Argentina - Paraguay Trade 2023 Q3: Lopsided Resource Exchange

Key Market Takeaways: Argentina - Paraguay Trade

The bilateral trade relationship between Argentina and Paraguay is marked by a significant trade deficit and volatile growth trends in Q3 2023.

• Economic Pulse: Argentina posted a -$577.67M trade deficit with Paraguay, driven by heavy reliance on imports ($912.41M) that far outpaced exports ($334.74M). Growth was erratic, with sharp YoY swings in both directions.
• Exchange Structure: The trade is defined by resource-for-resource complementarity—Argentina supplies mineral fuels (27% of exports) while Paraguay dominates with oil seeds (82% of imports).
• Strategic Interdependence: Paraguay holds critical leverage as a supplier of agricultural inputs, while Argentina provides energy products, creating a lopsided but mutually dependent exchange.

This bilateral trade snapshot is based on verified customs data from the yTrade database.

Argentina-Paraguay Trade Trend in Q3 2023

Argentina Export Performance: Shipments to Paraguay

• Total Volume: $334.74M in Q3 2023.
• Growth Trend & Context:
  • YoY growth was mixed, with July showing a sharp decline (-50.43%) but rebounding in August (+19.78%) and September (+19.61%).
• Key Volatility: July saw the highest MoM jump (+14.51%), while September dipped slightly (-2.05%).

Argentina Import Performance: Sourcing from Paraguay

• Total Volume: $912.41M in Q3 2023.
• Growth Trend & Context:
  • YoY growth remained strong across all months, peaking in August (+138.48%).
• Key Volatility: August recorded the highest MoM surge (+23.19%), while September saw a sharp drop (-31.9%).

Argentina - Paraguay Trade Balance & Market Dynamics

• Net Position: Argentina ran a trade deficit of -$577.67M (Imports > Exports).
• Relationship Status: Heavy reliance on imports from Paraguay, outweighing export volumes significantly.

Argentina Import Trend from Paraguay 2023 Q3 (Source: yTrade)**

Argentina Export Trend to Paraguay 2023 Q3 (Source: yTrade)**

Get Historical Argentina Paraguay Trade Records

Argentina-Paraguay Top Trading Products in Q3 2023

Argentina Export Profile: What Does Argentina Sell to Paraguay

• Top Commodity: Rank #1 export is HS Code 27 (Mineral fuels, oils, distillation products) at 26.99% of total exports.
• Demand Driver: Paraguay likely uses these for industrial processing or energy needs.
• Concentration: The top two exports (HS 27 and 99) account for 53.22%, indicating moderate concentration.

Argentina Import Profile: What Does Argentina Buy from Paraguay

• Top Commodity: Rank #1 import is HS Code 12 (Oil seeds, oleaginous fruits, grains, seeds) at 81.58% of total imports.
• Dependency Nature: Reflects a food security dependency, as Paraguay supplies critical agricultural inputs.

Argentina - Paraguay Trade Relationship Dynamics

• The Exchange Model: Resource-for-Resource Complementarity. Argentina exports energy (HS 27) and imports agricultural goods (HS 12), suggesting a swap of raw materials.
• Value Chain Position: Argentina holds a slightly higher value-add position with processed fuels (HS 27) versus Paraguay’s bulk agricultural exports (HS 12).

Import Analysis by Product: Paraguay to Argentina (Source: yTrade)

Export Analysis by Product: Argentina to Paraguay (Source: yTrade)

Check Detailed Argentina-Paraguay Trade HS Code Breakdown

Future Outlook & Strategic Recommendations

Forecast

Argentina’s trade with Paraguay is expected to remain volatile but structurally resilient in the near term. The persistent deficit highlights Paraguay’s critical role as a supplier of agricultural inputs (HS 12), while Argentina’s exports of mineral fuels (HS 27) will likely stabilize as energy demand holds steady. However, the sharp MoM swings in imports—particularly the 31.9% September drop—suggest potential supply chain disruptions or pricing volatility. Traders should anticipate tighter margins in Q4 2023, with Paraguay’s dominance in oil seeds reinforcing Argentina’s food security dependency.

Strategic Moves

• Diversify Import Sources: Reduce reliance on Paraguayan agricultural goods by exploring alternative suppliers in Brazil or Bolivia to mitigate price shocks and supply bottlenecks.
• Lock in Fuel Export Contracts: Capitalize on Paraguay’s steady demand for mineral fuels (HS 27) by securing long-term supply agreements with Paraguayan industrial buyers to stabilize revenue streams.
• Monitor Trade Policy Shifts: Paraguay’s export-heavy focus on HS 12 leaves Argentina vulnerable to sudden tariff or quota changes. Proactively engage with trade authorities to preempt regulatory risks.

Frequently Asked Questions

How did Argentina - Paraguay trade perform in 2023 Q3?

Argentina's exports to Paraguay totaled $334.74M, with mixed YoY growth, while imports from Paraguay reached $912.41M, showing strong YoY growth.

What are the top exports from Argentina to Paraguay?

The top exports are Mineral fuels, oils, distillation products (HS Code 27) and other commodities, accounting for 53.22% of total exports.

What does Argentina import from Paraguay?

The top import is Oil seeds, oleaginous fruits, grains, seeds (HS Code 12), making up 81.58% of total imports.

What is the trade balance between Argentina and Paraguay?

Argentina recorded a trade deficit of -$577.67M with Paraguay in Q3 2023, driven by higher imports than exports.