Argentina - Paraguay Trade 2024 Q2: Widening Deficit

Key Market Takeaways: Argentina - Paraguay Trade

The bilateral trade relationship between Argentina and Paraguay shows sustained demand but a widening deficit in Q2 2024.

• Deficit Deepens: Argentina posted a $660.92M trade deficit ($369.08M exports vs. $1.03B imports), with exports growing YoY but failing to offset Paraguay’s agricultural dominance.
• Resource-for-Food Exchange: Argentina - Paraguay trade statistics reveal a clear complementarity: mineral fuels (36.31% of exports) flow to Paraguay, while oil seeds (91.20% of imports) anchor Argentina’s food security needs.
• Asymmetric Dependency: Paraguay’s near-monopoly on critical agricultural imports underscores Argentina’s vulnerability in this lopsided partnership.

This bilateral trade snapshot is based on verified customs data from the yTrade database.

Argentina-Paraguay Trade Trend in Q2 2024

Argentina Export Performance: Shipments to Paraguay

• Total Volume: $369.08M in Q2 2024.
• Growth Trend & Context:
  • YoY growth remained positive across all months (Apr: +26.91%, May: +19.18%, Jun: +14.34%), signaling sustained demand despite June’s MoM drop.
  • No trade policy updates to contextualize trends.
• Key Volatility: June saw a sharp MoM decline (-21.81%), contrasting with May’s +12.98% surge.

Argentina Import Performance: Sourcing from Paraguay

• Total Volume: $1.03B in Q2 2024.
• Growth Trend & Context:
  • Mixed YoY performance: May imports surged (+23.45%), but April (-31.57%) and June (-4.1%) contracted.
  • No news to explain fluctuations.
• Key Volatility: April recorded the lowest value ($334.65M) and steepest MoM drop (-22.35%).

Argentina - Paraguay Trade Balance & Market Dynamics

• Net Position: Trade deficit of $660.92M (Exports: $369.08M vs. Imports: $1.03B).
• Relationship Status: Argentina remains heavily dependent on Paraguayan imports, with exports failing to offset the deficit.

Argentina Import Trend from Paraguay 2024 Q2 (Source: yTrade)**

Argentina Export Trend to Paraguay 2024 Q2 (Source: yTrade)**

Get Historical Argentina Paraguay Trade Records

Argentina-Paraguay Top Trading Products in Q2 2024

Argentina Export Profile: What Does Argentina Sell to Paraguay

• Top Commodity: Rank #1 export is HS Code 27 (Mineral fuels, oils, distillation products) at 36.31% of total exports.
• Demand Driver: Paraguay likely uses these for energy needs or industrial processing, given the dominance of mineral fuels.
• Concentration: The trade is moderately concentrated, with the top two exports (HS 27 and 99) accounting for 63.06% of total exports.

Argentina Import Profile: What Does Argentina Buy from Paraguay

• Top Commodity: Rank #1 import is HS Code 12 (Oil seeds, grains, seeds, fruits) at 91.20% of total imports.
• Dependency Nature: This reflects a food security dependency, as Paraguay supplies Argentina with critical agricultural commodities.

Argentina - Paraguay Trade Relationship Dynamics

• The Exchange Model: Resource-for-Food Complementarity. Argentina exports energy products (HS 27) to Paraguay, while importing agricultural goods (HS 12) in return.
• Value Chain Position: Argentina holds a higher value-add position, exporting processed or industrial goods (e.g., mineral fuels), while Paraguay supplies raw agricultural products.

Import Analysis by Product: Paraguay to Argentina (Source: yTrade)

Export Analysis by Product: Argentina to Paraguay (Source: yTrade)

Check Detailed Argentina-Paraguay Trade HS Code Breakdown

Future Outlook & Strategic Recommendations

Forecast

Argentina’s trade with Paraguay is expected to remain volatile in the near term, with the deficit likely persisting due to structural imbalances. While exports of mineral fuels (HS 27) will continue driving growth, the sharp MoM fluctuations in Q2 2024 suggest demand sensitivity to external factors—possibly energy price shifts or seasonal adjustments. Paraguay’s dominance in agricultural exports (HS 12) ensures Argentina’s food security dependency will endure, but traders should prepare for potential supply chain disruptions given April’s steep import drop. Without policy interventions, the Argentina - Paraguay trade deficit could widen further in Q3.

Strategic Moves

• Diversify Export Markets: Argentine exporters must reduce reliance on Paraguay by targeting other regional buyers for mineral fuels, mitigating risks from demand volatility.
• Lock in Agricultural Contracts: Importers should secure long-term agreements with Paraguayan suppliers of oil seeds and grains (HS 12) to stabilize prices and ensure consistent food supply.
• Monitor Energy Demand Closely: Traders in HS 27 must track Paraguay’s industrial activity and energy policies to anticipate sudden order changes, as seen in June’s export plunge.

Frequently Asked Questions

How did Argentina - Paraguay trade perform in 2024 Q2?

Argentina's exports to Paraguay totaled $369.08M with positive YoY growth, while imports from Paraguay reached $1.03B, showing mixed YoY performance.

What are the top exports from Argentina to Paraguay?

The top exports are Mineral fuels, oils, distillation products (HS Code 27), accounting for 36.31% of total exports.

What does Argentina import from Paraguay?

Argentina primarily imports Oil seeds, grains, seeds, fruits (HS Code 12), making up 91.20% of total imports.

What is the trade balance between Argentina and Paraguay?

Argentina recorded a trade deficit of $660.92M with Paraguay in Q2 2024, driven by higher imports than exports.