Brazil - Japan Trade 2023 Q1: $410M Surplus

Key Market Takeaways: Brazil - Japan Trade

The bilateral trade relationship between Brazil and Japan shows growth with high volatility in Q1 2023.

• Brazil holds a $410M trade surplus, with exports ($1.74B) outpacing imports ($1.33B), despite uneven monthly swings in both flows.
• Trade statistics reveal a resource-for-tech exchange: Brazil supplies cereals, ores, and meat (59% of exports), while Japan dominates with vehicles and machinery (44% of imports).
• Strategic complementarity drives the partnership, with Brazil’s raw materials fueling Japan’s industry, and Japanese tech supporting Brazil’s modernization.

This bilateral trade snapshot is based on verified customs data from the yTrade database.

Brazil-Japan Trade Trend in Q1 2023

Brazil Export Performance: Shipments to Japan

• Total Volume: $1.74B in Q1 2023.
• Growth Trend & Context:
  • YoY growth surged in March (+97.34%), offsetting a moderate February (+17.11%). No specific trade news explains the volatility.
  • Key Volatility: March saw a 57.36% MoM spike, while February dropped -34.63% MoM.

Brazil Import Performance: Sourcing from Japan

• Total Volume: $1.33B in Q1 2023.
• Growth Trend & Context:
  • YoY growth was mixed, with January (+14.46%) and March (+9.65%) gains countered by February’s -18.36% decline.
  • Key Volatility: February imports fell -24.07% MoM, while March rebounded +33.06% MoM.

Brazil - Japan Trade Balance & Market Dynamics

• Net Position: Brazil held a trade surplus of $410M (Exports: $1.74B > Imports: $1.33B).
• Relationship Status: Brazil maintains a net exporter role, with exports to Japan outpacing imports by 31%. Volatility in both flows suggests uneven demand or supply chain adjustments.

Brazil Import Trend from Japan 2023 Q1 (Source: yTrade)**

Brazil Export Trend to Japan 2023 Q1 (Source: yTrade)**

Get Historical Brazil Japan Trade Records

Brazil-Japan Top Trading Products in Q1 2023

Brazil Export Profile: What Does Brazil Sell to Japan

• Top Commodity: Cereals (HS Code 10) dominate exports, accounting for 29.50% of total value.
• Demand Driver: Japan relies on Brazil for raw materials (cereals, ores, meat) to fuel its industrial and food processing sectors.
• Concentration: The top 3 exports (cereals, ores, meat) make up 59.48% of trade, indicating moderate concentration.

Brazil Import Profile: What Does Brazil Buy from Japan

• Top Commodity: Vehicles (HS Code 87) lead imports at 22.28%, followed closely by machinery (HS Code 84) at 22.23%.
• Dependency Nature: Brazil imports critical high-tech machinery and transport equipment, reflecting a technology dependency for industrial modernization.

Brazil - Japan Trade Relationship Dynamics

• The Exchange Model: Resource-for-Tech Complementarity—Brazil supplies agricultural and mineral resources (HS 10, 26, 02) in exchange for Japanese machinery and manufactured goods (HS 87, 84, 85).
• Value Chain Position: Japan holds the higher value-add position, exporting complex machinery (HS 84-90) versus Brazil’s raw material exports (HS 10, 26, 02).

Import Analysis by Product: Japan to Brazil (Source: yTrade)

Export Analysis by Product: Brazil to Japan (Source: yTrade)

Check Detailed Brazil-Japan Trade HS Code Breakdown

Future Outlook & Strategic Recommendations

Forecast

Brazil’s trade surplus with Japan is likely to hold steady in Q2 2023, driven by sustained demand for Brazilian cereals and ores. However, the extreme volatility in monthly export and import flows signals potential supply chain disruptions or uneven demand spikes, requiring close monitoring. Japan’s reliance on Brazilian raw materials and Brazil’s dependence on Japanese high-tech machinery reinforce a stable but asymmetric exchange. Traders should expect moderate growth with heightened short-term fluctuations, particularly in agricultural shipments ahead of Japan’s peak processing seasons.

Strategic Moves

• Lock in Long-Term Cereal Contracts: With cereals dominating exports (29.5% of total), Brazilian agribusinesses should secure multi-quarter deals to stabilize revenue amid volatile monthly swings.
• Diversify Tech Imports: Brazil’s heavy reliance on Japanese machinery (HS 84-85) exposes it to supply chain risks. Importers must scout alternative suppliers in South Korea or Germany to mitigate dependency.
• Monitor Logistics Costs: The sharp MoM swings in trade volumes suggest inefficiencies in shipping or customs. Exporters should negotiate flexible freight agreements to handle sudden demand surges or drops.

Frequently Asked Questions

How did Brazil - Japan trade perform in 2023 Q1?

Brazil's exports to Japan totaled $1.74B, with volatile YoY growth (e.g., +97.34% in March). Imports from Japan reached $1.33B, showing mixed YoY performance (-18.36% in February, +9.65% in March).

What are the top exports from Brazil to Japan?

Cereals (HS Code 10) dominate Brazil's exports to Japan, followed by ores and meat. These top 3 products account for 59.48% of total trade value.

What does Brazil import from Japan?

Brazil primarily imports vehicles (HS Code 87) and machinery (HS Code 84) from Japan, which together represent nearly 44.51% of total import value.

What is the trade balance between Brazil and Japan?

Brazil recorded a trade surplus of $410M with Japan in Q1 2023, as exports ($1.74B) exceeded imports ($1.33B) by 31%.