Uzbekistan - Mainland China Trade 2024 Q2: Deficit-Driven Exchange

Key Market Takeaways: Uzbekistan - Mainland China Trade

The bilateral trade relationship between Uzbekistan and Mainland China remains heavily imbalanced, with Uzbekistan running a significant deficit in Q2 2024.

• Deficit-Driven Trade: Uzbekistan posted a $2.04B trade deficit, with imports ($2.32B) dwarfing exports ($284.86M). Export volumes declined YoY, while imports showed mixed growth.
• Resource-for-Tech Exchange: Uzbekistan - Mainland China trade statistics reveal a lopsided structure: raw materials (copper, cotton) make up 76% of Uzbek exports, while machinery and electronics dominate imports.
• Asymmetric Interdependence: Mainland China holds the high-value position, supplying critical tech inputs, while Uzbekistan remains a commodity supplier—a classic dependency dynamic.

This bilateral trade snapshot is based on verified customs data from the yTrade database.

Uzbekistan-Mainland China Trade Trend in Q2 2024

Uzbekistan Export Performance: Shipments to Mainland China

• Total Volume: $284.86M in Q2 2024.
• Growth Trend & Context:
  • YoY decline persisted across all months, with April (-50.16%) showing the sharpest contraction.
  • No trade policy shifts or disruptions were reported to explain the slump.
• Key Volatility: May saw a 20.61% MoM surge, but June reversed with a -6.3% drop.

Uzbekistan Import Performance: Sourcing from Mainland China

• Total Volume: $2.32B in Q2 2024.
• Growth Trend & Context:
  • Mixed YoY performance: April (+0.55%) and June (+1.16%) edged up, while May (-7.19%) dragged.
• Key Volatility: May’s imports spiked 24.05% MoM, but June plummeted -28.52%.

Uzbekistan - Mainland China Trade Balance & Market Dynamics

• Net Position: $2.04B deficit (Imports exceeded exports by this margin).
• Relationship Status: Heavy reliance on Chinese imports, with exports failing to offset the imbalance.

Uzbekistan Import Trend from Mainland China 2024 Q2 (Source: yTrade)**

Uzbekistan Export Trend to Mainland China 2024 Q2 (Source: yTrade)**

Get Historical Uzbekistan Mainland China Trade Records

Uzbekistan-Mainland China Top Trading Products in Q2 2024

Uzbekistan Export Profile: What Does Uzbekistan Sell to Mainland China

• Top Commodity: Copper (HS 74) dominates exports, accounting for 48.17% of total value.
• Demand Driver: Mainland China imports raw materials like copper and cotton (HS 52, 28% share) for industrial processing, reflecting its manufacturing-heavy economy.
• Concentration: Trade is highly concentrated, with copper and cotton combined making up 76.17% of exports.

Uzbekistan Import Profile: What Does Uzbekistan Buy from Mainland China

• Top Commodity: Machinery (HS 84) leads imports at 25.22%, followed closely by electrical equipment (HS 85, 24.37%).
• Dependency Nature: Uzbekistan relies on Mainland China for critical technology, particularly in machinery and electronics, indicating a tech-driven import strategy.

Uzbekistan - Mainland China Trade Relationship Dynamics

• The Exchange Model: Resource-for-Tech Complementarity—Uzbekistan supplies raw materials (copper, cotton) while importing high-value machinery and electronics.
• Value Chain Position: Mainland China holds the higher value-add position, exporting complex manufactured goods, while Uzbekistan remains a supplier of primary commodities.

Import Analysis by Product: Mainland China to Uzbekistan (Source: yTrade)

Export Analysis by Product: Uzbekistan to Mainland China (Source: yTrade)

Check Detailed Uzbekistan-Mainland China Trade HS Code Breakdown

Future Outlook & Strategic Recommendations

Forecast

The Uzbekistan-Mainland China trade relationship is expected to remain volatile in the near term, with exports likely to face continued pressure due to weak demand for raw materials. The persistent trade deficit underscores Uzbekistan’s heavy reliance on Chinese machinery and electronics, a trend that will persist unless export diversification accelerates. However, if global copper and cotton prices stabilize, Q3 2024 could see a modest recovery in Uzbek shipments. Traders should prepare for uneven demand, with Mainland China’s industrial cycles dictating short-term export performance.

Strategic Moves

• Diversify Export Basket: Uzbek exporters must reduce dependence on copper and cotton by targeting niche manufacturing or processed goods to capture higher margins in the Chinese market.
• Lock in Tech Imports Strategically: Given Uzbekistan’s reliance on Chinese machinery, importers should negotiate long-term supply agreements to mitigate price volatility and ensure stable access to critical components.
• Monitor Chinese Industrial Policy Shifts: Traders must track China’s domestic production targets for copper and cotton, as sudden policy changes could disrupt Uzbek export volumes without warning.

Proactive adaptation, not passive reliance, will define success in this unbalanced trade dynamic.

Frequently Asked Questions

How did Uzbekistan - Mainland China trade perform in 2024 Q2?

Uzbekistan exported $284.86M to Mainland China, showing a YoY decline, while imports totaled $2.32B with mixed YoY growth.

What are the top exports from Uzbekistan to Mainland China?

Copper (HS 74) and cotton (HS 52) dominate, accounting for 76.17% of Uzbekistan’s exports to Mainland China.

What does Uzbekistan import from Mainland China?

Machinery (HS 84) and electrical equipment (HS 85) lead imports, making up nearly half of Uzbekistan’s purchases from Mainland China.

What is the trade balance between Uzbekistan and Mainland China?

Uzbekistan recorded a $2.04B trade deficit with Mainland China, reflecting heavy reliance on Chinese imports.