2 2025, with exports likely to maintain moderate growth driven by resilient demand for agricultural commodities (HS 09, 02). However, the persistent trade deficit signals a need for Brazil to diversify its export basket beyond raw materials. Japan’s steady demand for high-tech machinery (HS 84) will keep imports elevated, reinforcing the resource-for-tech exchange model. Volatility in monthly trade flows suggests traders should prepare for short-term fluctuations, particularly in commodity pricing.
Strategic Moves for Traders & Policymakers
- Expand High-Value Agri-Exports: Brazilian exporters should prioritize value-added agricultural products (e.g., processed coffee, specialty meats) to reduce reliance on bulk commodities and improve margins.
- Diversify Tech Suppliers: Brazilian manufacturers must explore alternative suppliers for machinery (HS 84) to mitigate over-reliance on Japanese imports and negotiate better terms.
- Lock in Long-Term Contracts: Given Japan’s steady import demand, Brazilian coffee and mineral exporters should secure multi-year agreements to stabilize revenue streams amid price volatility.
Proactive adjustments will be critical to narrowing the trade deficit and strengthening Brazil’s position in this complementary relationship.
Frequently Asked Questions
How did Brazil - Japan trade perform in 2025 Q1?
Brazil's exports to Japan totaled $1.19B, with mixed YoY growth, while imports from Japan reached $1.55B, showing robust YoY expansion.
What are the top exports from Brazil to Japan?
The top exports are HS 09 (Coffee, tea, and spices), HS 02 (Meat), and HS 26 (Ores), accounting for 56% of total exports.
What does Brazil import from Japan?
The top import is HS 84 (Nuclear reactors, boilers, machinery), representing 22.83% of total imports, highlighting Brazil's reliance on Japanese high-tech machinery.
What is the trade balance between Brazil and Japan?
Brazil recorded a trade deficit of $360M with Japan in Q1 2025, with imports outpacing exports by 30%.
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