Peru - Brazil Trade 2024 Q4: Stagnant Deficit & Volatility

Key Market Takeaways: Peru - Brazil Trade

The bilateral trade relationship between Peru and Brazil remains stagnant in Q4 2024, with flat YoY growth and volatile monthly swings.

• Deficit-Driven Trade: Peru runs a $674.71M trade deficit with Brazil, importing $1.06B (flat YoY) while exporting only $385.29M. Volatility spiked in December, with sharp MoM drops on both sides.
• Resource-for-Tech Exchange: Peru - Brazil trade statistics show a lopsided flow: Peru supplies raw copper (30% of exports) while relying on Brazilian mineral fuels (21.6% of imports) and machinery.
• Asymmetrical Dependency: Brazil holds the value-add advantage, exporting processed goods, while Peru’s role as a raw material supplier underscores limited economic upgrading.

This bilateral trade snapshot is based on verified customs data from the yTrade database.

Peru-Brazil Trade Trend in Q4 2024

Peru Export Performance: Shipments to Brazil

• Total Volume: $385.29M in Q4 2024.
• Growth Trend & Context: YoY growth flat (0.0%), indicating stagnant demand. No trade policy shifts reported.
• Key Volatility: Sharp 36.59% MoM drop in December, offsetting November’s 14.08% surge.

Peru Import Performance: Sourcing from Brazil

• Total Volume: $1.06B in Q4 2024.
• Growth Trend & Context: YoY growth flat (0.0%). No supply disruptions or policy changes noted.
• Key Volatility: Steep 26.19% MoM decline in December, following a 7.68% drop in November.

Peru - Brazil Trade Balance & Market Dynamics

• Net Position: Trade deficit of $674.71M (Imports exceeded exports).
• Relationship Status: Heavy reliance on Brazilian imports, with exports failing to offset inbound trade volume.

Peru Import Trend from Brazil 2024 Q4 (Source: yTrade)**

Peru Export Trend to Brazil 2024 Q4 (Source: yTrade)**

Get Historical Peru Brazil Trade Records

Peru-Brazil Top Trading Products in Q4 2024

Peru Export Profile: What Does Peru Sell to Brazil

• Top Commodity: Copper (HS 74) dominates exports, accounting for 30.18% of total value.
• Demand Driver: Brazil uses these raw materials for industrial processing, likely in manufacturing and construction sectors.
• Concentration: The trade is moderately concentrated, with copper alone representing nearly a third of exports.

Peru Import Profile: What Does Peru Buy from Brazil

• Top Commodity: Mineral fuels (HS 27) lead imports, making up 21.63% of total value.
• Dependency Nature: Energy security dependency, as Peru relies on Brazil for oil and related products.

Peru - Brazil Trade Relationship Dynamics

• The Exchange Model: Resource-for-Tech Complementarity. Peru exports raw materials (copper) while importing energy and machinery from Brazil.
• Value Chain Position: Brazil holds a higher value-add position, supplying processed goods (HS 84, 87) alongside energy, while Peru primarily provides raw materials.

Import Analysis by Product: Brazil to Peru (Source: yTrade)

Export Analysis by Product: Peru to Brazil (Source: yTrade)

Check Detailed Peru-Brazil Trade HS Code Breakdown

Future Outlook & Strategic Recommendations

Forecast

Peru’s trade with Brazil is expected to remain flat in the near term, with no significant YoY growth projected for Q1 2025. The volatile monthly swings—particularly the sharp December declines in both exports and imports—suggest underlying demand and supply instability, despite the absence of policy shifts. Given Peru’s heavy reliance on Brazilian energy imports and stagnant copper exports, the trade deficit is likely to persist unless structural adjustments are made. Traders should prepare for a period of consolidation, with potential upside only emerging if commodity demand rebounds or new trade agreements are negotiated.

Strategic Moves

• Diversify Energy Sources: Reduce dependency on Brazilian mineral fuels by exploring alternative suppliers in North America or regional LNG markets to mitigate supply chain vulnerabilities.
• Boost Copper Value-Add: Invest in downstream processing capabilities to export higher-value copper products, capturing more of the value chain and reducing reliance on raw material sales.
• Lock In Long-Term Contracts: Secure fixed-price agreements for critical imports (e.g., machinery, HS 84/87) to hedge against potential cost volatility and ensure stable input flows for Peruvian industries.

Frequently Asked Questions

How did Peru - Brazil trade perform in 2024 Q4?

Peru's exports to Brazil totaled $385.29M, with flat YoY growth (0.0%), while imports from Brazil reached $1.06B, also showing no YoY change. Trade was volatile, with sharp MoM declines in December for both exports and imports.

What are the top exports from Peru to Brazil?

Copper (HS 74) dominates Peru's exports to Brazil, accounting for 30.18% of the total export value, reflecting Brazil's demand for raw materials in industrial processing.

What does Peru import from Brazil?

Mineral fuels (HS 27) lead Peru's imports from Brazil, making up 21.63% of the total import value, highlighting Peru's energy security dependency on Brazilian oil and related products.

What is the trade balance between Peru and Brazil?

Peru recorded a trade deficit of $674.71M with Brazil in Q4 2024, as imports significantly exceeded exports, indicating heavy reliance on Brazilian goods.