Argentina - Paraguay Trade 2025 Q1: Deficit Widens

Key Market Takeaways: Argentina - Paraguay Trade

The bilateral trade relationship between Argentina and Paraguay contracted sharply in Q1 2025, with Argentina deepening its trade deficit.

• Economic Pulse: Argentina posted a $396.93M trade deficit with Paraguay, as imports ($668.28M) outpaced exports ($271.35M) by 2.5x. Both flows saw steep YoY declines, signaling weakening demand.
• Exchange Structure: Argentina - Paraguay trade statistics reveal asymmetrical complementarity: Argentina supplies processed goods (e.g., pharmaceuticals, perfumes) while Paraguay dominates with bulk agricultural exports (84.7% soybeans).
• Strategic Interdependence: The partnership hinges on resource-for-resource exchange, with Argentina dependent on Paraguayan agri-raw materials and Paraguay reliant on Argentine value-added products.

This bilateral trade snapshot is based on verified customs data from the yTrade database.

Argentina-Paraguay Trade Trend in Q1 2025

Argentina Export Performance: Shipments to Paraguay

• Total Volume: $271.35M in Q1 2025.
• Growth Trend & Context:
  • YoY declines persisted across all months (-3.25% in Jan, -10.39% in Feb, -24.22% in Mar).
  • No mitigating news to explain the contraction.
• Key Volatility: March saw a slight MoM rebound (+5.97%) after consecutive drops.

Argentina Import Performance: Sourcing from Paraguay

• Total Volume: $668.28M in Q1 2025.
• Growth Trend & Context:
  • Sharp YoY drops in January (-44.82%) and March (-37.26%), with February nearly flat (-1.01%).
  • No news to contextualize the slump.
• Key Volatility: February spiked 428.55% MoM, but this followed an unusually weak January (-27.87% MoM).

Argentina - Paraguay Trade Balance & Market Dynamics

• Net Position: Trade deficit of $396.93M (Imports exceeded exports).
• Relationship Status: Argentina remains heavily dependent on Paraguayan imports, with Q1 imports 2.5x exports.

Argentina Import Trend from Paraguay 2025 Q1 (Source: yTrade)**

Argentina Export Trend to Paraguay 2025 Q1 (Source: yTrade)**

Get Historical Argentina Paraguay Trade Records

Argentina-Paraguay Top Trading Products in Q1 2025

Argentina Export Profile: What Does Argentina Sell to Paraguay

• Top Commodity: HS Code 99 (31.70% share). This is likely "Special Classification Provisions" (miscellaneous goods), indicating a diverse export mix.
• Demand Driver: Paraguay imports a mix of consumer goods (HS 21, 19, 96) and industrial inputs (HS 27, 30, 38), suggesting both market consumption and processing needs.
• Concentration: No single category dominates; the top export (HS 99) holds 31.7%, reflecting moderate diversification.

Argentina Import Profile: What Does Argentina Buy from Paraguay

• Top Commodity: HS Code 12 (84.70% share). This is "Oil Seeds and Oleaginous Fruits" (e.g., soybeans), a key agricultural export for Paraguay.
• Dependency Nature: Argentina heavily relies on Paraguay for agricultural raw materials, indicating a food security dependency for processing or re-export.

Argentina - Paraguay Trade Relationship Dynamics

• The Exchange Model: Resource-for-Resource Complementarity. Argentina supplies Paraguay with processed/consumer goods (HS 99, 30, 21) and energy (HS 27), while Paraguay provides agricultural raw materials (HS 12).
• Value Chain Position: Argentina holds higher value-add, exporting processed goods (e.g., pharmaceuticals HS 30, perfumes HS 33) versus Paraguay’s bulk agricultural exports. Trade is asymmetrical but mutually reinforcing.

Import Analysis by Product: Paraguay to Argentina (Source: yTrade)

Export Analysis by Product: Argentina to Paraguay (Source: yTrade)

Check Detailed Argentina-Paraguay Trade HS Code Breakdown

Future Outlook & Strategic Recommendations

Forecast for Argentina-Paraguay Trade

The Argentina-Paraguay trade relationship faces near-term headwinds, with persistent YoY declines in both exports and imports signaling a broader slowdown. The Q1 2025 trade deficit of $396.93M underscores Argentina’s heavy reliance on Paraguayan agricultural inputs (HS 12), while Paraguay’s demand for Argentine consumer and industrial goods remains volatile. Without mitigating factors, the current contraction may extend into Q2, particularly if global commodity prices fluctuate or domestic consumption weakens. However, the complementary nature of the trade—Argentina’s processed goods for Paraguay’s raw materials—provides a foundation for recovery if strategic adjustments are made.

Strategic Moves for Traders & Policymakers

• Diversify Export Markets: Argentine exporters must reduce dependency on Paraguayan demand by targeting other regional markets (e.g., Brazil, Chile) for processed goods (HS 30, 21) to offset declining sales.
• Lock in Agricultural Supply Contracts: Argentine importers should secure long-term agreements for Paraguayan soybeans (HS 12) to stabilize input costs and mitigate price volatility in the face of erratic shipment volumes.
• Invest in Trade Facilitation: Both governments should streamline cross-border logistics, particularly for industrial inputs (HS 27, 38), to reduce delays and costs that may be exacerbating the downturn.

Frequently Asked Questions

How did Argentina - Paraguay trade perform in 2025 Q1?

Argentina's exports to Paraguay totaled $271.35M, declining YoY, while imports from Paraguay reached $668.28M, also showing sharp YoY drops.

What are the top exports from Argentina to Paraguay?

The top export was HS Code 99 ("Special Classification Provisions"), accounting for 31.70% of shipments, reflecting a diverse mix of goods.

What does Argentina import from Paraguay?

Argentina primarily imports HS Code 12 ("Oil Seeds and Oleaginous Fruits," e.g., soybeans), making up 84.70% of imports from Paraguay.

What is the trade balance between Argentina and Paraguay?

Argentina recorded a trade deficit of $396.93M, with imports 2.5x higher than exports, indicating heavy reliance on Paraguayan agricultural goods.