Argentina - Paraguay Trade 2023 Q1: Surging Deficit & Resource Swap

Key Market Takeaways: Argentina - Paraguay Trade

The bilateral trade relationship between Argentina and Paraguay is marked by a growing trade deficit and volatile demand shifts in Q1 2023.

• Economic Pulse: Argentina posted a $806M trade deficit with Paraguay (Imports: $1.07B, Exports: $264M), driven by surging imports (+136% YoY in March) while exports only rebounded late in the quarter (+5% YoY).
• Exchange Structure: Argentina-Paraguay trade statistics reveal a resource-for-resource swap—Argentina supplies energy (HS 27) and consumer goods, while Paraguay dominates with agricultural bulk (HS 12, 81% of imports).
• Strategic Interdependence: Paraguay’s role as a critical supplier of raw materials (e.g., soybeans) highlights Argentina’s food/feedstock security dependency, despite exporting higher-value processed goods.

This bilateral trade snapshot is based on verified customs data from the yTrade database.

Argentina-Paraguay Trade Trend in Q1 2023

Argentina Export Performance: Shipments to Paraguay

• Total Volume: $263.97M in Q1 2023.
• Growth Trend & Context:
  • YoY growth turned positive in March (+5.32%), recovering from declines in January (-9.42%) and February (-6.42%).
  • No specific trade news to explain the rebound.
• Key Volatility: March saw the highest MoM surge (+25.56%), signaling accelerating demand.

Argentina Import Performance: Sourcing from Paraguay

• Total Volume: $1.07B in Q1 2023.
• Growth Trend & Context:
  • Exceptional YoY growth across all months (Jan: +184.54%, Feb: +89.63%, Mar: +136.44%), indicating a structural shift in sourcing.
• Key Volatility: Imports exploded in February (+244.37% MoM) and March (+234.45% MoM), suggesting stockpiling or new supply agreements.

Argentina - Paraguay Trade Balance & Market Dynamics

• Net Position: Trade deficit of $806.03M (Imports $1.07B vs. Exports $263.97M).
• Relationship Status: Heavy reliance on Paraguayan imports, with exports failing to keep pace despite March’s recovery.

Argentina Import Trend from Paraguay 2023 Q1 (Source: yTrade)**

Argentina Export Trend to Paraguay 2023 Q1 (Source: yTrade)**

Get Historical Argentina Paraguay Trade Records

Argentina-Paraguay Top Trading Products in Q1 2023

Argentina Export Profile: What Does Argentina Sell to Paraguay

• Top Commodity: HS Code 99 (31.21% share). Likely unclassified or special category goods, given the high share.
• Demand Driver: Paraguay imports a mix of consumer goods (HS 30, 33, 21) and industrial inputs (HS 27, 87). Suggests dual demand for both local consumption and processing.
• Concentration: Moderate. Top 2 exports (HS 99 and 27) combine for 60.07% of total exports, indicating reliance on a few key categories.

Argentina Import Profile: What Does Argentina Buy from Paraguay

• Top Commodity: HS Code 12 (81.09% share). Likely oilseeds (e.g., soybeans), given Paraguay’s agricultural export focus.
• Dependency Nature: Overwhelming agricultural reliance. Argentina sources critical raw materials (HS 12, 23, 08) from Paraguay, indicating food/feedstock security dependency.

Argentina - Paraguay Trade Relationship Dynamics

• The Exchange Model: Resource-for-Resource Complementarity. Argentina exports energy (HS 27) and consumer goods, while importing agricultural bulk (HS 12) from Paraguay. Classic bilateral swap of raw materials.
• Value Chain Position: Paraguay holds the lower-value position (bulk agri-exports), while Argentina’s exports include higher-value processed goods (HS 30, 33).

Import Analysis by Product: Paraguay to Argentina (Source: yTrade)

Export Analysis by Product: Argentina to Paraguay (Source: yTrade)

Check Detailed Argentina-Paraguay Trade HS Code Breakdown

Future Outlook & Strategic Recommendations

Forecast

Argentina’s trade deficit with Paraguay is likely to widen further in Q2 2023, driven by sustained demand for Paraguayan agricultural commodities (HS 12) and sluggish recovery in Argentine exports. The March rebound in shipments to Paraguay (+5.32% YoY) signals potential stabilization, but structural reliance on unclassified goods (HS 99) leaves exports vulnerable to volatility. Meanwhile, Paraguay’s explosive import growth (+136.44% YoY in March) suggests stockpiling or new supply agreements—factors that may sustain elevated import volumes. Traders should prepare for continued asymmetry in this resource-for-resource exchange.

Strategic Moves

• Diversify Export Mix: Argentine exporters must reduce dependence on HS 99 by targeting Paraguayan demand for consumer goods (HS 30, 33) and industrial inputs (HS 27, 87). Product development in these categories can rebalance the trade deficit.
• Lock in Agri-Supply Contracts: With Paraguay dominating Argentina’s oilseed imports (HS 12), buyers should secure long-term agreements to mitigate price volatility and ensure feedstock security.
• Monitor Logistics Bottlenecks: The MoM import surges (+244.37% in February) indicate potential supply chain strain. Importers should audit logistics partners and explore alternative routes to avoid disruptions.

Frequently Asked Questions

How did Argentina - Paraguay trade perform in 2023 Q1?

Argentina exported $263.97M to Paraguay, with a YoY rebound in March (+5.32%). Imports surged to $1.07B, driven by exceptional YoY growth (Jan: +184.54%, Feb: +89.63%, Mar: +136.44%).

What are the top exports from Argentina to Paraguay?

Argentina’s top exports to Paraguay include unclassified/special category goods (HS 99, 31.21% share) and industrial inputs like energy (HS 27), reflecting a mix of consumer goods and raw materials.

What does Argentina import from Paraguay?

Argentina primarily imports oilseeds (likely soybeans, HS 12, 81.09% share) from Paraguay, indicating heavy reliance on agricultural raw materials for food/feedstock security.

What is the trade balance between Argentina and Paraguay?

Argentina recorded a trade deficit of $806.03M with Paraguay in Q1 2023, driven by soaring imports ($1.07B) outpacing exports ($263.97M).