Uzbekistan - Kazakhstan Trade 2024 Q2: Deficit & Volatility

Key Market Takeaways: Uzbekistan - Kazakhstan Trade

The bilateral trade relationship between Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan shows mixed growth with high volatility in Q2 2024.

• Trade Deficit & Volatility: Uzbekistan posted a $347.52M deficit, with imports ($635.38M) dwarfing exports ($287.86M). Sharp YoY drops in April-May were followed by uneven rebounds.
• Resource-for-Resource Exchange: Uzbekistan - Kazakhstan trade statistics reveal a complementary structure: vehicles and agri-products (HS 87, 07, 08) flow north, while grains (HS 10) and metals (HS 72, 76) dominate southbound shipments.
• Asymmetric Dependency: Kazakhstan holds leverage as a supplier of critical inputs (ores, cereals), while Uzbekistan’s exports cater to Kazakh consumer demand, lacking high-value diversification.

This bilateral trade snapshot is based on verified customs data from the yTrade database.

Uzbekistan-Kazakhstan Trade Trend in Q2 2024

Uzbekistan Export Performance: Shipments to Kazakhstan

• Total Volume: $287.86M in Q2 2024.
• Growth Trend & Context:
  • Mixed YoY performance: April (-32.09%) and May (-39.48%) saw sharp declines, but June rebounded (+5.68%).
  • No specific trade news to explain the volatility.
• Key Volatility: June recorded the highest MoM growth (+37.54%), while April had the steepest drop (-30.58%).

Uzbekistan Import Performance: Sourcing from Kazakhstan

• Total Volume: $635.38M in Q2 2024.
• Growth Trend & Context:
  • YoY declines in April (-27.62%) and May (-7.48%), but June rebounded (+12.1%).
• Key Volatility: May saw the highest MoM surge (+29.46%), while June had the steepest MoM drop (-23.76%).

Uzbekistan - Kazakhstan Trade Balance & Market Dynamics

• Net Position: Trade deficit of $347.52M (Imports exceed exports).
• Relationship Status: Uzbekistan remains heavily dependent on imports from Kazakhstan, with no significant rebalancing in Q2.

Uzbekistan Import Trend from Kazakhstan 2024 Q2 (Source: yTrade)**

Uzbekistan Export Trend to Kazakhstan 2024 Q2 (Source: yTrade)**

Get Historical Uzbekistan Kazakhstan Trade Records

Uzbekistan-Kazakhstan Top Trading Products in Q2 2024

Uzbekistan Export Profile: What Does Uzbekistan Sell to Kazakhstan

• Top Commodity: Vehicles (HS 87) dominate exports, accounting for 15.17% of total value.
• Demand Driver: Kazakhstan’s consumer market absorbs Uzbek vehicles, indicating demand for affordable transport.
• Concentration: No single category exceeds 50%, but the top 3 (HS 87, 07, 08) collectively make up 42.26%, showing moderate concentration in agricultural and transport goods.

Uzbekistan Import Profile: What Does Uzbekistan Buy from Kazakhstan

• Top Commodity: Cereals (HS 10) lead imports at 19.60%, reflecting reliance on Kazakh grain supplies.
• Dependency Nature: Heavy imports of ores (HS 26, 9.21%) and metals (HS 72, 18.22%) signal industrial raw material dependency, while cereals point to food security needs.

Uzbekistan - Kazakhstan Trade Relationship Dynamics

• The Exchange Model: Resource-for-Resource Complementarity. Uzbekistan supplies agricultural products (HS 07, 08) and vehicles, while Kazakhstan provides grains, ores, and metals.
• Value Chain Position: Kazakhstan holds a slight edge in value-add, exporting processed metals (HS 72, 76) versus Uzbekistan’s lower-complexity agricultural and light industrial goods.

Import Analysis by Product: Kazakhstan to Uzbekistan (Source: yTrade)

Export Analysis by Product: Uzbekistan to Kazakhstan (Source: yTrade)

Check Detailed Uzbekistan-Kazakhstan Trade HS Code Breakdown

Future Outlook & Strategic Recommendations

Forecast

Uzbekistan’s trade with Kazakhstan is expected to remain volatile in the near term, with the deficit likely persisting due to structural dependencies on Kazakh grains, ores, and metals. The rebound in June exports suggests potential resilience in vehicle and agricultural shipments, but inconsistent demand and supply chain disruptions could dampen sustained growth. Traders should prepare for price fluctuations in key commodities, particularly cereals (HS 10) and metals (HS 72), as Kazakhstan’s export dominance gives it pricing leverage. Without policy interventions or diversification efforts, Uzbekistan’s trade deficit with Kazakhstan may widen further in Q3 2024.

Strategic Moves

• Diversify Import Sources: Reduce reliance on Kazakh cereals and metals by exploring alternative suppliers in Russia or Turkey to mitigate price volatility and supply risks.
• Boost Export Competitiveness: Invest in value-added processing for agricultural goods (HS 07, 08) to command higher prices in Kazakhstan’s consumer market, countering the raw-material-heavy import profile.
• Lock in Long-Term Contracts: Secure fixed-price agreements for critical Kazakh imports (e.g., ores, grains) to hedge against sudden cost spikes, while negotiating reciprocal trade terms for Uzbek vehicle exports.

Frequently Asked Questions

How did Uzbekistan - Kazakhstan trade perform in 2024 Q2?

Uzbekistan's exports to Kazakhstan totaled $287.86M, with mixed YoY growth (sharp declines in April-May, rebound in June). Imports from Kazakhstan reached $635.38M, also showing a June recovery after earlier declines.

What are the top exports from Uzbekistan to Kazakhstan?

The top exports are Vehicles (HS 87), along with agricultural products like Edible vegetables (HS 07) and Edible fruits (HS 08), collectively making up 42.26% of total exports.

What does Uzbekistan import from Kazakhstan?

Uzbekistan primarily imports Cereals (HS 10), Metals (HS 72), and Ores (HS 26), reflecting reliance on Kazakh grain supplies and industrial raw materials.

What is the trade balance between Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan?

Uzbekistan recorded a trade deficit of $347.52M in Q2 2024, as imports from Kazakhstan significantly exceeded exports. No clear rebalancing trend was observed.