Paraguay - India Trade 2025 Q1: Deficit Narrows Sharply

Key Market Takeaways: Paraguay - India Trade

The bilateral trade relationship between Paraguay and India showed volatile growth with a sharp export recovery in Q1 2025.

• Deficit-Driven Trade: Paraguay posted a -$70.86M trade deficit ($95.18M imports vs. $24.32M exports), though March’s 658% YoY export surge narrowed the gap.
• Resource-for-Tech Exchange: Paraguay - India trade statistics reveal an asymmetrical dependency—Paraguay supplies 81.86% fats/oils (HS15) while relying on Indian mineral fuels (HS27, 31.87% share).
• Complementary but Unbalanced: India’s value-add exports (machinery/tech) contrast Paraguay’s commodity-heavy profile, signaling untapped diversification potential.

This bilateral trade snapshot is based on verified customs data from the yTrade database.

Paraguay-India Trade Trend in Q1 2025

Paraguay Export Performance: Shipments to India

• Total Volume: $24.32M in Q1 2025.
• Growth Trend & Context:
  • Exports surged YoY in March (+658.73%), offsetting a weak start (Jan: -43.73% YoY).
  • February and March saw explosive MoM growth (+301.68% and +261.0%, respectively), signaling a sharp recovery.
• Key Volatility: March was the standout month, with both MoM and YoY growth exceeding 250%.

Paraguay Import Performance: Sourcing from India

• Total Volume: $95.18M in Q1 2025.
• Growth Trend & Context:
  • Imports declined YoY in January (-10.08%) and February (-31.18%) but rebounded in March (+16.22%).
  • MoM swings were stark: February dropped -44.12%, while March jumped +63.5%.
• Key Volatility: February was the weakest month (lowest value at $21.51M), followed by a partial recovery.

Paraguay - India Trade Balance & Market Dynamics

• Net Position: Paraguay ran a trade deficit of -$70.86M (Imports $95.18M > Exports $24.32M).
• Relationship Status: Heavy reliance on Indian imports, with exports recovering but insufficient to offset the gap. The deficit narrowed slightly in March as exports surged.

Paraguay Import Trend from India 2025 Q1 (Source: yTrade)**

Paraguay Export Trend to India 2025 Q1 (Source: yTrade)**

Get Historical Paraguay India Trade Records

Paraguay-India Top Trading Products in Q1 2025

Paraguay Export Profile: What Does Paraguay Sell to India

• Top Commodity: HS Code 15 (Animal/vegetable fats and oils) dominates with 81.86% share.
• Demand Driver: India likely uses these for industrial processing (food manufacturing, biofuels).
• Concentration: Extreme reliance on one category (>80% share).

Paraguay Import Profile: What Does Paraguay Buy from India

• Top Commodity: HS Code 27 (Mineral fuels/oils) accounts for 31.87% of imports.
• Dependency Nature: Energy security dependency, with India supplying critical fuel inputs.

Paraguay - India Trade Relationship Dynamics

• The Exchange Model: Resource-for-Tech Complementarity – Paraguay exports raw materials (fats/oils) while importing energy and machinery from India.
• Value Chain Position: India holds higher value-add position (exports include machinery/tech under HS 84/85), while Paraguay remains a commodity supplier.

Import Analysis by Product: India to Paraguay (Source: yTrade)

Export Analysis by Product: Paraguay to India (Source: yTrade)

Check Detailed Paraguay-India Trade HS Code Breakdown

Future Outlook & Strategic Recommendations

Forecast

The Paraguay-India trade relationship is poised for accelerated growth in Q2 2025, driven by India’s sustained demand for Paraguayan fats/oils (HS 15) and Paraguay’s reliance on Indian mineral fuels (HS 27). The explosive recovery in Paraguayan exports to India (+658.73% YoY in March) signals a potential shift toward narrowing the trade deficit, provided this momentum holds. However, volatility risks remain—particularly if India’s energy imports fluctuate—making March’s surge a critical indicator of future stability. Traders should prepare for both expansion and price swings in this complementary exchange of raw materials for high-value tech and fuel.

Strategic Moves

• Diversify Export Basket: Paraguayan exporters must reduce over-reliance on HS 15 by exploring secondary commodities (e.g., soybeans, meat products) to mitigate price shocks and capture broader Indian demand.
• Lock in Energy Contracts: Paraguayan importers should secure long-term agreements for Indian mineral fuels (HS 27) to hedge against supply volatility and rising global energy costs.
• Leverage Tech Transfers: Paraguay’s industrial sector should negotiate joint ventures with Indian machinery/tech exporters (HS 84/85) to upgrade local value-added production and rebalance the trade deficit.

Frequently Asked Questions

How did Paraguay - India trade perform in 2025 Q1?

Paraguay's exports to India surged in Q1 2025, reaching $24.32M, while imports from India totaled $95.18M. The trade showed volatile growth, with exports rebounding sharply in March after a weak start.

What are the top exports from Paraguay to India?

Animal/vegetable fats and oils (HS Code 15) dominate Paraguay's exports to India, accounting for 81.86% of total shipments.

What does Paraguay import from India?

Mineral fuels and oils (HS Code 27) are Paraguay's top imports from India, making up 31.87% of total imports.

What is the trade balance between Paraguay and India?

Paraguay recorded a trade deficit of -$70.86M with India in Q1 2025. The gap narrowed slightly in March as exports surged.