Paraguay - Uruguay Trade 2024 Q4: Surplus Amid Declines

Key Market Takeaways: Paraguay - Uruguay Trade

The bilateral trade relationship between Paraguay and Uruguay showed mixed performance with declining exports but maintained a surplus in Q4 2024.

• Economic Pulse: Paraguay held a $10.27M trade surplus (Exports: $42.84M, Imports: $32.57M), though export volumes fell sharply YoY.
• Exchange Structure: Paraguay - Uruguay trade statistics reveal a resource-for-resource complementarity—Paraguay ships raw agricultural goods (meat, grains) while importing processed foods and industrial inputs.
• Strategic Interdependence: The partnership hinges on agricultural trade, with Uruguay adding value through processed goods, though export declines signal potential demand shifts.

This bilateral trade snapshot is based on verified customs data from the yTrade database.

Paraguay-Uruguay Trade Trend in Q4 2024

Paraguay Export Performance: Shipments to Uruguay

• Total Volume: $42.84M in Q4 2024.
• Growth Trend & Context: YoY declines persisted across all months, with November (-72.54%) marking the sharpest drop. No trade policy shifts were reported to explain the contraction.
• Key Volatility: December saw an 18.98% MoM rebound, though YoY remained negative (-34.27%).

Paraguay Import Performance: Sourcing from Uruguay

• Total Volume: $32.57M in Q4 2024.
• Growth Trend & Context: Mixed YoY performance—October (+32.37%) surged, but November (-6.4%) and December (+7.16%) were subdued. No news-driven disruptions were noted.
• Key Volatility: October’s imports peaked at $13.45M (20.83% MoM growth), then fell sharply in November (-23.36%).

Paraguay - Uruguay Trade Balance & Market Dynamics

• Net Position: Paraguay held a $10.27M trade surplus with Uruguay (Exports: $42.84M > Imports: $32.57M).
• Relationship Status: Maintained a net exporter role, though export declines YoY warrant monitoring for demand shifts.

Paraguay Import Trend from Uruguay 2024 Q4 (Source: yTrade)**

Paraguay Export Trend to Uruguay 2024 Q4 (Source: yTrade)**

Get Historical Paraguay Uruguay Trade Records

Paraguay-Uruguay Top Trading Products in Q4 2024

Paraguay Export Profile: What Does Paraguay Sell to Uruguay

• Top Commodity: Rank #1 export is HS 02 (Meat and edible meat offal) at 27.64% of total exports to Uruguay.
• Demand Driver: Uruguay likely imports these for consumer market needs, given the dominance of food products (HS 02, 10, 23).
• Concentration: The top 3 exports (HS 02, 10, 23) account for 65.05% of total exports, indicating high trade concentration in agricultural goods.

Paraguay Import Profile: What Does Paraguay Buy from Uruguay

• Top Commodity: Rank #1 import is HS 11 (Milling products, malt, starches) at 19.94% of total imports from Uruguay.
• Dependency Nature: Imports are primarily agricultural and industrial inputs (HS 11, 38, 30), suggesting food security and processing dependencies.

Paraguay - Uruguay Trade Relationship Dynamics

• The Exchange Model: Resource-for-Resource Complementarity. Paraguay exports raw agricultural products (meat, grains) to Uruguay, while importing processed agricultural goods and industrial inputs.
• Value Chain Position: Uruguay holds a slightly higher value-add position, with imports like HS 38 (chemical products) and HS 30 (pharmaceuticals) indicating more processed goods compared to Paraguay’s raw commodity exports.

Import Analysis by Product: Uruguay to Paraguay (Source: yTrade)

Export Analysis by Product: Paraguay to Uruguay (Source: yTrade)

Check Detailed Paraguay-Uruguay Trade HS Code Breakdown

Future Outlook & Strategic Recommendations

Forecast

Paraguay’s trade surplus with Uruguay is expected to narrow in early 2025, driven by persistent YoY export declines in key agricultural commodities (HS 02, 10, 23). The rebound in December shipments suggests potential stabilization, but demand volatility in Uruguay’s consumer market remains a risk. Import growth from Uruguay may accelerate, particularly for processed agricultural goods (HS 11) and industrial inputs (HS 38, 30), reinforcing Paraguay’s dependency on value-added products. Traders should prepare for a period of consolidation, with bilateral trade volumes likely to remain below pre-2024 levels unless new demand drivers emerge.

Strategic Moves

• Diversify Export Markets: Reduce reliance on Uruguay by targeting alternative buyers for Paraguay’s meat and grain exports (HS 02, 10) in neighboring Argentina or Brazil, where demand is more stable.
• Secure Forward Contracts: Lock in prices for critical imports like milling products (HS 11) and pharmaceuticals (HS 30) to mitigate supply chain disruptions and input cost fluctuations.
• Invest in Local Processing: Shift from raw commodity exports to higher-value processed goods (e.g., packaged meat, fortified flour) to capture more of the value chain and reduce Uruguay’s pricing leverage.

Frequently Asked Questions

How did Paraguay - Uruguay trade perform in 2024 Q4?

Paraguay's exports to Uruguay totaled $42.84M in Q4 2024, with persistent YoY declines. Imports from Uruguay reached $32.57M, showing mixed YoY growth but no major disruptions.

What are the top exports from Paraguay to Uruguay?

The top exports are HS 02 (Meat and edible meat offal), HS 10 (Cereals), and HS 23 (Residues from food industries), accounting for 65.05% of total exports.

What does Paraguay import from Uruguay?

Paraguay primarily imports HS 11 (Milling products, malt, starches), HS 38 (Chemical products), and HS 30 (Pharmaceuticals), reflecting a focus on processed agricultural and industrial inputs.

What is the trade balance between Paraguay and Uruguay?

Paraguay held a $10.27M trade surplus with Uruguay in Q4 2024, maintaining its net exporter role despite YoY export declines.