2025 Uzbekistan Dried Fruit (HS 081320) Export: Volatility Surge

Key Takeaways

Dried Fruit, classified under HS Code 081320, exhibited pronounced volatility from January to November 2025.

• Market Pulse: Exports surged in March ($7.09M, 4.84M kg) and September ($6.56M, 4.58M kg), then collapsed to a yearly low in November ($312.97K, 165.73K kg), reflecting harvest-driven volatility.
• Structural Shift: Uzbekistan Dried Fruit Export reliance on China Mainland (51.78% of value) and Key Accounts (86.69% of value) creates acute concentration risk.
• Product Logic: HS Code 081320 trade data shows a bulk commodity market (avg. $1.46/kg) with no product diversification—100% of exports were dried prunes.

This overview covers the period from January to November 2025 and is based on verified customs data from the yTrade database.

Uzbekistan Dried Fruit (HS Code 081320) Key Metrics Trend

Market Trend Summary

The Uzbekistan Dried Fruit Export trend exhibited pronounced volatility from January to November 2025, defined by two major surges interrupted by steep contractions. Export value and volume both peaked sharply in March at $7.09M and 4.84M kg, before declining through mid-year and then rallying again to a secondary high in September at $6.56M and 4.58M kg. The trend concluded with a severe collapse in November, where exports fell to just $312.97K and 165.73K kg, marking the lowest monthly performance of the period.

Drivers & Industry Context

The volatility in export volume aligns with typical dried fruit harvest and processing cycles, where post-harvest shipments in Q1 and Q3 often drive peaks, while mid-year and year-end troughs may reflect logistics gaps or buyer inventory cycles. No policy changes directly impacted HS Code 081320, as Uzbekistan's July 2025 export duties targeted raw materials like cotton and metals, not processed fruits [LEXCELL]. The November crash may indicate accelerated shipments ahead of year-end or shifted demand, though the extreme drop warrants monitoring for structural shifts. The value derived from HS Code 081320 remains tied to agricultural output timing rather than regulatory intervention.

Table: Uzbekistan Dried Fruit Export Trend (Source: yTrade)

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Uzbekistan HS Code 081320 Export Breakdown

Market Composition & Top Categories

The Uzbekistan HS Code 081320 export market is entirely monopolized by a single product category: dried prunes, which accounted for 100% of the total export value and weight throughout most of 2025. According to yTrade data, this category represented the entirety of shipments under this code, with no other sub-codes registering any measurable trade activity during the period.

Value Chain & Strategic Insights

The unit price for these dried prune exports averaged USD 1.46 per kilogram, indicating a low-value, bulk commodity trade rather than a premium or processed product segment. This HS Code 081320 breakdown reveals a classic commodity market structure, where competition is primarily price-driven with minimal product differentiation or quality-based segmentation. Exporters should focus on cost efficiency and volume optimization to maintain competitiveness in this trade structure.

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Uzbekistan Dried Fruit Destination Countries

Geographic Concentration & Market Risk

Uzbekistan's Dried Fruit exports from January to November 2025 show extreme concentration, with China Mainland accounting for 51.78% of total export value. This heavy reliance on a single market for over half of export earnings exposes Uzbekistan to significant supply chain vulnerabilities, such as demand shifts or trade policy changes in China. Diversifying Uzbekistan Dried Fruit export destinations is critical to mitigate these risks and ensure stable revenue streams.

Purchasing Behavior & Demand Segmentation

China's import patterns reveal a commodity-driven approach, with a weight ratio of 56.10% slightly exceeding its value ratio of 51.78%, indicating bulk purchases at lower unit prices—around 1.35 USD/kg compared to Russia's 2.36 USD/kg. This disparity, coupled with moderate shipment frequency, points to price-sensitive bulk processing rather than premium or retail demand. Consequently, Uzbekistan's trade partners for Dried Fruit primarily offer volume scale, not high margin potential.

Table: Uzbekistan Dried Fruit (HS Code 081320) Top Destination Countries (Source: yTrade)

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Uzbekistan Dried Fruit Buyer Companies Analysis

Buyer Concentration & Market Structure

According to yTrade data, the Uzbekistan Dried Fruit export market shows extreme concentration, with Key Accounts—high-volume, repeat buyers—dominating 86.69% of the value share from January to November 2025. This indicates a stable, contract-based supply chain, likely involving large retailers or processors who rely on consistent shipments. Representative firms like AROMAPRODUCT LTD underscore the dominance of these Uzbekistan Dried Fruit buyers in driving export revenues.

Purchasing Behavior & Sales Strategy

The high frequency of purchases by Key Accounts suggests entrenched, long-term relationships, but the market's heavy reliance on a few buyers poses significant concentration risk. Sellers should prioritize contract retention and value-added services to secure these accounts, while exploring diversification to mitigate dependency. Monitoring regulatory shifts, such as new export duties [LEXCELL], is crucial for adapting to cost impacts on HS Code 081320 buyer trends.

Table: Uzbekistan Dried Fruit (HS Code 081320) Top Buyers List (Source: yTrade)

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Action Plan for Dried Fruit Market Operation and Expansion

• Diversify buyers: Target secondary markets like Russia (higher $2.36/kg unit price) to reduce dependence on China’s price-sensitive bulk demand.
• Lock contracts: Secure long-term agreements with Key Accounts (86.69% of value share) to stabilize revenue amid volatile shipment cycles.
• Optimize logistics: Cut transport and handling costs to defend margins in a low-value ($1.46/kg) bulk commodity trade.
• Monitor harvest cycles: Align inventory and pricing strategies with Q1/Q3 shipment peaks to capitalize on seasonal demand surges.
• Audit regulatory exposure: Track potential duty changes (e.g., Uzbekistan’s July 2025 raw material tariffs) for indirect cost impacts.

Take Action Now —— Explore Uzbekistan Dried Fruit HS Code 081320 Export Data

Frequently Asked Questions

Q1. What is driving the recent changes in Uzbekistan Dried Fruit Export in 2025?

The volatility in Uzbekistan's dried fruit exports is tied to agricultural cycles, with peaks in Q1 and Q3 post-harvest and steep drops mid-year and in November. No regulatory changes impacted this trade, but the extreme November decline suggests potential demand shifts or inventory adjustments.

Q2. Who are the main destination countries of Uzbekistan Dried Fruit (HS Code 081320) in 2025?

China Mainland dominates, absorbing 51.78% of export value, followed by Russia. These two markets account for the bulk of Uzbekistan's dried fruit shipments.

Q3. Why does the unit price differ across destination countries of Uzbekistan Dried Fruit Export in 2025?

China's lower unit price (1.35 USD/kg vs. Russia's 2.36 USD/kg) reflects bulk commodity purchases for processing, while Russia's higher price may indicate retail or premium demand segments.

Q4. What should exporters in Uzbekistan focus on in the current Dried Fruit export market?

Exporters must prioritize retaining Key Accounts (86.69% of trade) while diversifying buyers and destinations to mitigate reliance on China and a few large contracts.

Q5. What does this Uzbekistan Dried Fruit export pattern mean for buyers in partner countries?

Buyers benefit from stable bulk supply at low prices (averaging 1.46 USD/kg), but reliance on Uzbekistan's concentrated market poses risks if harvests or trade policies shift.

Q6. How is Dried Fruit typically used in this trade flow?

Dried prunes (100% of HS Code 081320 exports) are traded as a low-value bulk commodity, likely for further processing or mass retail distribution rather than premium markets.