Paraguay - India Trade 2024 Q4: Deficit Widens

Key Market Takeaways: Paraguay - India Trade

The bilateral trade relationship between Paraguay and India is marked by a widening deficit driven by surging Indian imports in Q4 2024.

• Deficit Dominance: Paraguay recorded a $113.29M trade deficit ($6.03M exports vs. $119.32M imports), with imports from India doubling in December alone.
• Resource-for-Tech Exchange: Paraguay - India trade statistics show raw materials (iron, steel) flow to India, while Paraguay relies on Indian energy (mineral fuels) and industrial inputs (plastics, machinery).
• Asymmetric Complementarity: Heavy Paraguayan dependence on Indian processed goods highlights India’s stronger value-chain position.

This bilateral trade snapshot is based on verified customs data from the yTrade database.

Paraguay-India Trade Trend in Q4 2024

Paraguay Export Performance: Shipments to India

• Total Volume: $6.03M in Q4 2024.
• Growth Trend & Context:
  • YoY declines persisted across all months, with November (-86.14%) marking the sharpest contraction.
  • December showed a partial recovery (MoM +51.07%) but remained -8.47% below prior-year levels.
• Key Volatility: October’s -70.17% MoM drop was the steepest monthly decline.

Paraguay Import Performance: Sourcing from India

• Total Volume: $119.32M in Q4 2024.
• Growth Trend & Context:
  • Strong YoY growth throughout Q4, peaking in December (+119.67%).
  • December also saw the highest MoM surge (+39.0%), signaling accelerated demand.
• Key Volatility: December’s import value ($49.92M) was the quarter’s peak, doubling November’s volume.

Paraguay - India Trade Balance & Market Dynamics

• Net Position: Paraguay recorded a trade deficit of $113.29M (Exports $6.03M vs. Imports $119.32M).
• Relationship Status: Heavy reliance on Indian imports, with exports marginal by comparison. The deficit widened sharply YoY due to surging import demand.

Paraguay Import Trend from India 2024 Q4 (Source: yTrade)**

Paraguay Export Trend to India 2024 Q4 (Source: yTrade)**

Get Historical Paraguay India Trade Records

Paraguay-India Top Trading Products in Q4 2024

Paraguay Export Profile: What Does Paraguay Sell to India

• Top Commodity: Iron and steel (HS 72) dominate exports, accounting for 46.96% of total exports to India.
• Demand Driver: India likely imports these raw materials for industrial processing, particularly in construction and manufacturing.
• Concentration: Trade is highly concentrated, with iron and steel (HS 72) and aluminum (HS 76) together making up 67.76% of exports.

Paraguay Import Profile: What Does Paraguay Buy from India

• Top Commodity: Mineral fuels (HS 27) lead imports, representing 38.34% of total imports from India.
• Dependency Nature: Paraguay relies on India for energy security, as mineral fuels (HS 27) are critical for power generation and transportation.

Paraguay - India Trade Relationship Dynamics

• The Exchange Model: Resource-for-Tech Complementarity. Paraguay exports raw materials (iron, steel, aluminum) to India, while importing energy (mineral fuels) and industrial inputs (plastics, chemicals).
• Value Chain Position: India holds the higher value-add position, supplying processed goods (HS 27, 38, 39) and machinery (HS 84, 85), while Paraguay provides primary commodities (HS 72, 76).

Import Analysis by Product: India to Paraguay (Source: yTrade)

Export Analysis by Product: Paraguay to India (Source: yTrade)

Check Detailed Paraguay-India Trade HS Code Breakdown

Future Outlook & Strategic Recommendations

Forecast

The Paraguay-India trade relationship is poised for continued imbalance in the near term, with India’s demand for Paraguayan raw materials (iron, steel, aluminum) likely to remain steady but insufficient to offset Paraguay’s growing reliance on Indian mineral fuels and industrial goods. The widening trade deficit ($113.29M in Q4 2024) signals structural dependency, and without intervention, this gap may expand further as India’s export momentum accelerates. However, December’s partial recovery in Paraguayan exports (+51.07% MoM) suggests potential for stabilization if supply-side constraints are addressed. Traders should prepare for volatility in commodity prices, particularly for HS 72 and 76, given India’s industrial demand cycles.

Strategic Moves

• Diversify Export Markets: Paraguayan exporters must reduce overreliance on India by targeting alternative buyers in Southeast Asia or Africa for iron, steel, and aluminum to mitigate demand shocks.
• Lock in Fuel Supply Contracts: Given Paraguay’s heavy dependence on Indian mineral fuels (HS 27), importers should negotiate long-term agreements to hedge against price spikes and ensure energy security.
• Upgrade Value-Add Capacity: Paraguay should invest in downstream processing for its raw materials (e.g., steel fabrication) to capture higher margins and reduce the trade deficit with India.

Frequently Asked Questions

How did Paraguay - India trade perform in 2024 Q4?

Paraguay's exports to India totaled $6.03M in Q4 2024, with persistent YoY declines, while imports from India surged to $119.32M, driven by strong demand, especially in December (+119.67% YoY).

What are the top exports from Paraguay to India?

Iron and steel (HS 72) dominate Paraguay's exports to India, accounting for 46.96% of total exports, followed by aluminum (HS 76), together making up 67.76% of shipments.

What does Paraguay import from India?

Mineral fuels (HS 27) are Paraguay's top import from India, representing 38.34% of total imports, critical for energy security, alongside industrial inputs like plastics and chemicals.

What is the trade balance between Paraguay and India?

Paraguay recorded a trade deficit of $113.29M with India in Q4 2024, driven by heavy reliance on Indian imports and marginal export volumes, with the gap widening YoY.