Argentina - Paraguay Trade 2024 Q3: Volatile Deficit Dynamics

Key Market Takeaways: Argentina - Paraguay Trade

The bilateral trade relationship between Argentina and Paraguay reflects a growing but volatile dynamic in Q3 2024.

• Economic Pulse: Argentina posted a $519.01M trade deficit with Paraguay ($383.95M exports vs. $902.96M imports), driven by erratic import swings (July surge, August plunge). Exports showed steady YoY growth.
• Exchange Structure: Argentina - Paraguay trade statistics reveal a resource-for-resource complementarity: energy (HS 27, 29.44% of exports) flows to Paraguay, while agricultural inputs (HS 12, 92.48% of imports) dominate Argentina’s purchases.
• Strategic Interdependence: Paraguay’s heavy reliance on Argentine energy and Argentina’s dependence on Paraguayan agricultural raw materials signal tightly linked supply chains.

This bilateral trade snapshot is based on verified customs data from the yTrade database.

Argentina-Paraguay Trade Trend in Q3 2024

Argentina Export Performance: Shipments to Paraguay

• Total Volume: $383.95M in Q3 2024.
• Growth Trend & Context:
  • YoY growth remained positive across all months (Jul: +17.73%, Aug: +11.12%, Sep: +15.43%), indicating sustained demand.
• Key Volatility: July saw the highest MoM jump (+17.91%), while August had a marginal dip (-0.4%).

Argentina Import Performance: Sourcing from Paraguay

• Total Volume: $902.96M in Q3 2024.
• Growth Trend & Context:
  • Volatile YoY trends: July surged (+38.35%), but August and September contracted (-32.47% and -1.84%, respectively).
• Key Volatility: July peaked at $411.08M (MoM +28.6%), followed by a sharp drop in August (-39.87%).

Argentina - Paraguay Trade Balance & Market Dynamics

• Net Position: Trade deficit of $519.01M (Imports exceeded exports).
• Relationship Status: Argentina remains heavily dependent on imports from Paraguay, despite stable export growth.

Argentina Import Trend from Paraguay 2024 Q3 (Source: yTrade)**

Argentina Export Trend to Paraguay 2024 Q3 (Source: yTrade)**

Get Historical Argentina Paraguay Trade Records

Argentina-Paraguay Top Trading Products in Q3 2024

Argentina Export Profile: What Does Argentina Sell to Paraguay

• Top Commodity: HS Code 27 (Mineral fuels, oils, distillation products) dominates with 29.44% share.
• Demand Driver: Paraguay relies on Argentina for energy supplies, likely for industrial and transportation needs.
• Concentration: The top 3 exports (HS 27, 99, 38) account for 62.91%, indicating moderate concentration.

Argentina Import Profile: What Does Argentina Buy from Paraguay

• Top Commodity: HS Code 12 (Oil seeds, grains, seeds, fruits) makes up 92.48% of imports.
• Dependency Nature: Argentina heavily depends on Paraguay for agricultural raw materials, suggesting food or feedstock security reliance.

Argentina - Paraguay Trade Relationship Dynamics

• The Exchange Model: Resource-for-Resource Complementarity. Argentina supplies energy (HS 27) while Paraguay provides agricultural inputs (HS 12).
• Value Chain Position: Argentina holds a higher value-add position (energy exports), while Paraguay’s exports are primary commodities.

Import Analysis by Product: Paraguay to Argentina (Source: yTrade)

Export Analysis by Product: Argentina to Paraguay (Source: yTrade)

Check Detailed Argentina-Paraguay Trade HS Code Breakdown

Future Outlook & Strategic Recommendations

Forecast

The Argentina - Paraguay trade forecast for Q4 2024 and beyond points to continued growth in energy exports (HS 27) from Argentina, driven by Paraguay’s steady industrial and transportation demand. However, the trade deficit will likely persist due to Argentina’s heavy reliance on Paraguayan agricultural inputs (HS 12), which face seasonal volatility. If Paraguay’s crop yields stabilize, import costs may ease, but exporters should prepare for potential price fluctuations in key commodities. Long-term, this resource-for-resource exchange model will deepen, but Argentina must address its import dependency to rebalance the trade relationship.

Strategic Moves

• Lock in Energy Supply Contracts: Argentine exporters of mineral fuels (HS 27) should secure long-term agreements with Paraguayan buyers to capitalize on stable demand and mitigate future price swings.
• Diversify Agricultural Sourcing: Argentine importers must reduce reliance on Paraguayan oil seeds (HS 12) by exploring alternative suppliers in Brazil or Bolivia to hedge against supply shocks.
• Invest in Export Promotion: The Argentine government should incentivize secondary exports (e.g., HS 99 and 38) to Paraguay to reduce trade deficit risks and broaden the export base beyond energy.

Frequently Asked Questions

How did Argentina - Paraguay trade perform in 2024 Q3?

Argentina's exports to Paraguay grew YoY (+17.73% in July, +11.12% in August, +15.43% in September), totaling $383.95M, while imports from Paraguay were volatile, reaching $902.96M.

What are the top exports from Argentina to Paraguay?

The top exports are Mineral fuels, oils, and distillation products (HS Code 27), along with HS Codes 99 and 38, accounting for 62.91% of total exports.

What does Argentina import from Paraguay?

Argentina primarily imports Oil seeds, grains, seeds, and fruits (HS Code 12), making up 92.48% of total imports from Paraguay.

What is the trade balance between Argentina and Paraguay?

Argentina recorded a trade deficit of $519.01M in Q3 2024, as imports from Paraguay ($902.96M) significantly exceeded exports ($383.95M).