Peru - Brazil Trade 2024 Q3: Stagnant Growth, Volatile Swings

Key Market Takeaways: Peru - Brazil Trade

The bilateral trade relationship between Peru and Brazil shows stagnant growth with volatile monthly swings in Q3 2024.

• Trade Deficit Dominates: Peru runs a $553.15M deficit with Brazil, driven by imports ($946.34M) nearly 2.4x higher than exports ($393.19M). Volatility spiked in Q3, with Brazilian imports surging +39% MoM in September.
• Resource-for-Tech Exchange: Peru - Brazil trade statistics reveal a lopsided structure—Peru ships copper and ores (56.7% of exports) while importing Brazilian vehicles, machinery, and fuels (43.9% of imports).
• Asymmetric Interdependence: Brazil holds the upper hand, supplying higher-value industrial goods, while Peru remains locked in a commodity-export role with limited intra-industry trade.

This bilateral trade snapshot is based on verified customs data from the yTrade database.

Peru-Brazil Trade Trend in Q3 2024

Peru Export Performance: Shipments to Brazil

• Total Volume: $393.19M in Q3 2024.
• Growth Trend & Context: YoY growth flat (0.0%) across all months. No significant policy shifts or external events noted.
• Key Volatility: August saw a sharp -29.93% MoM drop, followed by a partial recovery (+25.06% MoM) in September.

Peru Import Performance: Sourcing from Brazil

• Total Volume: $946.34M in Q3 2024.
• Growth Trend & Context: YoY growth flat (0.0%), with no news-driven disruptions.
• Key Volatility: Steep MoM surges: +37.45% in August and +39.45% in September, peaking at $422.70M.

Peru - Brazil Trade Balance & Market Dynamics

• Net Position: Trade deficit of $553.15M (Imports exceed exports).
• Relationship Status: Heavy reliance on Brazilian imports, with exports failing to offset inbound trade volume.

Peru Import Trend from Brazil 2024 Q3 (Source: yTrade)**

Peru Export Trend to Brazil 2024 Q3 (Source: yTrade)**

Get Historical Peru Brazil Trade Records

Peru-Brazil Top Trading Products in Q3 2024

Peru Export Profile: What Does Peru Sell to Brazil

• Top Commodity: Copper (HS 74) dominates, accounting for 25.84% of exports.
• Demand Driver: Brazil uses these raw materials (copper, ores, fuels) for industrial processing. The presence of HS 26 (ores) and HS 27 (fuels) reinforces this.
• Concentration: The top 3 exports (HS 74, 27, 26) make up 56.71% of total exports, indicating moderate concentration.

Peru Import Profile: What Does Peru Buy from Brazil

• Top Commodity: Mineral fuels (HS 27) lead at 22.74%, followed closely by vehicles (HS 87) at 21.15%.
• Dependency Nature: Dual reliance—energy security (HS 27) and industrial inputs (HS 87, 84). Agricultural imports (HS 02, 17) suggest supplementary food demand.

Peru - Brazil Trade Relationship Dynamics

• The Exchange Model: Resource-for-Tech Complementarity. Peru exports raw materials (copper, ores) while importing higher-value industrial goods (vehicles, machinery).
• Value Chain Position: Brazil holds the advantage, supplying processed/manufactured goods (HS 87, 84) versus Peru’s commodity-heavy exports. The overlap in HS 72 (steel) hints at limited intra-industry trade.

Import Analysis by Product: Brazil to Peru (Source: yTrade)

Export Analysis by Product: Peru to Brazil (Source: yTrade)

Check Detailed Peru-Brazil Trade HS Code Breakdown

Future Outlook & Strategic Recommendations

Forecast

Peru’s trade deficit with Brazil is likely to persist in Q4 2024, driven by continued high demand for Brazilian industrial goods (HS 87, 84) and mineral fuels (HS 27). While copper (HS 74) exports may stabilize, the lack of export diversification limits Peru’s ability to close the gap. Volatility in monthly trade flows—particularly the sharp import surges in August and September—suggests traders should prepare for irregular demand spikes. Without policy intervention or new trade agreements, the current resource-for-tech exchange model will maintain Brazil’s structural advantage.

Strategic Moves

• Diversify Export Markets: Peruvian exporters must reduce reliance on copper by promoting secondary commodities (e.g., agricultural products) to Brazil or targeting alternative markets to balance the trade deficit.
• Lock in Fuel Supply Contracts: Given Brazil’s dominance in mineral fuel exports (HS 27), Peruvian importers should negotiate long-term agreements to mitigate price volatility and ensure stable energy supply.
• Invest in Value-Added Processing: To counter Brazil’s industrial advantage, Peru should incentivize domestic processing of raw materials (e.g., refining copper) to capture higher export margins and reduce dependency on finished goods imports.

Frequently Asked Questions

How did Peru - Brazil trade perform in 2024 Q3?

Peru's exports to Brazil totaled $393.19M, while imports reached $946.34M in Q3 2024. Both showed flat YoY growth (0.0%), with notable monthly volatility in trade volumes.

What are the top exports from Peru to Brazil?

Peru's top exports to Brazil are copper (HS 74), mineral fuels (HS 27), and ores (HS 26), which together account for 56.71% of total exports.

What does Peru import from Brazil?

Peru primarily imports mineral fuels (HS 27), vehicles (HS 87), and machinery (HS 84) from Brazil, reflecting a dual reliance on energy and industrial inputs.

What is the trade balance between Peru and Brazil?

Peru recorded a trade deficit of $553.15M with Brazil in Q3 2024, as imports significantly outweighed exports. The gap remained stable with no YoY growth shift.