Uzbekistan - Mainland China Trade 2024 Q3: Deficit Widens

Key Market Takeaways: Uzbekistan - Mainland China Trade

The bilateral trade relationship between Uzbekistan and Mainland China remains heavily skewed toward imports with no rebalancing signs in Q3 2024.

• Deficit-Driven Trade: Uzbekistan posted a $2.29B trade deficit (imports: $2.59B, exports: $302.93M), with exports covering just 11.7% of import costs. YoY declines persisted for both flows.
• Resource-for-Tech Exchange: Uzbekistan - Mainland China trade statistics reveal a lopsided commodity-for-manufactures dynamic: copper (57.66% of exports) flows east, while electrical machinery (24.32% of imports) dominates inbound shipments.
• Asymmetric Interdependence: Mainland China holds the high-value position, supplying critical tech inputs, while Uzbekistan remains a raw material supplier—a classic extractive-trade dependency.

This bilateral trade snapshot is based on verified customs data from the yTrade database.

Uzbekistan-Mainland China Trade Trend in Q3 2024

Uzbekistan Export Performance: Shipments to Mainland China

• Total Volume: $302.93M in Q3 2024.
• Growth Trend & Context:
  • YoY decline persisted across all months, with July (-65.92%) and September (-31.89%) showing severe contractions.
  • August’s -20.94% YoY was the least negative, but no recovery signal.
• Key Volatility: September saw a sharp MoM drop (-21.19%), erasing gains from August’s 11.15% MoM rise.

Uzbekistan Import Performance: Sourcing from Mainland China

• Total Volume: $2.59B in Q3 2024.
• Growth Trend & Context:
  • YoY declines eased slightly from July (-31.32%) to August (-14.87%), but September (-18.04%) reversed the trend.
• Key Volatility: August posted the highest monthly value ($966.32M, +25.27% MoM), while September fell -11.4% MoM.

Uzbekistan - Mainland China Trade Balance & Market Dynamics

• Net Position: Trade Deficit of $2.29B (Imports $2.59B vs. Exports $302.93M).
• Relationship Status: Heavy import dependence, with exports covering just 11.7% of import costs. No rebalancing signs in Q3.

Uzbekistan Import Trend from Mainland China 2024 Q3 (Source: yTrade)**

Uzbekistan Export Trend to Mainland China 2024 Q3 (Source: yTrade)**

Get Historical Uzbekistan Mainland China Trade Records

Uzbekistan-Mainland China Top Trading Products in Q3 2024

Uzbekistan Export Profile: What Does Uzbekistan Sell to Mainland China

• Top Commodity: Copper (HS 74) dominates with 57.66% of total exports.
• Demand Driver: Mainland China uses these raw materials for industrial processing, particularly in electronics and construction sectors.
• Concentration: Trade is highly concentrated, with copper alone accounting for over half of exports.

Uzbekistan Import Profile: What Does Uzbekistan Buy from Mainland China

• Top Commodity: Electrical machinery (HS 85) leads with 24.32% of imports.
• Dependency Nature: Critical technology dependency, as these imports likely power Uzbekistan's industrial and consumer electronics sectors.

Uzbekistan - Mainland China Trade Relationship Dynamics

• The Exchange Model: Resource-for-Tech Complementarity. Uzbekistan exports raw materials (copper, cotton) and imports high-tech machinery and equipment.
• Value Chain Position: Mainland China holds the higher value-add position, supplying advanced manufactured goods while Uzbekistan provides primary commodities.

Import Analysis by Product: Mainland China to Uzbekistan (Source: yTrade)

Export Analysis by Product: Uzbekistan to Mainland China (Source: yTrade)

Check Detailed Uzbekistan-Mainland China Trade HS Code Breakdown

Future Outlook & Strategic Recommendations

Forecast

The Uzbekistan-Mainland China trade relationship is likely to remain volatile in the near term, with persistent deficits and export contraction signaling structural imbalances. Given Mainland China’s dominance in high-value imports and Uzbekistan’s reliance on raw material exports, the trade deficit may widen further unless export diversification accelerates. Copper demand will remain a key driver, but without new commodity streams or value-added processing, Uzbekistan’s export growth will struggle to offset import dependency. Traders should brace for continued YoY declines in Q4 2024, with potential stabilization only if global commodity prices rebound.

Strategic Moves

• Diversify Export Basket: Uzbekistan must reduce over-reliance on copper by incentivizing secondary exports (e.g., processed cotton, rare earths) to capture higher margins and mitigate price volatility.
• Negotiate Tech Transfer Agreements: Offset import dependency by securing joint ventures with Chinese firms to localize production of critical machinery (HS 85) and reduce long-term import costs.
• Lock In Commodity Contracts: Exporters should hedge against price swings by negotiating fixed-price, long-term copper supply deals with Chinese industrial buyers to stabilize revenue streams.

Frequently Asked Questions

How did Uzbekistan - Mainland China trade perform in 2024 Q3?

Uzbekistan recorded a trade deficit of $2.29B in Q3 2024, with exports ($302.93M) declining YoY and imports ($2.59B) showing eased but persistent YoY drops.

What are the top exports from Uzbekistan to Mainland China?

Copper (HS 74) dominates Uzbekistan’s exports to Mainland China, accounting for 57.66% of total shipments, reflecting heavy reliance on raw material trade.

What does Uzbekistan import from Mainland China?

Electrical machinery (HS 85) is the top import, making up 24.32% of purchases, highlighting Uzbekistan’s dependency on Mainland China’s high-tech goods.

What is the trade balance between Uzbekistan and Mainland China?

Uzbekistan faces a trade deficit ($2.29B), with exports covering only 11.7% of import costs, showing no rebalancing in Q3 2024.