Paraguay - Uruguay Trade 2023 Q4: Surplus Surge

Key Market Takeaways: Paraguay - Uruguay Trade

The bilateral trade relationship between Paraguay and Uruguay surged with Paraguay dominating as a net exporter in Q4 2023.

• Economic Pulse: Paraguay posted an $83.85M trade surplus, exporting $113.25M (up sharply YoY) while imports from Uruguay fell -27.23% to $29.40M.
• Exchange Structure: Paraguay - Uruguay trade statistics reveal a resource-for-tech complementarity—Paraguay supplies cereals (30% of exports) while importing processed chemicals (18% of imports).
• Strategic Interdependence: High reliance on agricultural exports (73% of Paraguay’s top 3 goods) signals Uruguay’s role as a buyer of raw materials, with limited diversification.

This bilateral trade snapshot is based on verified customs data from the yTrade database.

Paraguay-Uruguay Trade Trend in Q4 2023

Paraguay Export Performance: Shipments to Uruguay

• Total Volume: Paraguay exported $113.25M worth of goods to Uruguay in Q4 2023.
• Growth Trend & Context: Exports surged YoY, peaking at +183.51% in October. Despite a sharp -50.3% MoM drop in December, the quarter closed with robust annual growth.
• Key Volatility: November saw the highest monthly exports ($48.61M), while December’s plunge marked the steepest decline.

Paraguay Import Performance: Sourcing from Uruguay

• Total Volume: Imports from Uruguay totaled $29.40M in Q4 2023.
• Growth Trend & Context: YoY imports fell sharply, averaging -27.23%, with December hitting -30.15%. No policy shifts or disruptions were reported to explain the contraction.
• Key Volatility: October recorded the highest monthly imports ($10.16M), but December’s -25.3% MoM drop was the steepest.

Paraguay - Uruguay Trade Balance & Market Dynamics

• Net Position: Paraguay posted a trade surplus of $83.85M (Exports: $113.25M; Imports: $29.40M).
• Relationship Status: Paraguay dominates as a net exporter, with exports nearly 4x the import volume, signaling strong outbound trade leverage over Uruguay.

Paraguay Import Trend from Uruguay 2023 Q4 (Source: yTrade)**

Paraguay Export Trend to Uruguay 2023 Q4 (Source: yTrade)**

Get Historical Paraguay Uruguay Trade Records

Paraguay-Uruguay Top Trading Products in Q4 2023

Paraguay Export Profile: What Does Paraguay Sell to Uruguay

• Top Commodity: Cereals (HS Code 10) dominate exports, accounting for 30.09% of total value.
• Demand Driver: Uruguay likely uses these for industrial processing or domestic food supply.
• Concentration: The top 3 exports (HS Codes 10, 12, 23) make up 72.9% of trade, indicating high reliance on agricultural products.

Paraguay Import Profile: What Does Paraguay Buy from Uruguay

• Top Commodity: Chemical residues (HS Code 38) lead imports with a 17.83% share.
• Dependency Nature: Imports suggest industrial input dependency, particularly for chemicals and pharmaceuticals (HS Codes 30, 31).

Paraguay - Uruguay Trade Relationship Dynamics

• The Exchange Model: Resource-for-Tech Complementarity. Paraguay exports raw agricultural goods (cereals, oilseeds) while importing processed chemicals and machinery.
• Value Chain Position: Uruguay holds the higher value-add position, supplying advanced industrial goods (e.g., pharmaceuticals, plastics) against Paraguay’s commodity-heavy exports.

Import Analysis by Product: Uruguay to Paraguay (Source: yTrade)

Export Analysis by Product: Paraguay to Uruguay (Source: yTrade)

Check Detailed Paraguay-Uruguay Trade HS Code Breakdown

Future Outlook & Strategic Recommendations

Forecast

Paraguay’s trade surplus with Uruguay is expected to widen further in 2024, driven by sustained demand for agricultural commodities (HS Code 10) and Uruguay’s reliance on processed inputs. However, December’s sharp export contraction signals potential volatility, possibly tied to seasonal factors or supply chain bottlenecks. If Uruguay’s industrial demand remains stable, Paraguay’s cereal and oilseed exports could see steady growth, while imports of chemicals and machinery may stagnate unless new trade incentives emerge. Traders should monitor Uruguay’s domestic processing capacity and policy shifts that could alter import dependency.

Strategic Moves

• Lock in Long-Term Cereal Contracts: With cereals dominating exports, Paraguayan agribusinesses should secure multi-year supply agreements with Uruguayan processors to stabilize revenue and mitigate price swings.
• Diversify Chemical Sourcing: Given Uruguay’s declining chemical exports (HS Code 38), Paraguayan manufacturers must explore alternative suppliers in Brazil or Argentina to reduce dependency on a shrinking market.
• Push for Higher-Value Agri-Exports: Instead of raw cereals, Paraguay should invest in milling and refining capabilities to export semi-processed goods (e.g., flour, bran) and capture more value from Uruguay’s food industry.

Frequently Asked Questions

How did Paraguay - Uruguay trade perform in 2023 Q4?

Paraguay exported $113.25M to Uruguay, surging +183.51% YoY in October, while imports fell -27.23% YoY to $29.40M.

What are the top exports from Paraguay to Uruguay?

Cereals (HS Code 10) dominate, followed by oilseeds (HS Code 12) and residues from food industries (HS Code 23), accounting for 72.9% of total exports.

What does Paraguay import from Uruguay?

Chemical residues (HS Code 38) lead imports, with pharmaceuticals (HS Code 30) and fertilizers (HS Code 31) also significant, reflecting industrial input dependency.

What is the trade balance between Paraguay and Uruguay?

Paraguay posted a trade surplus of $83.85M, with exports nearly 4x higher than imports, signaling strong outbound trade leverage.