Paraguay - Uruguay Trade 2025 Q1: Surplus & Demand Shifts

Key Market Takeaways: Paraguay - Uruguay Trade

The bilateral trade relationship between Paraguay and Uruguay shows volatile growth with a strong net exporter position for Paraguay in Q1 2025.

• Economic Pulse: Paraguay holds a $21.5M trade surplus, with exports ($46.57M) nearly doubling imports ($25.07M). March saw a sharp export rebound (+144.5% YoY), signaling demand shifts.
• Exchange Structure: Paraguay - Uruguay trade statistics reveal a resource-for-food model: Paraguay supplies raw commodities (oilseeds, meat) while importing processed goods (milling products, dairy). Top 3 exports make up 62.4% of total trade.
• Strategic Interdependence: Highly complementary economies, with Uruguay adding value through processing and Paraguay leveraging raw material exports.

This bilateral trade snapshot is based on verified customs data from the yTrade database.

Paraguay-Uruguay Trade Trend in Q1 2025

Paraguay Export Performance: Shipments to Uruguay

• Total Volume: $46.57M in Q1 2025.
• Growth Trend & Context:
  • YoY swings were volatile: -19.48% in Jan, -61.71% in Feb, then a sharp rebound to +144.5% in Mar.
  • No news to contextualize the extreme YoY shifts.
• Key Volatility: March saw a 68.1% MoM surge, the highest monthly growth.

Paraguay Import Performance: Sourcing from Uruguay

• Total Volume: $25.07M in Q1 2025.
• Growth Trend & Context:
  • YoY started weak (-37.86% in Jan) but accelerated to +55.29% by Mar.
• Key Volatility: March was the peak month (30.89% MoM growth), while January had the steepest decline (-28.06% MoM).

Paraguay - Uruguay Trade Balance & Market Dynamics

• Net Position: Surplus of $21.5M (Exports $46.57M > Imports $25.07M).
• Relationship Status: Paraguay maintains a strong net exporter position, with exports nearly doubling imports. The March export spike (144.5% YoY) suggests rising demand or capacity shifts.

Paraguay Import Trend from Uruguay 2025 Q1 (Source: yTrade)**

Paraguay Export Trend to Uruguay 2025 Q1 (Source: yTrade)**

Get Historical Paraguay Uruguay Trade Records

Paraguay-Uruguay Top Trading Products in Q1 2025

Paraguay Export Profile: What Does Paraguay Sell to Uruguay

• Top Commodity: Oilseeds (HS Code 12) dominate exports, accounting for 22.44% of total value.
• Demand Driver: Uruguay likely uses these for industrial processing, such as oil extraction or animal feed production.
• Concentration: The top 3 exports (HS Codes 12, 23, 02) make up 62.37% of total exports, indicating high trade concentration.

Paraguay Import Profile: What Does Paraguay Buy from Uruguay

• Top Commodity: Milling products (HS Code 11) lead imports with a 22.64% share.
• Dependency Nature: Imports are primarily agricultural (HS Codes 11, 04, 19), suggesting food security dependency.

Paraguay - Uruguay Trade Relationship Dynamics

• The Exchange Model: Resource-for-Food Complementarity. Paraguay exports raw materials (oilseeds, meat) and imports processed agricultural goods (milling products, dairy).
• Value Chain Position: Uruguay holds a higher value-add position, exporting processed goods (HS Codes 11, 30, 38) while Paraguay supplies raw commodities.

Import Analysis by Product: Uruguay to Paraguay (Source: yTrade)

Export Analysis by Product: Paraguay to Uruguay (Source: yTrade)

Check Detailed Paraguay-Uruguay Trade HS Code Breakdown

Future Outlook & Strategic Recommendations

Forecast for Paraguay-Uruguay Trade

The Paraguay-Uruguay trade relationship is poised for expansion in Q2 2025, driven by Paraguay’s strong export rebound in March (+144.5% YoY) and Uruguay’s growing demand for raw commodities like oilseeds. However, the extreme volatility in monthly trade flows—particularly the sharp February export drop (-61.71% YoY)—warrants caution. If the March surge reflects a structural shift rather than seasonal noise, Paraguay could solidify its surplus position, but traders must prepare for potential swings in agricultural commodity prices and supply chain disruptions.

Strategic Moves for Traders & Policymakers

• Lock in Long-Term Contracts for Oilseeds: With HS Code 12 (oilseeds) dominating exports, Paraguayan producers should secure fixed-price agreements to mitigate volatility and capitalize on Uruguay’s processing demand.
• Diversify Import Sources for Processed Goods: Paraguay’s reliance on Uruguayan milling products (HS Code 11) exposes it to supply risks. Buyers should explore alternative suppliers in Argentina or Brazil to reduce dependency.
• Invest in Agri-Processing Capacity: To move up the value chain, Paraguay should incentivize domestic processing of oilseeds and meat, reducing reliance on Uruguayan re-exports and capturing higher margins.

Frequently Asked Questions

How did Paraguay - Uruguay trade perform in 2025 Q1?

Paraguay's exports to Uruguay totaled $46.57M, with volatile YoY swings (-19.48% in Jan, +144.5% in Mar), while imports from Uruguay reached $25.07M, showing recovery (+55.29% YoY by March).

What are the top exports from Paraguay to Uruguay?

Oilseeds (HS Code 12) dominate Paraguay's exports to Uruguay, followed by meat (HS Code 02) and other agricultural raw materials, accounting for 62.37% of total export value.

What does Paraguay import from Uruguay?

Paraguay primarily imports milling products (HS Code 11) from Uruguay, along with dairy (HS Code 04) and processed food (HS Code 19), reflecting a food security dependency.

What is the trade balance between Paraguay and Uruguay?

Paraguay recorded a trade surplus of $21.5M with Uruguay in Q1 2025, maintaining a strong net exporter position as exports nearly doubled imports.