Uzbekistan - Belarus Trade 2024 Q1: Deficit & Resource Exchange

Key Market Takeaways: Uzbekistan - Belarus Trade

The bilateral trade relationship between Uzbekistan and Belarus shows mixed growth with a heavy import dependency in Q1 2024.

• Trade Deficit Dominates: Uzbekistan’s $68.53M deficit ($102.59M imports vs. $34.06M exports) reflects a 3:1 import-to-export ratio, with imports declining YoY but still dwarfing exports.
• Resource-for-Tech Exchange: Uzbekistan - Belarus trade statistics reveal a clear split: Uzbekistan supplies low-tech consumer goods (55.91% apparel/textiles), while Belarus delivers industrial inputs like wood (27.12%) and machinery.
• Asymmetric Interdependence: Belarus holds the higher-value position, supplying capital goods, while Uzbekistan’s export basket remains concentrated in labor-intensive sectors.

This bilateral trade snapshot is based on verified customs data from the yTrade database.

Uzbekistan-Belarus Trade Trend in Q1 2024

Uzbekistan Export Performance: Shipments to Belarus

• Total Volume: $34.06M in Q1 2024.
• Growth Trend & Context:
  • Mixed YoY performance: +2.03% in January, +43.3% in February, then -2.41% in March.
  • February’s 86.05% MoM surge stands out, though March flattened near February’s level.
• Key Volatility: February’s export spike (86.05% MoM) was the sharpest movement.

Uzbekistan Import Performance: Sourcing from Belarus

• Total Volume: $102.59M in Q1 2024.
• Growth Trend & Context:
  • Consistently negative YoY trends: -16.55% (Feb), -22.43% (Mar), despite a +3.57% start in January.
  • March saw a partial recovery (+9.97% MoM) after February’s -7.47% dip.
• Key Volatility: January’s -23.79% MoM drop was the steepest monthly decline.

Uzbekistan - Belarus Trade Balance & Market Dynamics

• Net Position: Trade deficit of $68.53M (Imports $102.59M > Exports $34.06M).
• Relationship Status: Uzbekistan remains heavily dependent on imports from Belarus, with Q1 imports triple export volumes.

Uzbekistan Import Trend from Belarus 2024 Q1 (Source: yTrade)**

Uzbekistan Export Trend to Belarus 2024 Q1 (Source: yTrade)**

Get Historical Uzbekistan Belarus Trade Records

Uzbekistan-Belarus Top Trading Products in Q1 2024

Uzbekistan Export Profile: What Does Uzbekistan Sell to Belarus

• Top Commodity: HS Code 61 (Knitted apparel) dominates exports, accounting for 23.49% of total value.
• Demand Driver: Consumer goods like apparel (HS 61, 60) and textiles (HS 52, 54) suggest Uzbekistan serves Belarus's retail market.
• Concentration: No single category exceeds 50%, but apparel and textiles collectively make up 55.91% of exports.

Uzbekistan Import Profile: What Does Uzbekistan Buy from Belarus

• Top Commodity: HS Code 44 (Wood and articles) leads imports at 27.12% of total value.
• Dependency Nature: Imports of wood (HS 44), vehicles (HS 87), and machinery (HS 84) indicate reliance on Belarus for industrial inputs and capital goods.

Uzbekistan - Belarus Trade Relationship Dynamics

• The Exchange Model: Resource-for-Tech Complementarity—Uzbekistan exports consumer textiles (low-tech) while importing industrial goods like machinery and vehicles (higher-tech).
• Value Chain Position: Belarus holds the higher value-add position, supplying processed industrial goods, while Uzbekistan provides labor-intensive consumer products.

Import Analysis by Product: Belarus to Uzbekistan (Source: yTrade)

Export Analysis by Product: Uzbekistan to Belarus (Source: yTrade)

Check Detailed Uzbekistan-Belarus Trade HS Code Breakdown

Future Outlook & Strategic Recommendations

Forecast

Uzbekistan’s trade with Belarus in Q1 2024 reveals a volatile but structurally complementary relationship, with exports showing resilience in consumer goods (apparel, textiles) while imports of industrial inputs (wood, machinery) remain dominant. Given Belarus’s persistent demand for Uzbek textiles and Uzbekistan’s reliance on Belarusian capital goods, trade volumes are likely to stabilize with modest growth in Q2, though the deficit may persist. However, exporters must prepare for potential demand fluctuations, especially if Belarus’s industrial sector faces further slowdowns. The Uzbekistan-Belarus trade forecast hinges on balancing export diversification with securing stable import channels for critical inputs.

Strategic Moves

• Expand Export Basket Beyond Textiles: Uzbek exporters should target Belarus’s growing retail and light manufacturing sectors with higher-value textile products (e.g., technical fabrics) to reduce overreliance on basic apparel (HS 61).
• Lock In Long-Term Contracts for Industrial Imports: Importers of Belarusian machinery (HS 84) and vehicles (HS 87) should negotiate fixed-price agreements to hedge against potential supply chain disruptions or price volatility.
• Diversify Import Sources for Critical Inputs: To mitigate the $68.53M trade deficit, Uzbek firms must explore alternative suppliers for wood (HS 44) and machinery in markets like Turkey or China, reducing dependency on Belarus.

Frequently Asked Questions

How did Uzbekistan - Belarus trade perform in 2024 Q1?

Uzbekistan's exports to Belarus totaled $34.06M, with mixed YoY growth (+2.03% in January, +43.3% in February, -2.41% in March). Imports from Belarus reached $102.59M, showing consistent YoY declines (-16.55% in February, -22.43% in March).

What are the top exports from Uzbekistan to Belarus?

Uzbekistan primarily exports knitted apparel (HS 61), textiles (HS 52, 54), and other consumer goods, which collectively account for 55.91% of total exports to Belarus.

What does Uzbekistan import from Belarus?

Uzbekistan's top imports from Belarus include wood and articles (HS 44), vehicles (HS 87), and machinery (HS 84), reflecting reliance on industrial inputs and capital goods.

What is the trade balance between Uzbekistan and Belarus?

Uzbekistan recorded a trade deficit of $68.53M with Belarus in Q1 2024, as imports ($102.59M) significantly exceeded exports ($34.06M). The deficit highlights Uzbekistan's dependency on Belarus for industrial goods.