Uzbekistan - Afghanistan Trade 2023 Whole Year: $709M Surplus Dominance

Key Market Takeaways: Uzbekistan - Afghanistan Trade

The bilateral trade relationship between Uzbekistan and Afghanistan is marked by volatile growth and a lopsided surplus in 2023.

• Uzbekistan dominates with a $709M surplus, exporting $719.5M (mostly food and apparel) while importing just $10.3M (agricultural goods). Trade swings sharply month-to-month.
• Uzbekistan - Afghanistan trade statistics reveal a resource-for-food exchange: Processed staples (flour, clothing) flow south, while raw fruits/nuts trickle north. HS Code 11 alone makes up 57.5% of exports.
• Asymmetrical interdependence: Uzbekistan’s export dominance reflects Afghanistan’s reliance on its processed goods, with minimal reciprocal demand.

This bilateral trade snapshot is based on verified customs data from the yTrade database.

Uzbekistan-Afghanistan Trade Trend in Whole Year 2023

Uzbekistan Export Performance: Shipments to Afghanistan

• Total Volume: $719.52 million in 2023.
• Growth Trend & Context:
  • Volatile YoY performance, with sharp spikes in July (+90.85%) and September to October (+387.37% and +352.98% respectively).
  • Severe contraction in June (-48.83% MoM, -24.27% YoY) preceded the mid-year rebound.
• Key Volatility: July recorded the highest MoM surge (+199.91%) and value ($88.95M), while June was the weakest ($29.66M).

Uzbekistan Import Performance: Sourcing from Afghanistan

• Total Volume: $10.31 million in 2023.
• Growth Trend & Context:
  • Extreme YoY swings: May (+194.39%) and August (+179.23%) saw surges, while March (-58.74%) and January (-38.87%) dropped sharply.
• Key Volatility: August peaked at $1.91M (+191.94% MoM), but September collapsed (-60.29% MoM).

Uzbekistan - Afghanistan Trade Balance & Market Dynamics

• Net Position: Trade surplus of $709.21 million (Exports $719.52M vs. Imports $10.31M).
• Relationship Status: Uzbekistan dominates as a net exporter, with exports nearly 70x higher than imports. Trade is lopsided, suggesting minimal reliance on Afghan goods.

Uzbekistan Import Trend from Afghanistan 2023 Whole Year (Source: yTrade)**

Uzbekistan Export Trend to Afghanistan 2023 Whole Year (Source: yTrade)**

Get Historical Uzbekistan Afghanistan Trade Records

Uzbekistan-Afghanistan Top Trading Products in Whole Year 2023

Uzbekistan Export Profile: What Does Uzbekistan Sell to Afghanistan

• Top Commodity: HS Code 11 (57.54% share). This category includes milling industry products like flour and cereals, indicating Afghanistan's reliance on Uzbekistan for staple food supplies.
• Demand Driver: Consumer Goods dominate (HS 11, 07, 62, 61), serving Afghanistan's domestic market needs, particularly for basic food and apparel.
• Concentration: Extreme—HS 11 alone accounts for over half of exports, highlighting a lopsided trade structure.

Uzbekistan Import Profile: What Does Uzbekistan Buy from Afghanistan

• Top Commodity: HS Code 08 (28.30% share). This covers edible fruits and nuts, suggesting Uzbekistan sources agricultural products from Afghanistan.
• Dependency Nature: Primarily Agricultural (HS 08, 09, 07), reflecting food security linkages rather than critical industrial inputs.

Uzbekistan - Afghanistan Trade Relationship Dynamics

• The Exchange Model: Resource-for-Food Complementarity. Uzbekistan exports processed food (HS 11) and garments (HS 62, 61) while importing raw agricultural goods (HS 08, 09) from Afghanistan.
• Value Chain Position: Uzbekistan holds higher value-add, exporting processed goods (flour, clothing) versus Afghanistan's raw produce (fruits, nuts). Trade skews toward basic consumption needs.

Import Analysis by Product: Afghanistan to Uzbekistan (Source: yTrade)

Export Analysis by Product: Uzbekistan to Afghanistan (Source: yTrade)

Check Detailed Uzbekistan-Afghanistan Trade HS Code Breakdown

Future Outlook & Strategic Recommendations

Forecast

Uzbekistan’s trade surplus with Afghanistan is expected to widen further in 2024, driven by sustained demand for processed food (HS 11) and apparel. However, extreme volatility—particularly in export spikes and contractions—demands caution. The lopsided trade structure, with Uzbekistan dominating exports, may face pressure if Afghanistan diversifies its food suppliers or boosts domestic production. Traders should anticipate short-term fluctuations but maintain confidence in the long-term growth trajectory of Uzbekistan-Afghanistan trade.

Strategic Moves

• Secure Long-Term Contracts for Staple Exports: Given Afghanistan’s heavy reliance on Uzbek flour and cereals (HS 11), exporters should lock in multi-year supply agreements to stabilize revenue streams amid volatile monthly swings.
• Diversify Import Sources for Agricultural Goods: While Afghanistan supplies fruits and nuts (HS 08), Uzbekistan should reduce dependency by sourcing from alternative markets to mitigate supply chain disruptions from Afghan instability.
• Expand Export Basket Beyond HS 11: To reduce overreliance on a single commodity, Uzbek traders must push higher-value processed goods (e.g., packaged foods, textiles) to capitalize on Afghanistan’s consumer market growth.

Frequently Asked Questions

How did Uzbekistan - Afghanistan trade perform in 2023 Whole Year?

Uzbekistan exported $719.52 million to Afghanistan, with volatile growth, while imports totaled $10.31 million, showing extreme YoY swings.

What are the top exports from Uzbekistan to Afghanistan?

Milling industry products (HS Code 11) like flour and cereals dominate, accounting for 57.54% of exports, followed by consumer goods like apparel (HS 62, 61).

What does Uzbekistan import from Afghanistan?

Edible fruits and nuts (HS Code 08) are the top imports, making up 28.30% of shipments, reflecting agricultural trade ties.

What is the trade balance between Uzbekistan and Afghanistan?

Uzbekistan holds a trade surplus of $709.21 million, with exports nearly 70x higher than imports, indicating a lopsided trade relationship.