Uzbekistan - Belarus Trade 2024 Q2: Growing Deficit & Asymmetry

Key Market Takeaways: Uzbekistan - Belarus Trade

The bilateral trade relationship between Uzbekistan and Belarus shows growth with volatility in Q2 2024.

• Trade deficit of $98.13M for Uzbekistan, with imports from Belarus ($134.19M) outpacing exports ($36.06M) by 3.7x. Mixed YoY export growth contrasts with strong import expansion (+39.88% peak).
• Resource-for-Food Complementarity: Uzbekistan exports textiles (25.5% knit apparel) while relying on Belarus for meat (24.1% of imports), reflecting basic trade asymmetry in Uzbekistan - Belarus trade statistics.
• Limited integration: The exchange lacks deep industrial ties, with Uzbekistan holding slight value-add advantage in finished goods vs. Belarus’s commodity-driven exports.

This bilateral trade snapshot is based on verified customs data from the yTrade database.

Uzbekistan-Belarus Trade Trend in Q2 2024

Uzbekistan Export Performance: Shipments to Belarus

• Total Volume: $36.06M in Q2 2024.
• Growth Trend & Context:
  • YoY growth was mixed: +4.82% in April, -8.39% in May, and +6.73% in June.
  • No significant trade news to explain fluctuations.
• Key Volatility: April saw the sharpest MoM drop (-10.14%), while May and June declines were marginal (<1%).

Uzbekistan Import Performance: Sourcing from Belarus

• Total Volume: $134.19M in Q2 2024.
• Growth Trend & Context:
  • Strong YoY growth overall (+39.88% in June), despite a -19.42% MoM drop from May to June.
• Key Volatility: May peaked with a 25.73% MoM surge, while June posted the steepest monthly decline.

Uzbekistan - Belarus Trade Balance & Market Dynamics

• Net Position: Trade deficit of $98.13M (Imports exceeded exports by 3.7x).
• Relationship Status: Heavy reliance on Belarusian imports, with exports playing a minor role.

Uzbekistan Import Trend from Belarus 2024 Q2 (Source: yTrade)**

Uzbekistan Export Trend to Belarus 2024 Q2 (Source: yTrade)**

Get Historical Uzbekistan Belarus Trade Records

Uzbekistan-Belarus Top Trading Products in Q2 2024

Uzbekistan Export Profile: What Does Uzbekistan Sell to Belarus

• Top Commodity: Rank #1 export is HS 61 (Knit apparel), accounting for 25.50% of total exports to Belarus.
• Demand Driver: Belarus imports Uzbek knitwear to serve its consumer market, likely due to competitive pricing or regional trade agreements.
• Concentration: The top 3 exports (HS 61, 72, 52) make up 49.42% of total exports, indicating moderate concentration but no single dominant category.

Uzbekistan Import Profile: What Does Uzbekistan Buy from Belarus

• Top Commodity: Rank #1 import is HS 02 (Meat), representing 24.11% of total imports from Belarus.
• Dependency Nature: Uzbekistan relies on Belarus for food security, as meat and dairy (HS 04) dominate imports, suggesting agricultural trade ties.

Uzbekistan - Belarus Trade Relationship Dynamics

• The Exchange Model: Resource-for-Food Complementarity. Uzbekistan exports textiles (consumer goods) while importing agricultural products, reflecting a basic trade-off rather than deep industrial integration.
• Value Chain Position: Uzbekistan holds a slightly higher value-add position (exporting finished apparel) compared to Belarus’s commodity-driven meat exports. Trade is asymmetric but not technologically intensive.

Import Analysis by Product: Belarus to Uzbekistan (Source: yTrade)

Export Analysis by Product: Uzbekistan to Belarus (Source: yTrade)

Check Detailed Uzbekistan-Belarus Trade HS Code Breakdown

Future Outlook & Strategic Recommendations

Forecast

Uzbekistan’s trade deficit with Belarus is likely to persist in Q3 2024, driven by strong demand for Belarusian meat and dairy products. However, Uzbek knitwear exports may stabilize if Belarusian consumer demand remains steady, though volatility in monthly growth rates suggests caution. The resource-for-food trade dynamic will continue, but without significant policy shifts, the imbalance is unlikely to narrow. Traders should prepare for sustained asymmetry in this relationship.

Strategic Moves

• Diversify Export Markets: Uzbek textile exporters should reduce reliance on Belarus by targeting other CIS or EU markets to mitigate demand fluctuations.
• Secure Long-term Meat Contracts: Uzbek importers should negotiate fixed-price agreements with Belarusian suppliers to hedge against potential price surges in key commodities like HS 02 (Meat).
• Invest in Value-Added Agriculture: Uzbekistan should explore domestic meat and dairy production to reduce dependency on Belarusian imports, leveraging existing trade ties for technology transfer.

Frequently Asked Questions

How did Uzbekistan - Belarus trade perform in 2024 Q2?

Uzbekistan's exports to Belarus totaled $36.06M, with mixed YoY growth, while imports from Belarus reached $134.19M, showing strong YoY growth despite monthly volatility.

What are the top exports from Uzbekistan to Belarus?

The top exports are HS 61 (Knit apparel), HS 72 (Iron and steel), and HS 52 (Cotton), accounting for 49.42% of total exports.

What does Uzbekistan import from Belarus?

Uzbekistan primarily imports HS 02 (Meat) and HS 04 (Dairy) from Belarus, reflecting a focus on agricultural products for food security.

What is the trade balance between Uzbekistan and Belarus?

Uzbekistan recorded a trade deficit of $98.13M with Belarus, as imports exceeded exports by 3.7x in Q2 2024.