Argentina - Paraguay Trade 2023 Q4: Deficit Surge

Key Market Takeaways: Argentina - Paraguay Trade

The bilateral trade relationship between Argentina and Paraguay is marked by Argentina's growing trade deficit and volatile import surges in Q4 2023.

• Economic Pulse: Argentina posted a $502.38M trade deficit with Paraguay, driven by explosive import growth (+88.73% YoY in October, peaking at +254.71% in December) while exports declined (-9.36% YoY in December).
• Exchange Structure: Argentina - Paraguay trade statistics reveal resource-for-resource complementarity: Argentina supplies fuels (HS 27) and vehicles (HS 87) but relies heavily on Paraguayan oilseeds (HS 12, 77.50% of imports) and crude fuels, highlighting food and energy dependencies.
• Strategic Interdependence: The partnership is asymmetrically interdependent, with Paraguay anchoring Argentina’s agricultural and energy supply chains, while Argentina holds a slight value-add edge in manufactured exports.

This bilateral trade snapshot is based on verified customs data from the yTrade database.

Argentina-Paraguay Trade Trend in Q4 2023

Argentina Export Performance: Shipments to Paraguay

• Total Volume: $299.41M in Q4 2023.
• Growth Trend & Context:
  • YoY decline in October (-0.57%) and December (-9.36%), with a modest November uptick (+8.33%).
  • No significant policy shifts or external events to explain the mixed performance.
• Key Volatility: Steady MoM contraction, peaking at -8.41% in December.

Argentina Import Performance: Sourcing from Paraguay

• Total Volume: $801.79M in Q4 2023.
• Growth Trend & Context:
  • Explosive YoY growth: +88.73% (Oct), +181.77% (Nov), +254.71% (Dec).
  • No news to contextualize the surge.
• Key Volatility: December saw the highest imports ($320.91M) and MoM growth (+22.56%).

Argentina - Paraguay Trade Balance & Market Dynamics

• Net Position: Trade deficit of $502.38M (Imports exceed exports).
• Relationship Status: Argentina heavily reliant on Paraguayan imports, with exports dwarfed by inbound shipments.

Argentina Import Trend from Paraguay 2023 Q4 (Source: yTrade)**

Argentina Export Trend to Paraguay 2023 Q4 (Source: yTrade)**

Get Historical Argentina Paraguay Trade Records

Argentina-Paraguay Top Trading Products in Q4 2023

Argentina Export Profile: What Does Argentina Sell to Paraguay

• Top Commodity: HS Code 99 (32.13% share). This is likely a residual category for unclassified goods, indicating a diverse export mix.
• Demand Driver: Paraguay imports a mix of industrial inputs (HS 27: fuels, HS 38: chemicals) and consumer goods (HS 33: perfumes, HS 21: food preparations), suggesting both industrial and retail demand.
• Concentration: No single category dominates. The top 3 exports (HS 99, 27, 87) account for 63.75% of total exports, showing moderate diversification.

Argentina Import Profile: What Does Argentina Buy from Paraguay

• Top Commodity: HS Code 12 (77.50% share). This covers oilseeds (e.g., soybeans), reflecting Paraguay’s role as a key agricultural supplier.
• Dependency Nature: Argentina heavily relies on Paraguayan oilseeds (HS 12) and fuels (HS 27), indicating food security and energy dependency.

Argentina - Paraguay Trade Relationship Dynamics

• The Exchange Model: Resource-for-Resource Complementarity. Argentina supplies fuels (HS 27) and manufactured goods (HS 87: vehicles) while importing agricultural commodities (HS 12) and energy (HS 27) from Paraguay.
• Value Chain Position: Argentina holds a slightly higher value-add position, exporting processed goods (e.g., chemicals, vehicles) versus Paraguay’s raw materials (oilseeds, crude fuels).

Import Analysis by Product: Paraguay to Argentina (Source: yTrade)

Export Analysis by Product: Argentina to Paraguay (Source: yTrade)

Check Detailed Argentina-Paraguay Trade HS Code Breakdown

Future Outlook & Strategic Recommendations

Forecast

Argentina’s trade deficit with Paraguay is likely to widen in early 2024, driven by sustained demand for Paraguayan oilseeds (HS 12) and fuels (HS 27). The explosive YoY import growth (+88.73% to +254.71%) signals deepening dependency, while Argentina’s stagnant exports (-0.57% to -9.36% YoY) lack catalysts for recovery. Without policy intervention, this imbalance will strain Argentina’s trade position, though Paraguay’s reliance on Argentine industrial goods (HS 87, 38) offers leverage for renegotiation. Traders should prepare for volatility in commodity-driven exchanges.

Strategic Moves

• Diversify Import Sources: Argentina must reduce overreliance on Paraguayan oilseeds by securing alternative suppliers (e.g., Brazil, Bolivia) to mitigate food security risks.
• Boost High-Value Exports: Focus on promoting Argentine manufactured goods (HS 87: vehicles, HS 38: chemicals) through targeted trade incentives to counter the deficit.
• Lock In Energy Contracts: With Paraguay supplying critical fuels (HS 27), Argentine buyers should negotiate long-term agreements to stabilize input costs amid fluctuating demand.

Frequently Asked Questions

How did Argentina - Paraguay trade perform in 2023 Q4?

Argentina's exports to Paraguay totaled $299.41M, showing mixed YoY trends, while imports surged to $801.79M, driven by explosive growth in oilseeds and fuels.

What are the top exports from Argentina to Paraguay?

Argentina's top exports include unclassified goods (HS 99), fuels (HS 27), and vehicles (HS 87), reflecting a diverse mix of industrial and consumer products.

What does Argentina import from Paraguay?

Argentina primarily imports oilseeds (HS 12) and fuels (HS 27) from Paraguay, highlighting strong reliance on agricultural and energy commodities.

What is the trade balance between Argentina and Paraguay?

Argentina recorded a trade deficit of $502.38M with Paraguay in Q4 2023, as imports significantly outpaced exports.