Uzbekistan - Kazakhstan Trade 2024 Q1: Widening Deficit

Key Market Takeaways: Uzbekistan - Kazakhstan Trade

The bilateral trade relationship between Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan shows mixed growth with a widening deficit in Q1 2024.

• Economic Pulse: Uzbekistan posted a $378.1M trade deficit with Kazakhstan, driven by $630.13M in imports (consistently declining YoY) versus $252.03M in exports (volatile YoY performance).
• Exchange Structure: Uzbekistan - Kazakhstan trade statistics reveal resource-for-tech complementarity—Uzbekistan exports vehicles (31.07% of exports) while relying on Kazakhstan for cereals (25.66% of imports).
• Strategic Interdependence: The partnership reflects asymmetric dependency, with Uzbekistan holding a higher value-add position in manufactured goods but leaning on Kazakhstan for agricultural staples.

This bilateral trade snapshot is based on verified customs data from the yTrade database.

Uzbekistan-Kazakhstan Trade Trend in Q1 2024

Uzbekistan Export Performance: Shipments to Kazakhstan

• Total Volume: $252.03M in Q1 2024.
• Growth Trend & Context:
  • Mixed YoY performance: January saw a sharp 32.57% YoY surge, but February and March declined (-16.89% and -6.26% YoY, respectively).
  • Key Volatility: March recorded a 51.73% MoM spike, the highest growth in the quarter.

Uzbekistan Import Performance: Sourcing from Kazakhstan

• Total Volume: $630.13M in Q1 2024.
• Growth Trend & Context:
  • Consistent YoY declines: All months posted negative growth (-30.24% in January, -17.11% in February, -14.05% in March).
  • Key Volatility: January had the steepest MoM drop (-35.82%), while February and March showed modest recovery (12.51% and 4.0% MoM).

Uzbekistan - Kazakhstan Trade Balance & Market Dynamics

• Net Position: Trade Deficit of $378.1M (Imports exceeded exports).
• Relationship Status: Uzbekistan remains heavily dependent on imports from Kazakhstan, with a widening deficit compared to Q1 2023 trends.

Uzbekistan Import Trend from Kazakhstan 2024 Q1 (Source: yTrade)**

Uzbekistan Export Trend to Kazakhstan 2024 Q1 (Source: yTrade)**

Get Historical Uzbekistan Kazakhstan Trade Records

Uzbekistan-Kazakhstan Top Trading Products in Q1 2024

Uzbekistan Export Profile: What Does Uzbekistan Sell to Kazakhstan

• Top Commodity: Vehicles (HS 87) dominate exports, accounting for 31.07% of total exports to Kazakhstan.
• Demand Driver: Kazakhstan’s market absorbs Uzbek vehicles, likely due to competitive pricing or regional trade agreements.
• Concentration: The trade is moderately concentrated, with the top 3 categories (HS 87, 84, 07) making up 52.83% of exports.

Uzbekistan Import Profile: What Does Uzbekistan Buy from Kazakhstan

• Top Commodity: Cereals (HS 10) lead imports, representing 25.66% of total imports from Kazakhstan.
• Dependency Nature: Uzbekistan relies on Kazakhstan for staple crops, indicating a food security linkage.

Uzbekistan - Kazakhstan Trade Relationship Dynamics

• The Exchange Model: Resource-for-Tech Complementarity. Uzbekistan exports vehicles and machinery (higher-value goods) while importing agricultural staples and raw materials (lower-value goods).
• Value Chain Position: Uzbekistan holds the higher value-add position, exporting manufactured goods (HS 87, 84) versus Kazakhstan’s focus on primary commodities (HS 10, 72).

Import Analysis by Product: Kazakhstan to Uzbekistan (Source: yTrade)

Export Analysis by Product: Uzbekistan to Kazakhstan (Source: yTrade)

Check Detailed Uzbekistan-Kazakhstan Trade HS Code Breakdown

Future Outlook & Strategic Recommendations

Forecast

Uzbekistan’s trade deficit with Kazakhstan is likely to persist in Q2 2024, driven by continued reliance on Kazakh cereals and raw materials. However, the volatile export performance—marked by sharp monthly swings—suggests potential for recovery if Uzbek vehicle and machinery exporters stabilize shipments. Kazakhstan’s declining imports from Uzbekistan signal weakening demand, but the March export spike indicates latent opportunities in niche sectors. Without intervention, the trade imbalance may widen further, pressuring Uzbekistan’s external accounts.

Strategic Moves

• Diversify Import Sources: Reduce dependency on Kazakh cereals by exploring alternative suppliers in Russia or Turkey to mitigate food security risks and price volatility.
• Boost High-Value Exports: Capitalize on Uzbekistan’s competitive edge in vehicles (HS 87) by expanding marketing efforts in Kazakhstan’s secondary cities, where demand may be underserved.
• Lock in Long-Term Contracts: Secure fixed-price agreements for critical Kazakh imports (e.g., wheat) to hedge against future price surges and supply disruptions.

Frequently Asked Questions

How did Uzbekistan - Kazakhstan trade perform in 2024 Q1?

Uzbekistan exported $252.03M to Kazakhstan, with mixed YoY growth, while imports totaled $630.13M, showing consistent YoY declines. The trade deficit widened to $378.1M.

What are the top exports from Uzbekistan to Kazakhstan?

Vehicles (HS 87) dominate, accounting for 31.07% of exports, followed by machinery (HS 84) and edible vegetables (HS 07).

What does Uzbekistan import from Kazakhstan?

Cereals (HS 10) lead imports at 25.66%, reflecting Uzbekistan’s reliance on Kazakhstan for staple crops.

What is the trade balance between Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan?

Uzbekistan recorded a trade deficit of $378.1M, with imports exceeding exports, and the gap widened compared to Q1 2023.