Brazil - Japan Trade 2023 Q3: $580M Surplus

Key Market Takeaways: Brazil - Japan Trade

The bilateral trade relationship between Brazil and Japan reflects a clear net exporter role for Brazil, despite mixed growth trends in Q3 2023.

• Economic Pulse: Brazil holds a $580M trade surplus with Japan ($1.87B exports vs. $1.29B imports), though imports from Japan declined sharply YoY (-14.75% to -19.26%).
• Exchange Structure: Brazil - Japan trade statistics reveal a resource-for-tech complementarity—Brazil supplies agricultural/mineral commodities (59% of exports) while importing Japanese machinery and industrial equipment (23% of imports).
• Strategic Interdependence: The partnership is highly complementary, with Japan occupying the higher value-add position in manufactured goods, while Brazil anchors raw material supply chains.

This bilateral trade snapshot is based on verified customs data from the yTrade database.

Brazil-Japan Trade Trend in Q3 2023

Brazil Export Performance: Shipments to Japan

• Total Volume: $1.87B in Q3 2023.
• Growth Trend & Context:
  • Mixed YoY performance: July (-1.5%), August (-16.63%), September (+1.4%).
  • September’s 10.59% MoM rebound offset August’s -2.41% dip.
• Key Volatility: July saw a sharp 37.21% MoM surge, likely due to quarterly shipment timing.

Brazil Import Performance: Sourcing from Japan

• Total Volume: $1.29B in Q3 2023.
• Growth Trend & Context:
  • Consistent YoY declines: July (-14.75%), August (-16.55%), September (-19.26%).
  • August’s 6.02% MoM rise failed to reverse the broader downtrend.
• Key Volatility: July recorded the lowest monthly value ($415.62M) and steepest MoM drop (-11.69%).

Brazil - Japan Trade Balance & Market Dynamics

• Net Position: Brazil holds a $580M trade surplus with Japan (Exports: $1.87B > Imports: $1.29B).
• Relationship Status: Brazil maintains a clear net exporter role, though imports from Japan contracted sharply YoY.

Brazil Import Trend from Japan 2023 Q3 (Source: yTrade)**

Brazil Export Trend to Japan 2023 Q3 (Source: yTrade)**

Get Historical Brazil Japan Trade Records

Brazil-Japan Top Trading Products in Q3 2023

Brazil Export Profile: What Does Brazil Sell to Japan

• Top Commodity: Rank #1 export is HS Code 10 (Cereals, likely soybeans or corn) with 27.26% share.
• Demand Driver: Japan buys these for industrial processing (animal feed, food production).
• Concentration: Top 3 exports (HS 10, 26, 02) account for 59% of total exports, showing moderate concentration in raw materials.

Brazil Import Profile: What Does Brazil Buy from Japan

• Top Commodity: Rank #1 import is HS Code 84 (Machinery/industrial equipment) with 23.09% share.
• Dependency Nature: Reflects critical technology dependency (machinery, vehicles, electronics dominate imports).

Brazil - Japan Trade Relationship Dynamics

• The Exchange Model: Resource-for-Tech Complementarity—Brazil supplies agricultural/mineral resources (HS 10, 26, 02) in exchange for Japanese machinery/tech (HS 84, 87, 85).
• Value Chain Position: Japan holds the higher value-add position, exporting complex manufactured goods, while Brazil provides low-margin commodities.

Import Analysis by Product: Japan to Brazil (Source: yTrade)

Export Analysis by Product: Brazil to Japan (Source: yTrade)

Check Detailed Brazil-Japan Trade HS Code Breakdown

Future Outlook & Strategic Recommendations

Forecast for Brazil-Japan Trade

Brazil’s trade surplus with Japan is likely to hold steady in Q4 2023, driven by resilient demand for agricultural commodities (HS 10, 26) despite Japan’s weakening imports of Brazilian goods. However, the persistent YoY decline in Japan’s machinery exports (HS 84) signals a potential slowdown in Brazil’s industrial input sourcing, which could tighten margins for Brazilian manufacturers. Traders should anticipate moderate volatility in Q1 2024, with Brazil’s export growth hinging on Japan’s feed and food processing needs. The resource-for-tech exchange model will remain dominant, but Brazil must address its overreliance on low-margin raw materials to sustain long-term gains.

Strategic Moves for Traders & Policymakers

• Lock in Commodity Contracts: Brazilian agribusinesses should secure multi-quarter sales agreements with Japanese buyers to stabilize revenue amid fluctuating shipment volumes. Focus on HS 10 (cereals) and HS 26 (ores) to capitalize on Japan’s inelastic demand.
• Diversify Tech Suppliers: Brazilian manufacturers dependent on Japanese machinery (HS 84) must scout alternative suppliers in South Korea or Germany to mitigate supply chain risks from Japan’s export slump.
• Push Value-Added Exports: Brazil’s trade negotiators should incentivize processed food exports (e.g., soybean oil, beef) to Japan, leveraging the existing commodity foothold to capture higher margins. Partner with Japanese food processors to co-develop premium products.

Frequently Asked Questions

How did Brazil - Japan trade perform in 2023 Q3?

Brazil exported $1.87B to Japan (mixed YoY growth) and imported $1.29B (consistent YoY declines), maintaining a $580M trade surplus.

What are the top exports from Brazil to Japan?

Brazil’s top exports to Japan are cereals (HS Code 10), minerals (HS 26), and meat (HS 02), accounting for 59% of total exports.

What does Brazil import from Japan?

Brazil primarily imports machinery (HS Code 84), vehicles, and electronics from Japan, reflecting a dependency on industrial technology.

What is the trade balance between Brazil and Japan?

Brazil holds a $580M trade surplus with Japan, driven by higher exports of raw materials and declining imports of Japanese goods.