Paraguay - Japan Trade 2024 Q4: Deficit & Export Collapse

Key Market Takeaways: Paraguay - Japan Trade

The bilateral trade relationship between Paraguay and Japan is marked by severe export declines and heavy import dependence in Q4 2024.

• Deficit-Driven Trade: Paraguay posted a $73.84M trade deficit with Japan, importing $76.25M (led by vehicles) while exports collapsed to just $2.41M (-89.99% YoY in October).
• Resource-for-Tech Exchange: Paraguay - Japan trade statistics reveal a lopsided structure: oil seeds (83% of exports) flow to Japan, which supplies vehicles (67% of imports) and machinery.
• Asymmetric Interdependence: Japan holds the high-value position, with Paraguay reliant on its industrial goods while offering minimal agricultural inputs.

This bilateral trade snapshot is based on verified customs data from the yTrade database.

Paraguay-Japan Trade Trend in Q4 2024

Paraguay Export Performance: Shipments to Japan

• Total Volume: $2.41M in Q4 2024.
• Growth Trend & Context:
  • YoY declines were severe: -89.99% in Oct, -57.7% in Nov, -32.63% in Dec. No mitigating news to explain the collapse.
• Key Volatility: MoM drops accelerated in Nov (-47.26%) after Oct's -27.63% contraction.

Paraguay Import Performance: Sourcing from Japan

• Total Volume: $76.25M in Q4 2024.
• Growth Trend & Context:
  • Mixed YoY growth: +4.4% in Oct, +9.38% in Nov, then slowed to +2.42% in Dec.
• Key Volatility: Oct saw a 40.37% MoM surge, followed by two consecutive monthly declines (-14.71% in Nov, -4.96% in Dec).

Paraguay - Japan Trade Balance & Market Dynamics

• Net Position: Trade deficit of $73.84M (Imports $76.25M vs. Exports $2.41M).
• Relationship Status: Heavy import dependence on Japan, with exports negligible by comparison.

Paraguay Import Trend from Japan 2024 Q4 (Source: yTrade)**

Paraguay Export Trend to Japan 2024 Q4 (Source: yTrade)**

Get Historical Paraguay Japan Trade Records

Paraguay-Japan Top Trading Products in Q4 2024

Paraguay Export Profile: What Does Paraguay Sell to Japan

• Top Commodity: Rank #1 export is HS Code 12 (Oil seeds and oleaginous fruits) with 83.10% share.
• Demand Driver: Japan uses these for industrial processing, likely in food production or biofuel.
• Concentration: Trade is highly concentrated, with HS Code 12 dominating at over 80% of exports.

Paraguay Import Profile: What Does Paraguay Buy from Japan

• Top Commodity: Rank #1 import is HS Code 87 (Vehicles) with 66.82% share.
• Dependency Nature: Critical technology dependency, as vehicles and machinery (HS Codes 84, 85) dominate imports.

Paraguay - Japan Trade Relationship Dynamics

• The Exchange Model: Resource-for-Tech Complementarity. Paraguay exports raw materials (oil seeds) and imports high-value manufactured goods (vehicles, machinery).
• Value Chain Position: Japan holds the higher value-add position, supplying advanced industrial goods while Paraguay provides agricultural inputs.

Import Analysis by Product: Japan to Paraguay (Source: yTrade)

Export Analysis by Product: Paraguay to Japan (Source: yTrade)

Check Detailed Paraguay-Japan Trade HS Code Breakdown

Future Outlook & Strategic Recommendations

Forecast

The Paraguay-Japan trade relationship faces significant headwinds in the near term, with Paraguay's export collapse to Japan showing no immediate signs of recovery. The steep YoY declines in Q4 2024 suggest structural weaknesses in demand or competitiveness, while Japan's slowing import growth indicates softening appetite for Paraguayan commodities. Given the heavy reliance on a single export category (oil seeds), Paraguay’s trade deficit with Japan is likely to persist unless diversification or value-addition strategies are implemented. Traders should brace for continued volatility, particularly in raw material pricing and industrial demand cycles.

Strategic Moves

• Diversify Export Basket: Paraguayan exporters must reduce dependence on oil seeds by exploring secondary commodities with potential in Japan, such as processed foods or niche agricultural products.
• Negotiate Long-Term Supply Contracts: Given Japan’s stable demand for industrial inputs, Paraguayan suppliers should secure multi-year agreements to stabilize revenue streams amid market fluctuations.
• Reduce Import Dependency: Paraguay should incentivize local production or alternative sourcing for high-value Japanese imports (e.g., vehicles, machinery) to narrow the trade deficit and build domestic industrial capacity.

Frequently Asked Questions

How did Paraguay - Japan trade perform in 2024 Q4?

Paraguay's exports to Japan plummeted by severe YoY declines (-89.99% in Oct, -57.7% in Nov, -32.63% in Dec), totaling $2.41M. Imports from Japan grew modestly (+4.4% in Oct, +9.38% in Nov, +2.42% in Dec), reaching $76.25M.

What are the top exports from Paraguay to Japan?

Oil seeds and oleaginous fruits (HS Code 12) dominate Paraguay's exports to Japan, accounting for 83.10% of total shipments.

What does Paraguay import from Japan?

Vehicles (HS Code 87) are Paraguay's top import from Japan, representing 66.82% of imports, followed by machinery (HS Codes 84, 85).

What is the trade balance between Paraguay and Japan?

Paraguay recorded a trade deficit of $73.84M with Japan in Q4 2024, driven by heavy import dependence on Japanese vehicles and machinery.