Paraguay - Uruguay Trade 2023 Q3: Surplus Rebounds Strongly

Key Market Takeaways: Paraguay - Uruguay Trade

The bilateral trade relationship between Paraguay and Uruguay rebounded with a widening surplus in Q3 2023.

• Economic Pulse: Paraguay posted a $36.07M trade surplus, with exports ($69.51M) doubling imports ($33.44M). Volatility marked both sides—exports recovered after a July slump, while imports collapsed sharply.
• Exchange Structure: Paraguay - Uruguay trade statistics reveal resource-for-food complementarity: cereals and raw agri-exports (67% of total) flow north, while processed milling products (22% of imports) return south.
• Strategic Interdependence: The partnership hinges on Uruguay’s value-add processing of Paraguayan commodities, signaling deep supply chain integration.

This bilateral trade snapshot is based on verified customs data from the yTrade database.

Paraguay-Uruguay Trade Trend in Q3 2023

Paraguay Export Performance: Shipments to Uruguay

• Total Volume: Q3 2023 exports to Uruguay totaled 69.51M.
• Growth Trend & Context:
  • Exports showed mixed YoY performance: -19.08% in July, +4.61% in August, and +27.73% in September. The rebound in August and September offset the earlier contraction.
  • Key Volatility: July saw a 55.58% MoM surge, while September maintained momentum with a 13.45% MoM rise.

Paraguay Import Performance: Sourcing from Uruguay

• Total Volume: Q3 2023 imports from Uruguay reached 33.44M.
• Growth Trend & Context:
  • Imports declined YoY across all months: -15.49% (July), -12.07% (August), and -49.13% (September). The sharpest drop occurred in September.
  • Key Volatility: July posted a 46.49% MoM jump, but September collapsed -39.5% MoM.

Paraguay - Uruguay Trade Balance & Market Dynamics

• Net Position: Paraguay recorded a trade surplus of 36.07M (Exports: 69.51M > Imports: 33.44M).
• Relationship Status: Paraguay is a net exporter to Uruguay, with exports doubling imports. The widening surplus in Q3 reflects stronger export recovery despite import contraction.

Paraguay Import Trend from Uruguay 2023 Q3 (Source: yTrade)**

Paraguay Export Trend to Uruguay 2023 Q3 (Source: yTrade)**

Get Historical Paraguay Uruguay Trade Records

Paraguay-Uruguay Top Trading Products in Q3 2023

Paraguay Export Profile: What Does Paraguay Sell to Uruguay

• Top Commodity: Cereals (HS Code 10) dominate exports, accounting for 39.59% of total value.
• Demand Driver: Uruguay likely imports these for food security or industrial processing (e.g., animal feed, milling).
• Concentration: The trade is highly concentrated, with the top 3 exports (HS Codes 10, 02, 23) making up 67.09% of total exports.

Paraguay Import Profile: What Does Paraguay Buy from Uruguay

• Top Commodity: Milling products (HS Code 11) lead imports, representing 22.11% of total value.
• Dependency Nature: Paraguay relies on Uruguay for processed agricultural goods, suggesting food supply chain integration.

Paraguay - Uruguay Trade Relationship Dynamics

• The Exchange Model: Resource-for-Food Complementarity. Paraguay exports raw agricultural commodities (cereals, meat) and imports processed food products (milling outputs, dairy).
• Value Chain Position: Uruguay holds a higher value-add position, as its top exports to Paraguay (HS Codes 11, 38, 30) include processed goods, while Paraguay’s exports are primarily raw materials.

Import Analysis by Product: Uruguay to Paraguay (Source: yTrade)

Export Analysis by Product: Paraguay to Uruguay (Source: yTrade)

Check Detailed Paraguay-Uruguay Trade HS Code Breakdown

Future Outlook & Strategic Recommendations

Forecast

Paraguay’s trade surplus with Uruguay is expected to widen further in Q4 2023, driven by sustained demand for cereals (HS Code 10) and a potential rebound in meat exports (HS Code 02). However, import volatility—particularly the sharp September decline—suggests Uruguay’s processed goods sector may face supply chain disruptions or shifting Paraguayan demand. Traders should anticipate price fluctuations in milling products (HS Code 11) and dairy, as Paraguay’s reliance on Uruguayan processed goods could tighten supply. Long-term, the resource-for-food complementarity will likely deepen, but short-term imbalances may require tactical adjustments.

Strategic Moves

• Lock in Cereal Export Contracts: With Uruguay’s food security needs growing, Paraguayan exporters should secure forward contracts to capitalize on stable demand and mitigate price swings.
• Diversify Processed Food Imports: Given Uruguay’s declining shipments, Paraguayan buyers must scout alternative suppliers (e.g., Argentina, Brazil) for milling products (HS Code 11) to avoid shortages.
• Invest in Value-Add Processing: Paraguay should reduce reliance on Uruguayan processed goods by expanding domestic milling and dairy capacity, leveraging its raw material advantage.

Frequently Asked Questions

How did Paraguay - Uruguay trade perform in 2023 Q3?

Paraguay exported $69.51M to Uruguay and imported $33.44M, with mixed YoY export growth (-19.08% in July, +4.61% in August, +27.73% in September) and declining imports (-15.49% to -49.13% YoY).

What are the top exports from Paraguay to Uruguay?

Cereals (HS Code 10) dominate, accounting for 39.59% of exports, followed by meat (HS Code 02) and residues (HS Code 23), totaling 67.09% of export value.

What does Paraguay import from Uruguay?

Milling products (HS Code 11) lead imports at 22.11%, reflecting Uruguay’s role in supplying processed agricultural goods to Paraguay.

What is the trade balance between Paraguay and Uruguay?

Paraguay recorded a trade surplus of $36.07M, with exports doubling imports. The gap widened due to stronger export recovery and import contraction.