Argentina - Paraguay Trade 2023 Q2: Growing Deficit & Dependence

Key Market Takeaways: Argentina - Paraguay Trade

The bilateral trade relationship between Argentina and Paraguay is marked by volatility and a growing deficit in Q2 2023.

• Economic Pulse: Argentina posted a $812.72M trade deficit with Paraguay, driven by $1.12B in imports (dominated by agricultural goods) versus $307.28M in exports.
• Exchange Structure: The trade is resource-for-food complementary—Argentina supplies energy (HS 27) and consumer goods, while Paraguay’s oilseeds (HS 12) account for 85.78% of Argentina’s imports.
• Strategic Interdependence: Heavy reliance on Paraguayan agricultural exports highlights Argentina’s food security dependency, while Paraguay benefits from Argentine energy and diversified consumer goods.

This bilateral trade snapshot is based on verified customs data from the yTrade database.

Argentina-Paraguay Trade Trend in Q2 2023

Argentina Export Performance: Shipments to Paraguay

• Total Volume: $307.28M in Q2 2023.
• Growth Trend & Context:
  • YoY declines in April (-23.89%) and June (-22.54%) offset a 27.36% rebound in May.
• Key Volatility: May saw a 20.31% MoM surge, while June dropped 18.5% MoM.

Argentina Import Performance: Sourcing from Paraguay

• Total Volume: $1.12B in Q2 2023.
• Growth Trend & Context:
  • Strong YoY growth in April (+109.98%) and June (+56.62%), though May slowed to +12.84%.
• Key Volatility: Sharp MoM drops in April (-36.93%) and May (-38.54%), with a partial recovery in June (+10.9%).

Argentina - Paraguay Trade Balance & Market Dynamics

• Net Position: Trade deficit of $812.72M (Imports $1.12B vs. Exports $307.28M).
• Relationship Status: Heavy reliance on Paraguayan imports, with exports failing to offset the imbalance.

Argentina Import Trend from Paraguay 2023 Q2 (Source: yTrade)**

Argentina Export Trend to Paraguay 2023 Q2 (Source: yTrade)**

Get Historical Argentina Paraguay Trade Records

Argentina-Paraguay Top Trading Products in Q2 2023

Argentina Export Profile: What Does Argentina Sell to Paraguay

• Top Commodity: HS Code 99 (39.85% share). Likely unclassified or special category goods, indicating a niche or mixed export basket.
• Demand Driver: Paraguay imports a mix of consumer goods (HS 19, 21, 33) and industrial inputs (HS 27, 38, 39), suggesting dual use for market consumption and processing.
• Concentration: Moderate—top export (HS 99) holds 39.85%, but energy (HS 27 at 23.48%) forms a secondary pillar.

Argentina Import Profile: What Does Argentina Buy from Paraguay

• Top Commodity: HS Code 12 (85.78% share). Primarily oilseeds (e.g., soybeans), reflecting Paraguay’s agricultural export strength.
• Dependency Nature: Food security dependency—Argentina relies heavily on Paraguay for bulk agricultural commodities.

Argentina - Paraguay Trade Relationship Dynamics

• The Exchange Model: Resource-for-Food Complementarity. Argentina supplies energy (HS 27) and consumer goods, while Paraguay dominates with agricultural exports (HS 12).
• Value Chain Position: Paraguay holds the raw material edge (HS 12), but Argentina’s diversified exports (including tech/consumer goods) suggest higher value-add in downstream sectors.

Import Analysis by Product: Paraguay to Argentina (Source: yTrade)

Export Analysis by Product: Argentina to Paraguay (Source: yTrade)

Check Detailed Argentina-Paraguay Trade HS Code Breakdown

Future Outlook & Strategic Recommendations

Forecast

Argentina’s trade deficit with Paraguay is likely to persist in Q3 2023, driven by continued high demand for Paraguayan agricultural commodities (HS 12) and volatile export performance. While energy exports (HS 27) remain a secondary pillar for Argentina, the lack of diversification in outbound shipments leaves the trade balance vulnerable to commodity price swings. Traders should anticipate further fluctuations, particularly if Paraguay’s soybean harvest remains strong, exacerbating Argentina’s import dependency. However, a rebound in consumer goods exports (HS 19, 21, 33) could partially offset the deficit if Argentine producers capitalize on Paraguayan demand.

Strategic Moves

• Diversify Export Offerings: Argentine exporters must reduce reliance on HS 99 (unclassified goods) by expanding into higher-value consumer and industrial products (HS 19, 21, 33) to capture more Paraguayan market share.
• Secure Long-Term Agricultural Contracts: Importers of Paraguayan soybeans (HS 12) should lock in fixed-price agreements to mitigate volatility and ensure stable food supply chains.
• Optimize Energy Trade Flows: Argentina should leverage its energy exports (HS 27) to Paraguay by negotiating preferential terms, ensuring consistent revenue streams despite broader trade imbalances.

Frequently Asked Questions

How did Argentina - Paraguay trade perform in 2023 Q2?

Argentina exported $307.28M to Paraguay, with mixed YoY growth, while imports surged to $1.12B, driven by strong YoY gains in April and June.

What are the top exports from Argentina to Paraguay?

The top export is HS Code 99 (unclassified/special goods, 39.85% share), followed by energy products (HS 27, 23.48%).

What does Argentina import from Paraguay?

Argentina primarily imports oilseeds like soybeans (HS Code 12, 85.78% share), reflecting Paraguay’s agricultural dominance.

What is the trade balance between Argentina and Paraguay?

Argentina recorded a trade deficit of $812.72M, driven by heavy reliance on Paraguayan agricultural imports.