Brazil - Japan Trade 2023 Q4: Surplus & Volatility

Key Market Takeaways: Brazil - Japan Trade

The bilateral trade relationship between Brazil and Japan showed growth with notable volatility in Q4 2023.

• Brazil posted a $320M surplus, exporting $1.66B in goods (mixed YoY performance) while importing $1.34B (modest declines).
• Brazil - Japan trade statistics reveal a resource-for-tech exchange: cereals, ores, and meat flow to Japan, while machinery and vehicles dominate imports.
• Highly complementary economies, with Japan holding the higher value-add position in manufactured goods and Brazil supplying critical raw materials.

This bilateral trade snapshot is based on verified customs data from the yTrade database.

Brazil-Japan Trade Trend in Q4 2023

Brazil Export Performance: Shipments to Japan

• Total Volume: Brazil exported $1.66B worth of goods to Japan in Q4 2023.
• Growth Trend & Context:
  • Exports showed mixed YoY performance: a sharp 34.6% decline in October, followed by a milder 2.57% drop in November, before rebounding with a 7.55% increase in December.
• Key Volatility: December saw the highest monthly export value ($601.69M) and a notable 16.6% MoM surge, offsetting earlier declines.

Brazil Import Performance: Sourcing from Japan

• Total Volume: Brazil imported $1.34B worth of goods from Japan in Q4 2023.
• Growth Trend & Context:
  • Imports dipped 4.68% YoY in October but rebounded with 12.36% growth in November, ending the quarter with a slight 3.19% YoY contraction in December.
• Key Volatility: November recorded the highest monthly import value ($516.75M) and a sharp 29.8% MoM jump, while December saw a 17.85% MoM drop.

Brazil - Japan Trade Balance & Market Dynamics

• Net Position: Brazil posted a $320M trade surplus with Japan in Q4 2023 (Exports: $1.66B > Imports: $1.34B).
• Relationship Status: Brazil maintained its net exporter role, though both sides saw volatile monthly trade flows without clear seasonal patterns.

Brazil Import Trend from Japan 2023 Q4 (Source: yTrade)**

Brazil Export Trend to Japan 2023 Q4 (Source: yTrade)**

Get Historical Brazil Japan Trade Records

Brazil-Japan Top Trading Products in Q4 2023

Brazil Export Profile: What Does Brazil Sell to Japan

• Top Commodity: Cereals (HS Code 10) dominate exports, accounting for 25.25% of total value.
• Demand Driver: Japan relies on Brazil for raw materials like cereals (HS 10), ores (HS 26), and meat (HS 02), indicating industrial and food processing needs.
• Concentration: The top 3 exports (cereals, ores, meat) make up 60.4% of total exports, showing moderate concentration.

Brazil Import Profile: What Does Brazil Buy from Japan

• Top Commodity: Machinery (HS Code 84) leads imports with a 32.71% share, followed by vehicles (HS 87) at 21.55%.
• Dependency Nature: Brazil imports high-tech machinery and transport equipment, reflecting critical technology dependency for industrial and infrastructure development.

Brazil - Japan Trade Relationship Dynamics

• The Exchange Model: Resource-for-Tech Complementarity—Brazil supplies raw materials (cereals, ores) while Japan provides machinery and vehicles.
• Value Chain Position: Japan holds the higher value-add position, exporting complex manufactured goods, while Brazil’s exports are primarily low-value commodities.

Import Analysis by Product: Japan to Brazil (Source: yTrade)

Export Analysis by Product: Brazil to Japan (Source: yTrade)

Check Detailed Brazil-Japan Trade HS Code Breakdown

Future Outlook & Strategic Recommendations

Forecast

The Brazil-Japan trade relationship is poised for moderate growth in 2024, driven by Japan’s steady demand for Brazilian commodities and Brazil’s reliance on Japanese high-tech machinery. While Q4 2023 showed volatility, the rebound in December exports and Japan’s structural need for raw materials (cereals, ores, meat) suggest resilience. However, exporters should anticipate price fluctuations in key commodities, and importers must monitor Japan’s supply chain stability for machinery and vehicles. The Brazil-Japan trade forecast remains cautiously optimistic, with a potential 5-7% annual increase in bilateral volume if current trends hold.

Strategic Moves

• Lock in Long-Term Commodity Contracts: Brazilian cereal and ore exporters should secure multi-year agreements with Japanese buyers to stabilize revenue amid volatile global prices.
• Diversify Import Sources for Critical Machinery: Brazilian manufacturers must reduce dependency on Japanese machinery by exploring alternative suppliers in South Korea or Germany to mitigate supply chain risks.
• Invest in Value-Added Processing: Brazil should prioritize upgrading its meat and ore processing capabilities to capture higher margins before export, reducing reliance on raw commodity sales.

Frequently Asked Questions

How did Brazil - Japan trade perform in 2023 Q4?

Brazil exported $1.66B to Japan and imported $1.34B, with mixed YoY growth—exports rebounded in December (+7.55%), while imports ended the quarter with a slight 3.19% contraction.

What are the top exports from Brazil to Japan?

Brazil’s top exports to Japan are cereals (HS 10), ores (HS 26), and meat (HS 02), accounting for 60.4% of total export value.

What does Brazil import from Japan?

Brazil primarily imports machinery (HS 84, 32.71%) and vehicles (HS 87, 21.55%) from Japan, reflecting a reliance on high-tech industrial equipment.

What is the trade balance between Brazil and Japan?

Brazil posted a $320M trade surplus with Japan in Q4 2023, maintaining its net exporter role despite volatile monthly trade flows.