Argentina - Paraguay Trade 2024 Q4: Widening Deficit
Key Market Takeaways: Argentina - Paraguay Trade
The bilateral trade relationship between Argentina and Paraguay is marked by a widening trade deficit and volatile growth in 2024 Q4.
- Economic Pulse: Argentina posted a $131M trade deficit with Paraguay, driven by a 35% drop in imports (to $502M) despite strong export growth (+15-32% YoY).
- Exchange Structure: Argentina - Paraguay trade statistics reveal a resource-for-food complementarity—Argentina supplies mineral fuels (35% of exports) while Paraguay dominates with oilseeds (77% of imports).
- Strategic Interdependence: The partnership remains lopsided, with Argentina dependent on Paraguayan agricultural inputs and Paraguay reliant on Argentine energy.
This bilateral trade snapshot is based on verified customs data from the yTrade database.
Argentina-Paraguay Trade Trend in Q4 2024
Argentina Export Performance: Shipments to Paraguay
- Total Volume: $371.06M in Q4 2024.
- Growth Trend & Context:
- Exports showed mixed YoY growth: +15.56% in October, +25.62% in November, and +31.78% in December.
- No significant policy or trade news to contextualize the surge.
- Key Volatility: November saw the highest MoM growth (+2.41%), while December dipped slightly (-3.92%).
Argentina Import Performance: Sourcing from Paraguay
- Total Volume: $502.09M in Q4 2024.
- Growth Trend & Context:
- Sharp YoY declines: -31.47% in November and -72.65% in December, offsetting October’s +7.24% rise.
- No relevant news to explain the contraction.
- Key Volatility: December recorded the steepest MoM drop (-51.09%) and lowest absolute value ($87.76M).
Argentina - Paraguay Trade Balance & Market Dynamics
- Net Position: Argentina posted a trade deficit of $131.03M (Imports exceeded exports).
- Relationship Status: Heavy reliance on Paraguayan imports, with exports failing to offset the gap despite strong YoY growth.
Argentina Import Trend from Paraguay 2024 Q4 (Source: yTrade)**
| Month | Value | MoM | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct | 234.90M | -4.0% | 7.24% |
| Nov | 179.44M | -23.61% | -31.47% |
| Dec | 87.76M | -51.09% | -72.65% |
| Total | 502.09M | - | - |
Argentina Export Trend to Paraguay 2024 Q4 (Source: yTrade)**
| Month | Value | MoM | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct | 123.35M | -4.59% | 15.56% |
| Nov | 126.33M | 2.41% | 25.62% |
| Dec | 121.38M | -3.92% | 31.78% |
| Total | 371.06M | - | - |
Get Historical Argentina Paraguay Trade Records
Argentina-Paraguay Top Trading Products in Q4 2024
Argentina Export Profile: What Does Argentina Sell to Paraguay
- Top Commodity: Rank #1 export is Mineral fuels (HS 27) at 34.75% of total exports to Paraguay.
- Demand Driver: Paraguay relies on Argentina for energy supplies, likely for industrial and domestic consumption.
- Concentration: The trade is moderately concentrated, with the top two categories (HS 27 and HS 99) accounting for 61.57% of exports.
Argentina Import Profile: What Does Argentina Buy from Paraguay
- Top Commodity: Rank #1 import is Oilseeds (HS 12) at 76.88% of total imports from Paraguay.
- Dependency Nature: Argentina has a food security dependency on Paraguay for agricultural commodities, particularly oilseeds.
Argentina - Paraguay Trade Relationship Dynamics
- The Exchange Model: Resource-for-Food Complementarity—Argentina supplies energy (HS 27) while Paraguay provides agricultural goods (HS 12).
- Value Chain Position: Argentina holds a higher value-add position, exporting processed or industrial goods (e.g., pharmaceuticals, vehicles) while importing raw agricultural products.
Import Analysis by Product: Paraguay to Argentina (Source: yTrade)
| HS Code | Value | Percent |
|---|---|---|
| 12 | 386.03M | 76.88% |
| 27 | 32.56M | 6.48% |
| 85 | 17.08M | 3.40% |
| 08 | 11.86M | 2.36% |
| 83 | 11.65M | 2.32% |
| 15 | 4.68M | 0.93% |
| 48 | 3.79M | 0.75% |
| 76 | 3.61M | 0.72% |
| 19 | 3.19M | 0.64% |
| 02 | 3.10M | 0.62% |
Export Analysis by Product: Argentina to Paraguay (Source: yTrade)
| HS Code | Value | Percent |
|---|---|---|
| 27 | 128.93M | 34.75% |
| 99 | 99.53M | 26.82% |
| 87 | 23.04M | 6.21% |
| 30 | 16.05M | 4.33% |
| 33 | 10.05M | 2.71% |
| 21 | 8.83M | 2.38% |
| 19 | 8.64M | 2.33% |
| 39 | 8.48M | 2.29% |
| 96 | 8.43M | 2.27% |
| 38 | 7.48M | 2.02% |
Check Detailed Argentina-Paraguay Trade HS Code Breakdown
Future Outlook & Strategic Recommendations
Forecast
Argentina’s trade with Paraguay is expected to remain volatile in the near term, driven by conflicting trends. While exports—particularly mineral fuels (HS 27)—show strong YoY growth, Paraguay’s sharp decline in agricultural shipments (HS 12) suggests supply-side disruptions or shifting demand. The persistent trade deficit underscores Argentina’s reliance on Paraguayan oilseeds, making it vulnerable to sudden import contractions. Traders should prepare for uneven performance until structural imbalances stabilize, with energy exports likely to remain the primary growth driver.
Strategic Moves
- Diversify Import Sources: Argentina’s heavy dependence on Paraguayan oilseeds (HS 12) exposes it to supply shocks. Buyers should secure alternative suppliers in Brazil or Bolivia to mitigate risk.
- Lock in Energy Export Contracts: With Paraguay’s steady demand for Argentine mineral fuels (HS 27), exporters should negotiate long-term supply agreements to capitalize on sustained growth.
- Monitor Agricultural Policy Shifts: The steep drop in Paraguayan agricultural exports may signal regulatory changes or crop failures. Importers must track policy updates and adjust procurement strategies accordingly.
Frequently Asked Questions
How did Argentina - Paraguay trade perform in 2024 Q4?
Argentina's exports to Paraguay grew YoY (+15.56% to +31.78%), totaling $371.06M, while imports from Paraguay fell sharply (-31.47% to -72.65%), totaling $502.09M.
What are the top exports from Argentina to Paraguay?
Argentina's top exports to Paraguay are Mineral fuels (HS 27) and HS 99, accounting for 61.57% of total exports.
What does Argentina import from Paraguay?
Argentina primarily imports Oilseeds (HS 12) from Paraguay, making up 76.88% of total imports.
What is the trade balance between Argentina and Paraguay?
Argentina recorded a trade deficit of $131.03M with Paraguay in Q4 2024, as imports exceeded exports.
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